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Onity Group Inc. (ONIT)
:ONIT
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Onity Group (ONIT) AI Stock Analysis

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ONIT

Onity Group

(NYSE:ONIT)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(3.40% Upside)
Onity Group's overall stock score reflects significant strengths in recent earnings performance and valuation, counterbalanced by financial challenges and mixed technical indicators. The strong earnings call performance is a key positive, but high leverage and cash flow issues pose risks.

Onity Group (ONIT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Onity Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOnity Group (ONIT) is a leading provider of electronic locking solutions and security technologies primarily serving the hospitality, education, and commercial sectors. The company specializes in advanced locking systems, mobile access solutions, and integrated security management systems, enabling properties to enhance their operational efficiency and guest experience. With a focus on innovation and customer satisfaction, Onity offers a comprehensive range of products including electronic locks, keyless entry systems, and mobile access applications.
How the Company Makes MoneyOnity generates revenue through the sale of its electronic locking solutions and security products, which are typically sold directly to hotels, educational institutions, and commercial enterprises. Key revenue streams include hardware sales from electronic locks and access control devices, software licensing for security management systems, and ongoing maintenance and support services. Additionally, Onity benefits from partnerships with hospitality management companies and technology integrators, which help expand its market reach and customer base. The company's focus on innovation, such as the development of mobile access solutions, also plays a significant role in driving revenue growth by meeting evolving customer demands for convenience and security.

Onity Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in originations and financial metrics, with significant technological advancements and subservicing growth. However, challenges include the nonrenewal of a key subservicing portfolio and higher runoff in servicing, which slightly tempered the overall positive sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Origination Volume
The originations team delivered volume growth of 39% year-over-year and 26% versus the prior quarter, outperforming the industry and public peers.
Strong Financial Metrics
Adjusted pretax income was $31 million with an annualized adjusted return on equity of 25%, exceeding both quarterly and year-to-date guidance.
Book Value Growth
Book value increased to $62 per share, up 5% versus the prior year.
Servicing Portfolio Growth
Ending total servicing in the third quarter was up $17 billion or 6% year-over-year.
Improved Recapture Performance
Recapture volume was 1.8x the prior year level, with a refinance recapture rate of 85% for loans originated by the consumer direct channel.
Technological Advancements
Investments in AI and technology improved business performance, customer experience, and enabled a highly competitive platform.
Subservicing Growth
Signed 9 new clients this year, with subservicing additions expected to continue growing into 2026.
Negative Updates
Nonrenewal of Rithm Subservicing
Received notice of nonrenewal for Rithm subservicing, expected to transfer in 2026. The portfolio accounts for over half of delinquent loans and borrower litigation, with declining profitability.
Higher Runoff in Servicing
Servicing revenue lift was offset by higher runoff in the third quarter due to increased prepay speeds and a greater amount of owned MSRs.
Lower than Expected UPB Growth
Full-year UPB growth is now estimated between 5% and 10%, down from the prior guidance of 10-plus percent.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Onity Group demonstrated strong financial performance, achieving an adjusted pretax income of $31 million and an annualized adjusted return on equity (ROE) of 25%, surpassing their guidance. The company reported a GAAP net income and earnings per share of $2.03, including a $4 million tax provision expense. Record origination volume and steady servicing profitability contributed to these results, with book value increasing to $62 per share, a 5% rise from the previous year. Significant growth was noted in their servicing portfolio, with a $17 billion year-over-year increase, supported by double-digit originations growth. Additionally, the originations team delivered a volume growth of 39% year-over-year, significantly outperforming industry averages. Onity Group is focused on leveraging their balanced business model, robust technology investments, and strategic asset management to maintain agility and create long-term value for shareholders.

