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Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited
(CHI)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(16.96% Upside)
Action:N/A
Date:10/05/26
Overall score reflects improved financial quality and cash generation plus a positive earnings-call backdrop (upgraded guidance, dividend growth, and expanding contracted revenue). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages. The main offset is valuation risk from the very high P/E, alongside ongoing cyclicality and execution/financing watch points noted in the call.
Positive Factors
Long-term contracted storage growth
Long-duration contracts increase revenue visibility and reduce reliance on spot fuel-market activity. The bp agreement and expanded contracted capacity should support recurring infrastructure income, improve utilization of Marsden Point assets, and strengthen the company’s market position over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Rising operating cost base
Higher operating costs can limit the durability of margin expansion even while revenue grows. Inflation across utilities, materials and labour, together with additional staffing, creates a larger recurring cost base that must be absorbed through utilization gains, pricing, or operating efficiencies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Long-term contracted storage growth
Long-duration contracts increase revenue visibility and reduce reliance on spot fuel-market activity. The bp agreement and expanded contracted capacity should support recurring infrastructure income, improve utilization of Marsden Point assets, and strengthen the company’s market position over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (CHI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.49B
Dividend Yield3.94%
Average Volume (3M)512.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)81.3
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth1.94%
EPS Growth104.61%
CountryNZ
Employees105
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding416,116,000
10 Day Avg. Volume406,270
30 Day Avg. Volume512,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.76
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)8.55
P/FCF Ratio49.45
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$154.44M
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (CHI.NZ) oversees the vital infrastructure network that underpins the supply and distribution of fuel and energy products across New Zealand. Its extensive holdings include the fuels import terminal system at Mars...
How the Company Makes Money
CHI primarily makes money by charging customers for the use of its fuel import terminal and storage infrastructure at Marsden Point. Key revenue streams include: (1) storage fees for leasing tank capacity to fuel companies; (2) throughput/handling...
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial narrative: revenue, EBITDA and dividends grew, guidance was upgraded, significant project delivery milestones were achieved (fast-turn government diesel storage delivery, ahead-of-schedule Z Energy project) and contracted revenue expanded materially (including a $130M BP contract and a 40% rise in in-service storage). Key negatives include rising operating costs, two recordable injuries, short-term jet volume weakness due to geopolitical factors, a longer-than-expected equity raise timeline for the proposed biorefinery (potential FID delay into 2027), and a retail bond refinancing to manage. Overall, achievements and upgrades materially outweigh the challenges, though execution and financing milestones (biorefinery equity raise and bond refinancing) remain watch points.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Half-year revenue of $72.9M, up 4% on HY'25 (underlying revenue up 5% excluding the legacy Wiri lease).
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Costs
Operating costs increased 11% to $24.1M (underlying ~6% excluding Somerton JV), driven by inflationary pressure on energy/utilities, materials and labour as vacancies were filled to support operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Half-year revenue of $72.9M, up 4% on HY'25 (underlying revenue up 5% excluding the legacy Wiri lease).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Channel upgraded FY26 EBITDA guidance to $103–108 million (from the May range of $97–105m), while maintaining maintenance CapEx guidance of 8–10% of revenue and leaving normalized free cash flow conversion guidance unchanged; HY normalized FCF was $33.6m (EBITDA-to-FCF conversion 69%), EBITDA for the half was $48.8m and revenue $72.9m. The Board declared an interim dividend of $0.0725 per share (up 16%), consistent with a stated dividend policy of 70–90% of normalized FCF, and the company plans to invest an additional $700k–$900k p.a. in operating expenditure to support growth. HY CapEx was $41.5m (vs $19.1m in FY25) with growth CapEx on projects including Z Energy, government diesel storage and Higgins; the BP deal adds ~$130m of contracted revenue over 15 years (pre‑PPI) and in‑service contracted storage at Marsden Point increased ~40% (adding 123 million litres in three months). The balance sheet remains strong with net debt $346m, $93m liquidity headroom, 3.8x net debt/EBITDA leverage and 5.7x interest cover, and 2027 is expected to benefit from full‑year contributions from Z Energy, Higgins and the government diesel contract.Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 142.90M | 140.19M | 139.82M | 130.70M | 88.24M | 215.43M |
| Gross Profit | 62.55M | 63.05M | 130.92M | 64.14M | 84.31M | 125.11M |
| EBITDA | 93.76M | 93.37M | 95.04M | 87.45M | 57.63M | -670.35M |
| Net Income | 18.35M | 11.79M | 13.89M | 24.06M | 11.96M | -552.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.35B | 973.46M | 946.93M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.73M | 2.90M | 5.77M | 4.87M | 2.39M | 16.07M |
| Total Debt | 352.43M | 336.26M | 300.67M | 321.26M | 260.20M | 202.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 591.97M | 571.95M | 529.88M | 474.24M | 428.44M | 662.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 775.04M | 779.61M | 818.26M | 499.21M | 518.49M | 495.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.76M | 24.23M | 12.27M | -26.34M | -70.86M | 3.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 78.72M | 74.35M | 64.89M | 36.72M | -14.13M | 34.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -84.91M | -59.43M | -49.08M | -50.72M | -56.73M | -31.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.37M | -13.30M | -19.39M | 16.48M | 57.18M | -30.41M |
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
3.42
Price Trends
3.38
Positive
3.26
Positive
3.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
59.49
Neutral
60.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:CHI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.50, above the 50-day MA of 3.38, and above the 200-day MA of 3.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:CHI.
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.