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Primo Brands (PRMB)
NYSE:PRMB

Primo Brands (PRMB) AI Stock Analysis

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Primo Brands

(NYSE:PRMB)

63Neutral
Primo Brands benefits from strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, but profitability challenges and technical indicators suggest caution. Valuation concerns further moderate the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Business strategy
Primo is expanding its direct delivery service to include a broader brand portfolio for customers across the home and office delivery network.
Financial performance
EBITDA of $342 million were above consensus of $324 million.
Merger benefits
The merger with BlueTriton created a $7 billion revenue entity with leading market share in bottled water and consolidation potential in the healthy hydration market.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic conditions
Lowering estimates and targets due to weaker macroeconomic conditions.
Merger risks
Risks include the loss of a large retail customer, natural damage to water sources, and unforeseen difficulties in achieving merger cost synergies.
Tariff concerns
Lowering target on near-term tariff concerns.

Primo Brands (PRMB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Primo Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPrimo Water Corporation provides water direct to consumers and water filtration services in North America and Europe. It offers bottled water, purified bottled water, premium spring, sparkling and flavored water, mineral water, filtration equipment, and coffee; as well as water dispensers, and self-service refill drinking water. The company offers its products under the Primo, Alhambra, Crystal Rock, Mountain Valley, Deep Rock, Hinckley Springs, Crystal Springs, Kentwood Springs, Mount Olympus, Pureflo, Nursery, Sierra Springs, Sparkletts, Clear Mountain Natural Spring Water, Earth2O, Renü, Water Event Pure Water Solutions, Canadian Springs, Labrador Source, Decantae, Eden, Eden Springs, Chateaud'eau, and Mey Eden brands. It provides its services to residential customers, small and medium-sized businesses, and regional and national corporations and retailers. The company was formerly known as Cott Corporation and changed its name to Primo Water Corporation in March 2020. Primo Water Corporation was incorporated in 1955 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyPrimo Brands generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes direct-to-consumer sales, retail partnerships, and online platforms. The primary revenue streams come from the sale of its premium product lines through its e-commerce website and physical retail locations. Additionally, the company has established significant partnerships with major retailers to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility. Strategic collaborations and seasonal product launches further contribute to Primo Brands' earnings by driving customer engagement and increasing sales volume. The company also invests in marketing initiatives and brand development to strengthen its presence in the competitive consumer goods market.

Primo Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Primo Brands demonstrates robust revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, promising future operations. However, profitability challenges and increased financial leverage could impact long-term stability if not managed carefully.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Primo Brands has shown strong revenue growth over the years, particularly from 2023 to 2024 with a 9.65% increase. However, the net profit margin turned negative in 2024, indicating profitability challenges despite the positive growth trend. The gross profit margin remains strong at 31.48% for 2024, but the decline in EBIT margin from 8.64% in 2023 to 7.00% in 2024 suggests increased operating expenses or cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.65 in 2024, indicating higher financial leverage and potential risk if market conditions change. Despite this, the equity ratio remains stable at 30.77%, reflecting a reasonable level of asset financing through equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has turned negative due to the net loss in 2024, which is a point of concern for shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Primo Brands' cash flow metrics show resilience with a substantial increase in free cash flow by 164.52% from 2023 to 2024, indicating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting high-quality earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio in 2024 is negative due to the net loss, reflecting a need for caution in cash flow sustainability.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.15B4.70B4.44B1.58B1.95B
Gross Profit
1.62B1.35B994.20M891.00M1.11B
EBIT
360.30M406.00M23.30M103.00M-52.20M
EBITDA
693.60M711.70M358.20M241.10M131.20M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-16.40M92.80M-126.70M-3.20M-131.70M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
613.70M44.70M102.90M128.40M115.10M
Total Assets
11.19B5.15B5.38B3.72B3.60B
Total Debt
5.68B4.05B3.92B1.74B1.65B
Net Debt
5.07B4.01B3.81B1.61B1.54B
Total Liabilities
7.75B5.15B5.25B2.40B2.26B
Stockholders Equity
3.44B2.70M134.60M1.32B1.35B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
272.90M103.20M-228.40M135.70M52.90M
Operating Cash Flow
463.80M320.90M108.30M256.90M176.20M
Investing Cash Flow
474.40M-217.60M-319.40M-240.90M-178.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-362.90M-162.30M-147.70M-800.00K-91.10M

