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O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) AI Stock Analysis
O'Reilly Auto
(NASDAQ:ORLY)
ORLY scores well primarily on strong profitability, steady growth, and reliable free cash flow, reinforced by a notably positive earnings call with raised guidance. The overall score is tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and rising debt), a valuation that leaves less margin for error (P/E ~27.6), and only moderately favorable technicals with the stock still just below its 200-day moving average.
O'Reilly Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by SegmentBreaks down sales across product and service lines (for example parts, accessories, commercial accounts, and online), revealing which areas drive revenue and where growth or margin opportunities exist.
Professional customers are now the primary growth driver—professional revenue has accelerated faster than DIY and recently overtaken DIY sales, reflecting sustained double‑digit pro comps and higher tickets. That mix shift boosts reported comps today but has contributed to margin pressure, and management’s call that same‑SKU inflation will moderate in H2 suggests headline revenue growth could slow even if pro demand stays healthy. Watch gross‑margin trajectory and comp guidance for evidence the pro pivot sustains profitability.
The FlyO'Reilly Auto (ORLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $71.29B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 5.61M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 26.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.20
- Revenue Growth
- 8.73%
- EPS Growth
- 12.85%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 93,072
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehensiv...
How the Company Makes Money
O’Reilly makes money primarily by selling automotive aftermarket products to two main customer groups: (1) DIY retail customers who purchase parts and supplies for self-repair and maintenance, and (2) professional customers (repair shops and other in...
O'Reilly Auto Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive. O'Reilly reported broad-based comparable store sales growth, double-digit EPS growth, improved cash flow, raised sales, margin, operating profit, and free cash flow guidance, and accelerated its new-store expansion plans. The company also expressed confidence in continued share gains and resilient maintenance demand. Offsetting concerns included DIY transaction pressure, petroleum-category margin pressure, elevated SG&A and fuel costs, higher leverage, and expected moderation in the inflation benefit, but these issues were presented alongside strong execution and generally favorable outlook commentary.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, O’Reilly raised comparable store sales guidance to a range of 5.5% to 6.5%, total revenues to between $19 billion and $19.3 billion, diluted EPS to the range of $3.25 to $3.35, gross margin to a range of 51.6% to 52.1%, operating profit to a range of 19.5% to 20%, SG&A per store growth to a range between 4.5% to 5%, effective tax rate to 22.7 percent, and free cash flow to a range of $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion; the company expects fourth-quarter inflation of 2.5, 3%, average inventory per store growth of 5 percent, inventory turns of 1.6x, capital expenditures of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, 225 to 235 net new store openings, and an adjusted debt to EBITDA optimal leverage target of 2.5x, while its 2027 new store target is 265 to 275 net new stores.
O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong operating fundamentals supported by consistent profitability (gross margin ~51–52%, net margin ~14–16%), steady revenue growth, and solid free cash flow (TTM FCF ~$2.1B). The score is held back by balance-sheet risk: negative equity across periods and rising total debt (to ~$10.3B TTM), plus some recent softness in operating profitability (TTM EBIT margin ~14% vs ~19–22% previously) and modest cash-flow coverage versus debt service.
Income Statement
82Very PositiveBalance Sheet
28NegativeCash Flow
71Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.99B | 17.78B | 16.71B | 15.81B | 14.41B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 9.83B | 9.17B | 8.55B | 8.10B | 7.38B | 7.02B |
| EBITDA | 4.17B | 3.99B | 3.71B | 3.62B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Net Income | 2.71B | 2.54B | 2.39B | 2.35B | 2.17B | 2.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.60B | 16.54B | 14.89B | 13.87B | 12.63B | 11.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 194.44M | 193.79M | 130.25M | 279.13M | 108.58M | 362.11M |
| Total Debt | 10.30B | 8.49B | 7.92B | 7.84B | 6.55B | 5.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.69B | 17.30B | 16.26B | 15.61B | 13.69B | 11.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.09B | -763.35M | -1.37B | -1.74B | -1.06B | -66.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.10B | 1.59B | 2.03B | 2.03B | 2.58B | 2.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.23B | 2.76B | 3.05B | 3.03B | 3.15B | 3.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -1.15B | -1.17B | -995.94M | -739.99M | -615.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -1.55B | -2.03B | -1.87B | -2.66B | -2.69B |
O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 88.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.05, above the 50-day MA of 87.20, and below the 200-day MA of 90.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ORLY.
O'Reilly Auto Risk Analysis
O'Reilly Auto disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. O'Reilly Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksO'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
AMZN74Outperform- ORLY73Outperform
EBAY71Outperform
AZO60Neutral
AAP47Neutral
PRTS45Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 74Outperform | $2.59T | 19.17 | 26.71% | ― | 15.35% | 73.92% |
| ORLY | 73Outperform | $71.29B | 26.86 | -188.24% | ― | 8.73% | 12.85% |
| EBAY | 71Outperform | $53.40B | 26.05 | 46.11% | 1.00% | 15.33% | -0.34% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| AZO | 60Neutral | $51.02B | 20.30 | -90.08% | ― | 7.39% | 5.02% |
| AAP | 47Neutral | $2.72B | 32.38 | 3.79% | 2.22% | -1.30% | ― |
| PRTS | 45Neutral | $55.65M | -2.29 | -37.30% | ― | -7.72% | 69.15% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive | 88.12 | -3.58 | -3.90% | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts Inc | 45.11 | -1.32 | -2.85% | |
| AMZN | Amazon.Com, Inc. | 240.35 | -13.65 | -5.37% | |
| AZO | AutoZone Inc | 3169.82 | -406.32 | -11.36% | |
| EBAY | Ebay Inc | 121.64 | 39.91 | 48.84% | |
| PRTS | CarParts.com Inc | 6.90 | 0.28 | 4.25% |
O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events
O’Reilly Auto Announces Q3 2026 Earnings Schedule
NeutralOn October 1, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced the schedule for its third-quarter 2026 earnings release and related conference call, underscoring the company’s ongoing focus on transparency and regular communication with investor...
O’Reilly Auto Completes $1.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
PositiveOn August 14, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. completed an offering of $1.6 billion in unsecured senior notes, issuing $700 million of 4.800% notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.050% notes due 2031, and $400 million of 5.550% notes due 2037 under...
O’Reilly Auto Announces Senior Notes Offering for Growth
PositiveOn August 10, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities, Truist Securities, and Wells Fargo Securities for the issuance of $700 million of 4.800% senior notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.050% s...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026