Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Oatly Group Ab (OTLY)
:OTLY
Top Page
Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲( 2.24% Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
Guidance for positive FY25 EBITDA is the first major inflection and likely to be followed by FCF turning positive in FY26.
Market Performance
Absolute sales growth remains superior to U.S. packaged food peers, indicating strong market performance.
Operational Efficiency
Analyst views the guidance for FY25 as a net positive, including tighter operational expenses and moderated free cash flow burn.
Negative Factors
Financial Metrics
Return on Equity TTM is significantly negative at -92.07%.
Regional Performance
Europe & International segment sales miss expectations despite an EBITDA beat, suggesting regional challenges.
Revenue
Revenue is lighter and disappointing, but there is high confidence that growth will be achieved.
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$306.76M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)112.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.11
Revenue Growth4.56%
EPS Growth57.03%
CountryUS
Employees1,468
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength72
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.51
Shares Outstanding29,927,992
10 Day Avg. Volume128,747
30 Day Avg. Volume112,831
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.30Price Target Upside39.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOatly Group (OTLY) is a Swedish food company that specializes in the production and distribution of oat-based products. The company is a pioneer in the plant-based dairy alternative sector, with a focus on sustainability and health-conscious offerings. Oatly's core products include oat milk, yogurt, ice cream, and other oat-derived food and beverage items, catering to consumers seeking lactose-free, vegan, and environmentally friendly alternatives.
How the Company Makes MoneyOatly Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its oat-based products to various customer segments, including retailers, foodservice providers, and direct consumers. The company's key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to grocery stores and supermarkets, partnerships with cafes and restaurants for on-premise consumption, and online sales through e-commerce platforms. Oatly's revenue is driven by the growing demand for plant-based foods as consumers increasingly seek sustainable and health-conscious options. The company also leverages strategic partnerships and collaborations with influential brands and retailers to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility, which further contributes to its earnings.
Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Oatly Group shows steady revenue growth and improving gross margins, yet struggles with profitability as indicated by negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net margins. High leverage and negative cash flows highlight financial instability.Income Statement
Oatly Group has experienced modest revenue growth over the years, with a recent decline in TTM figures. Gross profit margins have improved, but the company continues to face significant net losses, reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, signaling substantial leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved recently, suggesting better asset management. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Oatly's cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, exacerbating concerns about cash management. Although the free cash flow has shown some improvement recently, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 822.04M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M | 421.35M | Gross Profit |
| 244.92M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M | 129.24M | EBIT |
| -176.33M | -186.15M | -457.01M | -395.99M | -213.74M | -47.09M | EBITDA |
| -28.24M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -355.03M | -172.15M | -34.33M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -168.58M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M | -60.36M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 74.43M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M | 105.36M | Total Assets |
| 793.02M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B | 678.93M | Total Debt |
| 475.93M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M | 233.45M | Net Debt |
| 401.50M | 392.53M | 283.54M | 69.05M | -146.37M | 128.09M | Total Liabilities |
| 671.14M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M | 352.84M | Stockholders Equity |
| 120.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B | 326.09M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -130.86M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M | -186.04M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -88.91M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M | -44.31M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -23.71M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M | -141.37M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -23.63M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M | 273.91M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Positive
10.27
Price Trends
9.63
Positive
10.46
Negative
13.31
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
55.74
Neutral
73.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.18, above the 50-day MA of 9.63, and below the 200-day MA of 13.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The Company may be subject to securities litigation, which is expensive and could divert management attention. Q4, 2024
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.76B | 13.19 | 23.07% | 3.99% | 13.22% | 11.37% | |
79 Outperform | $2.11B | 36.19 | 24.86% | ― | 8.01% | 11.26% | |
77 Outperform | $4.27B | 22.85 | 40.81% | ― | 0.34% | 9.48% | |
64 Neutral | $8.78B | 14.55 | 4.78% | 173.91% | 3.39% | 2.17% | |
54 Neutral | $218.95M | ― | -28.87% | ― | -6.83% | 19.09% | |
52 Neutral | $306.76M | ― | -85.68% | ― | 4.56% | 57.03% | |
39 Underperform | $38.69M | ― | -117.82% | ― | 22.04% | -21.72% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OTLY
Oatly Group
10.25
-11.85
-53.62%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
20.84
7.51
56.34%
FIZZ
National Beverage
44.36
1.94
4.57%
BRFH
Barfresh Food Group
2.32
0.79
51.63%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
2.83
1.89
201.06%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
36.28
9.94
37.74%
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -0.10%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected significant improvements in cost efficiencies and gross margin expansion, as well as strong volume growth in key regions like Greater China. However, the top-line revenue growth was modest, and the company faced challenges in North America, impacting overall performance. While there are positive signs of progress, particularly in profitability and operational efficiency, the mixed revenue performance and regional challenges create a balanced outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA
Gross margin expanded by 450 basis points year-over-year to 31.6%, and adjusted EBITDA improved by $9.5 million compared to last year's first quarter, marking the best quarterly results as a public company.
Strong Volume Growth
Volume grew a solid 9.2% in the quarter, with notable strength in the Greater China segment and solid growth in Europe and International markets.
Cost Efficiency Gains
Significant cost reductions achieved, reducing cost of goods sold per liter by 15% year-on-year. Total cost of goods was reduced by $10 million.
Progress in Greater China
The Greater China segment showed strong performance, particularly in the foodservice channel, and the retail channel is starting to gain traction.
Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow was positive at $21 million, the best quarterly performance as a public company and a $25 million improvement compared to last year's first quarter.
Negative Updates
Mixed Top-Line Performance
Constant-currency revenue growth was only 0.7% in the quarter, with headwinds in North America due to issues with the largest customer and SKU rationalization.
Challenges in North America
Continued challenges in North America with discrete headwinds impacting sales, including a change in sourcing strategy at the largest customer and SKU rationalization.
Price Mix Decline
Price mix declined by 8.5%, offsetting some of the volume growth achieved in the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Oatly First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management reinforced their guidance for the year, emphasizing their commitment to structural, consistent, profitable growth. They reported a strong first quarter with gross profit, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow all reaching their highest levels since the IPO. The quarter saw a 9.2% increase in volume, with particularly strong growth in Greater China, but constant-currency revenue growth was modest at 0.7%. Despite facing challenges in North America, the company remains optimistic about accelerating growth later in the year. Oatly continues to pursue cost efficiencies, reducing cost of goods sold per liter by 15% year-on-year, which contributed to a 450 basis point improvement in gross margin to 31.6%. Their full year guidance, projecting constant-currency growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA between $5 million to $15 million, remains unchanged.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.