Primo Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price31.88
Price Trends
50DMA
32.87
Negative
100DMA
32.59
Negative
200DMA
28.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.31
Positive
RSI
41.93
Neutral
STOCH
40.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRMB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.62, below the 50-day MA of 32.87, and above the 200-day MA of 28.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRMB.

Primo Brands Risk Analysis

Primo Brands disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Primo Brands reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Primo Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$9.78B123.979.19%-5.98%-65.57%
KDKDP
74
Outperform
$44.93B29.966.13%2.73%3.95%-28.73%
KOKOF
74
Outperform
$4.84B15.4417.12%3.22%1.54%4.48%
73
Outperform
$4.11B21.9640.81%0.34%9.48%
66
Neutral
$10.04B20.0236.83%0.69%3.21%31.83%
64
Neutral
$8.66B14.634.98%174.64%3.54%3.46%
63
Neutral
$12.12B20.07-2.83%1.15%90.28%-105.48%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PRMB
Primo Brands
31.88
11.60
57.20%
KOF
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV
90.68
-4.11
-4.34%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
1,145.05
218.33
23.56%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
32.72
-0.53
-1.59%
FIZZ
National Beverage
43.14
-1.11
-2.51%
CELH
Celsius Holdings
38.94
-53.63
-57.93%

Primo Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Primo Brands' strong first-quarter performance with significant growth in net sales and EBITDA, driven by volume increases and successful cost synergy capture. Premium brands showed substantial growth, and the company is expanding distribution channels. However, challenges include the impact of a tornado on the Hawkins facility, minimal pricing contribution to sales growth, and tariff exposure on the dispenser business. Overall, the positive achievements outweigh the lowlights, leading to a favorable outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Performance
Primo Brands reported a 3% increase in comparable net sales to $1.61 billion, driven by a 2.8% volume increase and price/mix growth of 0.2%. Normalized comparable net sales growth was 4.2% when accounting for the leap day impact.
Significant EBITDA Growth
Comparable adjusted EBITDA rose to $342 million, marking a 12.1% increase compared to the prior year, with a margin of 21.2%, up 170 basis points.
Premium Brands Surge
Premium brands, Saratoga and Mountain Valley, reported a combined 49% net sales growth. Saratoga was named the official water of the Golden Globes, and Mountain Valley received endorsements from professional athletes.
Expansion and Distribution Gains
Primo Brands is adding over 5% incremental points of distribution in mass and grocery channels, including new six-count PET versions of Mountain Valley and Saratoga Spring waters in Walmart.
Successful Cost Synergy Capture
Achieved approximately $20 million in synergies during the first quarter as part of a broader $200 million synergy goal for 2025, contributing to EBITDA growth.
Strong Cash and Liquidity Position
Primo Brands reported $1.1 billion in total liquidity, supported by strong cash flow generation and recent divestitures.
Negative Updates
Hawkins Facility Tornado Impact
The Hawkins, Texas facility experienced damage from a tornado, causing supply chain disruptions. The facility is expected to be fully operational by late June, with potential capital expenditures of $50 million.
Minimal Pricing Contribution
Price/mix growth was only 0.2%, indicating a reliance on volume for sales growth amidst a competitive pricing environment.
Dispenser Business Tariff Exposure
The dispenser business remains exposed to tariff changes, representing approximately 1% of annual net sales, requiring potential promotional activity to maintain velocity.
Company Guidance
During Primo Brands Corporation's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating robust performance and strategic initiatives for the full year. The first quarter saw comparable net sales of $1.61 billion, a 3% increase driven by a 2.8% volume rise and a 0.2% price or mix growth. Organic growth contributed 2.6%, while inorganic growth added 0.4%. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12.1% to $342 million, achieving a margin of 21.2%, which was a 170 basis point improvement over the prior year. The company reaffirmed its net sales guidance of 3% to 5% growth for 2025, boosted by new distribution and reset implementations. Cost synergy opportunities are expected to reach $200 million in 2025 and $300 million by 2026. Strategic focuses include brand leadership, net organic growth, superior customer service, and operational excellence, leveraging synergies and optimizing costs as the company integrates following a merger.