Onity Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Onity Group's financial statements reflect challenges in profitability, leverage, and cash flow management. High debt levels and inconsistent profitability pose risks, despite some operational efficiencies.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Onity Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the net profit margin is weak due to inconsistent net income, with a recent return to profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in the latest year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating operational efficiency but also highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is low, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is weak, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial risk due to high debt levels.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow growth, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting operational cash challenges. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, suggesting difficulties in generating cash from operations. Overall, cash flow management appears strained.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.09B1.07B1.14B999.50M1.08B976.80M
Gross Profit569.10M495.60M584.50M459.20M521.00M524.80M
EBITDA237.40M256.10M238.80M285.50M235.80M175.50M
Net Income33.20M33.90M-63.70M25.70M18.10M-40.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.11B16.44B12.51B12.40B12.15B10.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments172.80M184.80M213.10M274.20M263.45M357.26M
Total Debt0.0014.74B10.93B10.46B10.47B9.29B
Total Liabilities15.56B15.94B12.11B11.94B11.67B10.24B
Stockholders Equity551.30M492.90M401.80M456.70M476.70M415.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-853.50M-807.00M-111.80M-31.70M-1.30B-16.30M
Operating Cash Flow-735.40M-573.80M10.40M173.20M-468.40M261.00M
Investing Cash Flow1.51B401.30M-100.30M-120.80M-1.01B-527.90M
Financing Cash Flow-788.40M182.90M70.80M-13.40M1.38B131.80M

Onity Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price39.65
Price Trends
50DMA
39.82
Negative
100DMA
39.25
Negative
200DMA
36.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
49.56
Neutral
STOCH
55.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONIT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 39.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.84, below the 50-day MA of 39.82, and above the 200-day MA of 36.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ONIT.

Onity Group Risk Analysis

Onity Group disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Onity Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Onity Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$205.99M9.066.65%5.49%4.30%
68
Neutral
$723.03M8.5816.05%41.99%27.50%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
$74.31M17.313.36%-30.69%
56
Neutral
$319.39M9.816.71%-9.86%112.66%
56
Neutral
$173.33M38.851.99%18.98%-12.56%-69.72%
54
Neutral
$34.36M
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONIT
Onity Group
38.35
7.14
22.88%
GHI
Greystone Housing Impact Investors
7.06
-3.56
-33.52%
SNFCA
Security National Financial
7.97
-1.70
-17.58%
CNF
CNFinance Holdings
4.90
-7.80
-61.42%
IOR
Income Opportunity Realty Investors
18.38
1.63
9.70%
VEL
Velocity Financial
18.91
-0.91
-4.59%

Onity Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Onity Group Faces Client Non-Renewal, Plans Restructuring
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Onity Group Inc. announced that Rithm Capital Corp., one of its largest subservicing clients, will not renew its subservicing agreements, effective January 31, 2026. These agreements accounted for a significant portion of Onity’s servicing portfolio, including a large share of delinquent loans. Despite the expected restructuring obligation, Onity does not foresee a material financial impact for 2026, as it plans to replace the earnings with more profitable consumer and commercial relationships. In its third-quarter 2025 results, Onity reported a net income of $18 million and a 39% year-over-year increase in originations volume, highlighting strong performance and growth in its servicing and originations business.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONIT) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Onity Group stock, see the ONIT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Onity Group Appoints Robert Welborn as New Director
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Onity Group Inc. announced the appointment of Robert S. Welborn as a director, effective October 1, 2025. The Board temporarily increased its size to eight directors to accommodate Mr. Welborn, who is recognized as an independent director under NYSE and SEC standards. Mr. Welborn, a marketing technology consultant, brings extensive experience from his previous roles at Meta Inc., General Motors, and USAA. He will serve on the Company’s Risk and Compliance Committee. Additionally, DeForest B. Soaries, Jr. will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual shareholder meeting, and the Board will reduce its size to seven directors at that time. Onity expressed gratitude for Dr. Soaries’ 11 years of service, noting his departure is not due to any disagreements with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONIT) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Onity Group stock, see the ONIT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025