Natera (NTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 51.50%
• EPS Growth: 53.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,424
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 136,546,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,276,120
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,180,385
• PEG Ratio: -1.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.40
• 1Y Price Target: $206.40
• Price Target Upside: 22.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $191.00 ▲(13.58%Upside)

Natera's strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow management, combined with positive earnings call highlights, contribute significantly to the stock's score. However, the high valuation risk due to a negative P/E ratio and the stock's near-overbought status as per technical indicators slightly temper the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Market Growth

NTRA remains a growth story with its leading MRD franchise serving an underpenetrated $20B market and a strong base with leadership positions in NIPT and carrier screening.

Medicare Coverage

MolDX granted Medicare coverage of its WGS Signatera assay, following completion of a bridging study.

Revenue Guidance

The company increased its 2025 revenue guidance to between $1.94 billion and $2.02 billion, reflecting about 26% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

Negative Factors

Benchmark Data

WGS Signatera poster lacks landmark CRC data, which is considered an important benchmark.

Operating Expenses

There was a modest increase in operating expenses to drive future growth, which was higher than initial forecasts.

Profitability Impact

Operating leverage was deferred, which may impact short-term profitability despite the positive outlook.

Natera Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is a global leader in cell-free DNA testing, dedicated to improving patient care and reducing healthcare costs through genetic testing solutions. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology and medical diagnostics sectors, offering a range of tests that provide critical insights into genetic health. Natera's core products include non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT), organ transplant rejection assessments, and oncology diagnostics, which help in early disease detection and management.

How the Company Makes Money

Natera makes money primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and services. The company generates revenue by providing genetic testing solutions to healthcare professionals, hospitals, and clinics. Its key revenue streams include its flagship Panorama non-invasive prenatal test, which screens for fetal chromosomal abnormalities, the Prospera transplant assessment test for monitoring organ transplant rejection, and the Signatera test for residual disease detection in oncology. Natera also partners with pharmaceutical companies to use its technology in clinical trials and drug development, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company benefits from the growing demand for personalized medicine and the increasing adoption of genetic testing in healthcare.

Natera Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natera demonstrates strong revenue growth and an improving cash flow position, reflecting a robust market presence and effective cash management. However, consistent net losses and negative profit margins highlight challenges in achieving profitability. The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity position and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Natera's revenue trajectory shows robust growth with a significant increase from $391 million in 2020 to $1.83 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. This growth trend is impressive, indicating strong market demand. However, the company has consistently posted negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has improved, suggesting operational efficiencies, but the net profit margin remains negative, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

Natera maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing from $486 million in 2020 to $1.24 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting prudent debt management. Additionally, the company has a strong equity ratio, indicative of financial stability. However, the consistent net losses present a risk to long-term equity growth, despite the currently favorable debt levels.

Cash Flow

The company has shown a positive trend in free cash flow, growing from a deficit to a surplus of $85 million in TTM 2025. Operating cash flow has also turned positive, demonstrating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation is better than accounting earnings, which is a positive sign. However, the history of negative free cash flow ratios could pose potential challenges if not managed carefully.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.83B	1.70B	1.08B	820.22M	625.49M	391.00M
Gross Profit	1.13B	1.02B	492.74M	363.97M	307.07M	187.38M
EBITDA	-170.27M	-148.08M	-383.28M	-520.80M	-451.54M	-205.95M
Net Income	-189.76M	-190.43M	-434.80M	-547.80M	-471.72M	-229.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.73B	1.66B	1.44B	1.39B	1.24B	932.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	991.60M	968.28M	878.98M	898.39M	914.28M	737.27M
Total Debt	195.60M	187.12M	441.99M	446.22M	397.23M	281.09M
Total Liabilities	492.69M	465.31M	676.37M	688.73M	583.18M	445.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	1.20B	765.33M	705.74M	653.30M	486.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	85.19M	69.24M	-286.15M	-479.20M	-376.27M	-202.12M
Operating Cash Flow	153.12M	135.66M	-246.96M	-431.50M	-335.24M	-182.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.45M	137.62M	168.50M	330.34M	-205.19M	-331.46M
Financing Cash Flow	24.28M	30.20M	254.46M	482.64M	576.19M	500.85M

Natera Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 168.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 168.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.61, above the 50-day MA of 158.12, and above the 200-day MA of 151.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRA.

Natera Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DGX	79 Outperform	$19.94B	22.58	13.35%	1.79%	9.38%	6.43%
NTRA	73 Outperform	$22.42B	―	-18.66%	―	51.50%	53.23%
QGEN	72 Outperform	$10.28B	115.09	2.67%	2.78%	3.31%	-72.63%
EXAS	59 Neutral	$9.79B	―	-36.89%	―	11.57%	-315.25%
GH	57 Neutral	$6.18B	―	-4584.47%	―	28.20%	13.87%
ILMN	54 Neutral	$14.76B	―	-23.82%	―	-3.47%	25.55%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.41B	0.32	-61.11%	2.34%	16.99%	1.69%

Natera Corporate Events

Natera Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, Natera, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where an amendment to the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares reserved for issuance by 3.6 million. This decision, along with the election of directors and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, reflects Natera’s strategic focus on enhancing its equity structure and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRA) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Natera stock, see the NTRA Stock Forecast page.