Want to see PFS full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Provident Financial Services
(NYSE:PFS)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(13.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
PFS scores well primarily on improving profitability/cash conversion and constructive price trend, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). The score is tempered by higher and rising leverage, recent revenue softness, and earnings-call risk items around credit (nonperforming loan uptick), margin outlook tightening, and near-term expense pressure.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
Profitability has meaningfully rebounded with TTM net margin and EBIT margin well above recent troughs and ROE near 11%. This sustained improvement increases internal capital generation, supports dividends/buybacks, and provides operating cushion against cyclical credit or funding headwinds over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage has increased materially over several years, nearly tripling since 2021. Higher debt reliance reduces capital flexibility, raises funding and interest-rate sensitivity, and limits room to absorb credit stress or pursue opportunistic growth without issuing equity or cutting payouts over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
Profitability has meaningfully rebounded with TTM net margin and EBIT margin well above recent troughs and ROE near 11%. This sustained improvement increases internal capital generation, supports dividends/buybacks, and provides operating cushion against cyclical credit or funding headwinds over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Provident Financial Services (PFS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.26B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth3.72%
EPS Growth35.18%
CountryUS
Employees1,842
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.40
Shares Outstanding130,422,620
10 Day Avg. Volume1,005,189
30 Day Avg. Volume1,078,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.87
P/FCF Ratio5.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.67Price Target Upside24.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$922.76M
Provident Financial Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Services, Inc. functions as the parent company for Provident Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of financial products and services to individuals, families, and businesses across the United States. Its deposit offerings encompas...
How the Company Makes Money
PFS primarily earns revenue through (1) net interest income and (2) non-interest income. Net interest income is generated by lending and investing activities: the bank collects interest and fees on loans (such as commercial loans, commercial real ...
Provident Financial Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid underlying performance: record revenues, strong loan production and pipelines, expanding margins, improved efficiency, and growth in fee businesses. Asset quality metrics were generally healthy and capital/tangible book value improved. Key challenges flagged included a competitive deposit funding environment, one notable nonaccrual senior housing relationship (managed but still impactful), elevated CRE concentration, and near-term conversion costs. Management raised guidance on loan/deposit growth toward the high end of prior ranges and increased fee income guidance, while also emphasizing conservative assumptions around charge-offs and the sensitivity of reported NIM to accretion and recoveries.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and EPS Growth
Net earnings of $78M ($0.60 diluted) in Q2 and core net earnings of $80M ($0.61). Through the first half of 2026, EPS grew 17% versus prior year. Adjusted ROAA was 1.27% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity was ~16% (16.2% stated).
Negative Updates
Competitive Deposit Environment and Cost Pressure
Management described a very competitive market for incremental funding, especially in consumer and municipal segments. Expectation of deposit costs to rise ~1–2 basis points over coming quarters. Promotional CD rates in market discussed around the mid-4% area, and elevated broker pricing influenced funding choices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and EPS Growth
Net earnings of $78M ($0.60 diluted) in Q2 and core net earnings of $80M ($0.61). Through the first half of 2026, EPS grew 17% versus prior year. Adjusted ROAA was 1.27% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity was ~16% (16.2% stated).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised guidance modestly and provided several forward-looking metrics: full‑year loan and deposit growth is expected at the high end of the range, now 5–6%, noninterest income is guided to $29 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4 (up from $28.5M), and the effective tax rate is expected to be ~28–28.25%; they continue to target a core ROA of 1.2–1.3% and mid‑teens return on average tangible common equity, model no further Fed moves and project ~1–2 bps of core NIM expansion in Q3–Q4 with reported NIM ~3.45–3.50% for the remainder of 2026, anticipate deposit costs to rise ~1–2 bps over the next quarters, maintain a loan‑to‑deposit ratio target of 97–103%, kept the charge‑off guide at ~10–15 bps for the year, expect quarterly operating expenses of roughly $117–$119 million plus ~$4.5 million of nonrecurring conversion charges through year‑end, and estimate purchase‑account accretion of roughly $48 million in 2026 and about $36 million in 2027.Provident Financial Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38B | 1.38B | 1.14B | 695.65M | 553.97M | 489.15M |