Primo Brands Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Primo Brands Completes Stock Repurchase Agreement
Positive
May 12, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Primo Brands Corporation entered into a stock purchase agreement to repurchase 3,157,562 shares of its Class A common stock from affiliates of One Rock Capital Partners. The repurchase closed on May 12, 2025, concurrently with a secondary offering by the same affiliates, who sold 47,500,000 shares, garnering approximately $1.5 billion in proceeds. This strategic move, involving no direct sale of shares by Primo Brands, signifies a consolidation of its stock and potentially strengthens its market position by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRMB) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Primo Brands stock, see the PRMB Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on PRMB Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, PRMB is a Outperform.

Primo Brands’ strong revenue growth, efficient cash flow management, and positive earnings call outlook are significant strengths. However, profitability challenges, increased financial leverage, and valuation concerns weigh on the overall score, leading to a moderate outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on PRMB stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Primo Brands Board Member Joseph Rosenberg Resigns
Neutral
Mar 21, 2025

On March 18, 2025, Joseph Rosenberg resigned from Primo Brands Corporation’s Board of Directors following a decrease in ownership of the company’s Class A common stock by ORCP Stockholders. His resignation, effective March 20, 2025, was not due to any disagreements with the company. Following his departure, the Board reduced its size to thirteen directors as requested by the Initial ORCP Stockholder.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Primo Brands Announces Secondary Stock Offering Pricing
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Primo Brands Corporation announced the pricing of a secondary offering of 51,750,000 shares of its Class A common stock, including an option for underwriters to purchase additional shares, at $29.50 per share. The offering, which closed on March 12, 2025, was conducted by a stockholder affiliated with One Rock Capital Partners, with Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities leading the underwriting. The company agreed to repurchase 4,000,000 shares from the underwriters, funded by cash on hand, while the selling stockholder received all net proceeds. This move is part of the company’s strategic financial operations, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

Private Placements and FinancingStock Buyback
Primo Brands Announces Secondary Stock Offering
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Primo Brands Corporation announced a secondary offering of 45,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock by a stockholder affiliated with One Rock Capital Partners. The company plans to repurchase 4,000,000 shares from the underwriters using cash on hand, with the offering subject to market conditions. This move could potentially impact the company’s stock price and market positioning.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Primo Brands Completes Strategic Debt Restructuring
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Primo Brands Corporation announced the completion of the final settlement of exchange offers for its subsidiaries’ senior notes. This settlement involved exchanging existing notes for new secured and unsecured notes, along with cash considerations. The move is part of a strategic financial restructuring to manage debt obligations, impacting the company’s financial stability and positioning in the market. The cancellation of a significant portion of existing notes and issuance of new ones reflects a substantial shift in the company’s debt structure, potentially affecting stakeholders and future financial strategies.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Primo Brands Concludes Senior Notes Exchange Offers
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025

On February 25, 2025, Primo Brands Corporation announced the expiration of its private offers to exchange three series of outstanding senior notes for new notes and cash, which began on January 27, 2025. The final settlement for late tender notes is expected on February 28, 2025. This move is part of Primo Brands’ strategic financial management, aiming to optimize its debt structure and maintain competitive positioning in the market. The exchange offers were conducted under an exemption from registration requirements, reflecting the company’s proactive approach to managing its financial obligations and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.