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Nabtesco
(6268)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥4,306.00
▼(-6.37% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/01/26
The score is supported primarily by improving TTM profitability and a conservatively levered balance sheet. It is held back by weak technical positioning (trading below the 20/50/100-day moving averages) and a relatively high P/E with only modest dividend yield, which reduces valuation support.
Positive Factors
Earnings and Margin Recovery
The TTM earnings rebound and broader margin expansion indicate improved operating execution, pricing, mix, or cost control. If sustained, stronger profitability can support internal investment, improve resilience across industrial cycles, and provide a more durable earnings base.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Revenue Growth
The recent rebound is encouraging, but revenue declines in the preceding years show that demand remains uneven. Exposure to robotics, factory automation, construction, and industrial equipment cycles can make sustained growth less predictable and complicate long-range planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Earnings and Margin Recovery
The TTM earnings rebound and broader margin expansion indicate improved operating execution, pricing, mix, or cost control. If sustained, stronger profitability can support internal investment, improve resilience across industrial cycles, and provide a more durable earnings base.
Read all positive factors
Nabtesco (6268) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥518.00B
Dividend Yield1.83%
Average Volume (3M)832.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.0
Beta (1Y)1.62
Revenue Growth-7.97%
EPS Growth65.72%
CountryJP
Employees8,472
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)167.47
Shares Outstanding118,064,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,049,060
30 Day Avg. Volume832,256
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio22.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥5,842.50Price Target Upside27.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)208.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥344.68B
Nabtesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally from its base in Japan, Nabtesco Corporation specializes in the development and sale of equipment across industrial, consumer, and environmental sectors. Its operations are divided into Component Solutions, Transport Solutions, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Nabtesco makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling industrial components and systems that control motion and power transmission in customer equipment. Key revenue streams include: (1) Precision reduction gears and related components suppl...
Nabtesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2024
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. While there were strong performances in certain segments like Aircraft Equipment and steady forecasts for profit, challenges in Component Solutions and the Chinese market weighed heavily. The company's proactive cost-cutting measures and growth initiatives balance the negative impacts.Positive Updates
Steady Performance in Transport and Accessibility Solutions
The Transport Solutions and Accessibility Solutions segments performed well, offsetting declines in other areas. Accessibility Solutions saw growth and is expected to exceed JPY 100 billion in full-year sales.
Negative Updates
Decline in Component Solutions Sales
Sales in the Component Solutions segment, particularly precision reduction gears, declined due to sluggish robotic demand, leading to an overall sales decrease of 6.4% from the previous year's first half.
Read all updates
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Steady Performance in Transport and Accessibility Solutions
The Transport Solutions and Accessibility Solutions segments performed well, offsetting declines in other areas. Accessibility Solutions saw growth and is expected to exceed JPY 100 billion in full-year sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for Nabtesco Corporation (6268.T), Atsushi Habe provided detailed guidance on the company's financial performance and future outlook. The company reported first-half sales of JPY 152.5 billion, a 6.4% decline year-on-year, although it exceeded the April forecast by JPY 1 billion. The operating profit for the period was JPY 6.4 billion, down 26% from the previous year but JPY 1.4 billion above projections. These declines were primarily attributed to the Component Solutions segment, which suffered due to weak robotic demand, while the Transport and Accessibility Solutions segments showed robust performance. The full-year sales forecast remains at JPY 323.7 billion, with operating profit expected to reach JPY 13.5 billion, supported by cost-cutting measures. The company anticipates a recovery in precision reduction gear demand by the first half of 2025 and foresees growth opportunities in aircraft and marine vessel equipment. The company also discussed its strategy for achieving an operating profit margin of 10% by FY 2026 through Project 10, targeting a 0.4-point improvement in profitability for FY 2024.Nabtesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 309.70B | 307.91B | 323.38B | 333.63B | 308.69B | 299.80B |
| Gross Profit | 100.22B | 93.78B | 87.13B | 82.66B | 76.68B | 82.04B |
| EBITDA | 46.14B | 40.02B | 32.95B | 42.19B | 36.07B | 172.36B |
| Net Income | 21.60B | 15.70B | 10.12B | 14.55B | 9.46B | 64.82B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 455.90B | 463.99B | 445.54B | 422.06B | 459.29B | 481.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 99.58B | 73.34B | 74.48B | 77.83B | 124.41B | 112.77B |
| Total Debt | 57.69B | 59.80B | 45.84B | 32.43B | 31.35B | 27.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 159.55B | 175.16B | 158.27B | 146.17B | 196.06B | 226.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 284.48B | 271.93B | 270.09B | 260.47B | 248.70B | 239.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 25.95B | 19.62B | 1.75B | -11.40B | -1.09B | 28.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 34.53B | 32.82B | 26.65B | 11.18B | 7.72B | 36.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.00B | -15.72B | -28.73B | -46.30B | 13.23B | 67.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.53B | -13.56B | -4.14B | -13.48B | -13.46B | -58.01B |
Nabtesco Technical Analysis
Neutral
4599.00
Price Trends
4600.38
Negative
4826.22
Negative
4709.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-126.61
Positive
45.55
Neutral
54.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6268, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4599 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4615.20, below the 50-day MA of 4600.38, and below the 200-day MA of 4709.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -126.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6268.
Nabtesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | ¥677.32B | 16.72 | 5.80% | 2.68% | 7.75% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | ¥518.00B | 26.02 | 7.86% | 1.87% | -7.97% | 65.72% | |
58 Neutral | ¥666.75B | 16.46 | -14.41% | 3.29% | ― | ― | |
57 Neutral | ¥319.66B | 18.71 | ― | 2.03% | 11.01% | 29.70% | |
57 Neutral | ¥290.96B | 19.02 | ― | 5.32% | 5.19% | 13.96% | |
48 Neutral | ¥532.33B | 175.69 | 3.70% | 0.36% | 11.76% | -21.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Nabtesco Corporate Events
Nabtesco Advances Multi-Billion Yen Share Buyback Program
Oct 1, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation has continued executing its share repurchase program, acquiring 771,600 common shares for approximately JPY 3.43 billion between September 1 and September 30, 2026, through open-market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Th...
Nabtesco Revises Q2 FY2026 Results and Lifts Full‑Year Earnings Outlook
Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco has issued a correction to previously disclosed consolidated financial statements for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including revised numerical data and a fully updated set of interim results under IFRS. The company’s firstR...
Nabtesco Corrects FY2025 Results While Maintaining Dividend and Projecting Growth
Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco has issued a partial correction to its previously disclosed consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, under IFRS. The company has re-released the entire set of 2025 consolidated financial results with ...
Nabtesco Restates Multi-Year Results After Revising Affiliate Accounting
Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation has filed amended annual, semi-annual, and quarterly securities reports with Japan’s Kanto Local Finance Bureau, alongside revisions to previously released consolidated financial results. The restatements stem from a rea...
Nabtesco Corrects Q1 Results and Lifts 2026 Earnings Outlook
Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco has issued a correction to its previously released consolidated financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, including amended numerical data and updated XBRL submissions. The company reported a notable year-on-year rise in net...
Nabtesco Reveals Internal Control Weaknesses and Restates Equity-Method Accounting
Sep 30, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation has disclosed material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting related to the accounting of certain equity-method affiliates. For several years, the company calculated equity-method figures based on changes...
Nabtesco Advances Share Buyback, Acquires Over 1 Million Shares
Sep 1, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation has reported progress on its share buyback program, acquiring 1,089,500 of its own common shares between August 3 and August 31, 2026, at a total cost of about JPY 5.14 billion. This repurchase forms part of a broader board-ap...
Nabtesco to Restate Five Years of Results After Equity‑Method Profit Misstatement
Aug 14, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation has disclosed that it will correct previously reported consolidated financial results after identifying that profits from its 33%‑owned affiliate TMT Machinery, Inc. were understated due to equity‑method accounting...
Nabtesco Launches ¥15 Billion Share Buyback and Cancellation to Lift Capital Efficiency
Jul 31, 2026
Nabtesco’s board has approved a share buyback and subsequent cancellation of the repurchased shares to enhance shareholder value per share and improve capital efficiency. The company plans to acquire up to 4 million common shares, representi...
Nabtesco lifts profit outlook as restructuring boosts margins
Jul 31, 2026
Nabtesco reported strong results for the first half of fiscal 2026, with net sales rising 16.8% year-on-year to ¥167.4 billion and operating income surging 72.4% to ¥15.8 billion, driven by growth in continuing operations following the c...
Nabtesco Lifts FY2026 Earnings Forecast After Strong First-Half Beat
Jul 31, 2026
Nabtesco Corporation reported that its first-half fiscal 2026 consolidated and non-consolidated results significantly exceeded earlier forecasts, driven by robust demand for automatic and platform doors in Japan and overseas, strong sales of preci...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.