| Gross Profit | 871.63M | 866.82M | 607.16M | 451.12M | 500.34M | 475.66M |
| EBITDA | 486.33M | 473.67M | 204.20M | 197.97M | 263.81M | 249.85M |
| Net Income | 312.71M | 291.16M | 115.53M | 128.40M | 175.65M | 167.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 25.66B | 24.98B | 24.05B | 14.21B | 13.78B | 13.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.51B | 3.38B | 2.97B | 1.87B | 1.99B | 2.77B |
| Total Debt | 2.82B | 2.52B | 2.42B | 1.53B | 1.35B | 637.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 22.76B | 22.15B | 21.45B | 12.52B | 12.19B | 12.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.91B | 2.83B | 2.60B | 1.69B | 1.60B | 1.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 362.66M | 430.73M | 425.07M | 165.91M | 190.90M | 143.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 370.48M | 442.26M | 426.38M | 173.40M | 200.31M | 156.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -1.05B | 507.67M | -469.60M | -647.56M | -716.57M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 731.13M | 615.62M | -908.37M | 289.95M | -78.70M | 739.86M |
Provident Financial Services Technical Analysis
Positive
23.89
Price Trends
23.57
Positive
22.61
Positive
21.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.34
Positive
58.69
Neutral
39.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.26, above the 50-day MA of 23.57, and above the 200-day MA of 21.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PFS.
Provident Financial Services Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Services disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Services reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Provident Financial Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $4.17B | 13.70 | 11.74% | 0.89% | -0.33% | 30.90% | |
76 Outperform | $2.78B | 13.06 | 11.26% | 2.82% | 14.46% | 46.91% | |
74 Outperform | $3.26B | 10.27 | 11.00% | 4.02% | 3.72% | 35.18% | |
71 Outperform | $822.05M | 15.93 | 7.65% | 0.43% | 10.63% | 59.91% | |
70 Outperform | $2.82B | 9.84 | 13.57% | ― | 11.55% | 103.48% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $1.92B | 23.34 | 2.59% | 4.09% | 10.46% | -39.66% |
* Financial Sector Average
PFS
Provident Financial Services
24.64
6.69
37.25%
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
53.56
12.84
31.53%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
19.77
3.36
20.45%
PGC
Peapack-Gladstone Financial
46.68
20.29
76.89%
WSFS
Wsfs Financial
81.66
27.13
49.76%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
83.58
17.70
26.87%
Provident Financial Services Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Services Enhances Governance and Finance Leadership
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. expanded its governance structure by electing veteran regulator Michael E. Regan to the boards of both the company and Provident Bank as a Class of 2028 director. His appointment, accompanied by...
Dividends
Provident Financial Services Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on August 28, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the cl...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Provident Financial Services Highlights Strong Q2 2026 Performance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Provident Financial Services furnished investor presentation materials alongside its second‑quarter 2026 earnings release, highlighting a notable improvement in profitability and balance sheet metrics. Core diluted EPS reac...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Provident Financial Services Reports Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
Provident Financial Services, Inc. reported on July 29, 2026 that second-quarter 2026 net income rose to $78.1 million, or $0.60 per share, up from $72.0 million, or $0.55 per share, a year earlier, with six-month net income climbing to $157.6 mil...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Services Promotes Duarte to Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
Provident Financial Services reported a leadership transition in its finance organization, underscoring continuity in its long-standing regional banking franchise. On June 18, 2026, long-serving director James P. Dunigan retired from the boards of...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Names Vitelli Chief Wealth Officer, President
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Provident Bank announced that Annamaria Vitelli has been appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Wealth Officer of Provident Bank and President of Beacon Trust, effective immediately. She has also been designated an executive of...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Extends Executive Chairman Agreement to 2028
Neutral
May 26, 2026
Provident Financial Services has amended and restated its Executive Chairman Agreement with Christopher Martin, Executive Chairman of Provident Financial and Provident Bank, extending the term of his agreement to expire on May 21, 2028. Upon the e...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Provident Financial Stockholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held virtually on May 21, 2026, Provident Financial Services reported that 84.78% of eligible shares were represented, and stockholders elected four directors — Brian A. Gragnolati, Edward J. Lepper...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.