Privia Health Group (PRVA) AI Stock Analysis

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Privia Health Group

(NASDAQ:PRVA)

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Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:$23.50▼(-2.25% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM cash-flow deterioration and a very high P/E valuation. Offsetting this, the earnings call tone and raised guidance were strongly positive, and technicals show constructive near-term momentum with improving profitability and low reported leverage supporting the broader setup.

Positive Factors

Provider and attributed-lives growthRapid growth in providers and attributed lives expands Privia’s platform reach and increases the population over which it can deliver care coordination and value-based services. This scale can strengthen payer relevance, support recurring revenue growth, and improve operating leverage over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp cash-flow deteriorationThe sharp TTM reversal from historically positive cash generation creates a meaningful earnings-quality concern, even as reported profitability improves. Negative cash flow can restrict internally funded expansion and raises the importance of working-capital normalization and timely MSSP-related settlements.

Privia Health Group (PRVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $3.07B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 86.2
Beta (1Y): 0.51
Revenue Growth: 19.19%
EPS Growth: 84.88%
Country: US
Employees: 1,226
Sector: Healthcare
Sector Strength: 51
Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services

Privia Health Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Privia Health Group, Inc. functions as a national entity focused on empowering physicians throughout the United States. It partners with medical groups, health plans, and health systems, with the primary objective of optimizing physician practices, e...

Privia Health Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:7.32%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive, supported by double-digit growth in providers, attributed lives, practice collections, and adjusted EBITDA; raised 2026 guidance; a debt-free balance sheet; and continued acquisition and value-based-care expansion. The company also identified industry disruption, timing-related cash-flow variability, and the Montana partnership exit, but management characterized the Montana impact as immaterial to adjusted EBITDA and described the broader business outlook as strong.

Positive Updates

Strong Provider and Attributed-Lives Growth

Implemented providers grew 12.2% year over year to 5,893 at September 30, 2026, while value-based attributed lives increased 19.2% compared with the first nine months of 2025. The company expects to reach 6,000 clinicians by year-end, representing 11.5% growth over 2025.

Negative Updates

Montana Partnership Exit

Privia will exit its Montana partnership with Surgery Partners effective January 2027. The partnership supports 69 providers and generates approximately $23 million in annual practice collections in the state, although management expects no material impact to adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

Company Guidance

For 2026, Privia Health raised its outlook above the high end of initial guidance across all key financial metrics: implemented providers are expected to reach the high end of initial guidance of 6,000 clinicians, attributed lives growth is expected to increase 9.2% over 2025, practice collections are expected to grow 13.1%, care margin 16.3%, and adjusted EBITDA 23.9%, all at their respective midpoints; the company expects approximately 70% of full-year adjusted EBITDA to convert to free cash flow and to end the year with at least $520 million in cash. The American Choice Healthcare transaction is expected to have minimal impact on all key metrics in 2026 and positively contribute to attributed lives and adjusted EBITDA in 2027, while the Montana exit is expected to have no material impact to adjusted EBITDA in 2027. The company’s long-term target for adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of care margin is 30%-35%, and on a go-forward basis it is targeting 70%-75% conversion.

Privia Health Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are improving with a multi-year shift to profitability and stronger TTM revenue, and reported leverage is very low. However, TTM operating and free cash flow swung sharply negative versus prior years, creating a meaningful earnings-quality and near-term cash-flow risk that weighs heavily on the financial score.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

22Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.43B	2.12B	1.74B	1.66B	1.36B	966.22M
Gross Profit	256.56M	209.43M	176.85M	161.50M	134.78M	63.66M
EBITDA	74.49M	53.84M	35.14M	35.55M	-14.01M	-214.97M
Net Income	34.75M	22.92M	14.38M	23.08M	-8.59M	-188.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.37B	1.14B	999.90M	792.81M	686.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	446.28M	479.69M	491.15M	389.51M	347.99M	320.58M
Total Debt	8.26M	9.53M	5.59M	8.29M	11.50M	46.50M
Total Liabilities	690.80M	578.43M	452.34M	392.51M	273.76M	236.19M
Stockholders Equity	815.72M	737.22M	635.18M	561.44M	499.09M	426.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	108.01M	162.20M	104.26M	80.67M	47.09M	54.51M
Operating Cash Flow	108.07M	163.40M	109.28M	80.78M	47.20M	55.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-115.31M	-181.57M	-10.32M	-48.01M	-104.00K	-32.77M
Financing Cash Flow	12.17M	6.70M	2.68M	8.74M	-19.68M	213.66M

Privia Health Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price24.04

Price Trends

50DMA21.26Positive

100DMA22.70Positive

200DMA22.66Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.76Negative

RSI66.41Neutral

STOCH84.76Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.70, above the 50-day MA of 21.26, and above the 200-day MA of 22.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRVA.

Privia Health Group Risk Analysis

Privia Health Group disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Privia Health Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.We may encounter difficulty acquiring entities or assets, face challenges integrating the operations of acquired businesses or realizing expected results or become liable for unknown or contingent liabilities as a result of acquisitions.Q4, 2025

Privia Health Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

PRVA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAY	76Outperform	$5.64B	41.20	3.41%	―	21.43%	9.80%
CCLD	73Outperform	$111.90M	20.42	24.48%	―	14.86%	214.99%
PHR	69Neutral	$814.99M	74.39	3.01%	―	12.93%	―
PRVA	59Neutral	$3.11B	86.16	4.50%	―	19.19%	84.88%
EVH	58Neutral	$542.91M	-1.12	-129.54%	―	14.06%	-189.46%
Sector *	51Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
HCAT	51Neutral	$109.66M	-0.51	-128.24%	―	-13.88%	-78.38%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PRVA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
PRVA	Privia Health Group, Inc.	24.04	0.29	1.22%
CCLD	Carecloud, Inc.	2.65	-0.53	-16.67%
EVH	Evolent Health Inc.	4.99	0.83	19.95%
PHR	Phreesia	12.81	-9.72	-43.14%
HCAT	Health Catalyst	1.43	-0.92	-39.15%
WAY	Waystar Holding Corp.	28.84	-6.91	-19.33%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Privia Health Group AI Stock Analysis