Want to see NPCE full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
NeuroPace
(NASDAQ:NPCE)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(1.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality—persistent losses, negative free cash flow, and high leverage with a thin equity cushion—alongside recent revenue growth deterioration. The earnings call offered meaningful positives (raised revenue guidance, improving EBITDA outlook, strong gross margin and operating leverage), but a subsequent FDA setback on IGE expansion and modestly weak near-term technical positioning limit upside confidence.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained gross margins above 80% reflect strong device economics and pricing power for the RNS System. High product margins create durable operating leverage as sales scale, helping the company convert incremental revenue into improved cash generation and insulating core profitability from volume variability.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity cushion
High leverage relative to a shrunken equity base reduces financial flexibility and increases insolvency and dilution risk if cash burn reaccelerates. Elevated debt loads constrain ability to fund growth or respond to regulatory delays without costly external financing or shareholder dilution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained gross margins above 80% reflect strong device economics and pricing power for the RNS System. High product margins create durable operating leverage as sales scale, helping the company convert incremental revenue into improved cash generation and insulating core profitability from volume variability.
Read all positive factors
NeuroPace (NPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$499.76M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)181.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth11.59%
EPS Growth31.90%
CountryUS
Employees220
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.57
Shares Outstanding34,324,272
10 Day Avg. Volume169,331
30 Day Avg. Volume181,278
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)26.55
Price to Sales (P/S)5.05
P/FCF Ratio-44.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.33Price Target Upside37.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$99.91M
NeuroPace Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. The company develops RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system that delivers personalized, real-time treatment at the seizure source for treating drug-resistant...
How the Company Makes Money
NeuroPace primarily makes money by selling its RNS System for use in eligible patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. Revenue is generated mainly from: (1) sales of implantable neurostimulation devices (including the neurostimulator and intra...
NeuroPace Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid commercial momentum and improving non‑GAAP profitability metrics, highlighted by double‑digit RNS growth (21%+) and upgraded full‑year guidance and margin outlook. Strategic progress was underscored by the AI product launch (ECoG Assistant), deep proprietary EEG data (27M+ recordings), and ongoing model training and remote care development. The principal negative item was the FDA's determination that the IGE PMA supplement was not approvable in its current form, which introduces regulatory timing uncertainty and the need for additional analyses—however, the agency remained interactive and recommended the SIR process, and management expects to pursue an amendment. Other smaller headwinds included a significant decline in service revenue and modest gross margin pressure. On balance, operational momentum, product innovation, and improved adjusted profitability substantially outweigh the setbacks, though regulatory risk remains a key watch item.Positive Updates
Revenue and RNS System Growth
Total revenue of $22.8M in Q2 2026, up 17% year-over-year. RNS System revenue of $22.5M, up 21.3% YoY. RNS revenue for 1H 2026 was $44.2M, up 20.4% YoY, consistent with the company's long‑term growth framework.
Negative Updates
IGE PMA Supplement: Not Approvable in Current Form
FDA informed NeuroPace that the IGE PMA supplement is not approvable as submitted and requested additional clinical context and subgroup analyses (including by baseline GTC seizure frequency and clinical meaningfulness). This creates regulatory timing uncertainty and the potential for additional submissions or Q&A; the agency retains discretion to reset the 180‑day review clock.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and RNS System Growth
Total revenue of $22.8M in Q2 2026, up 17% year-over-year. RNS System revenue of $22.5M, up 21.3% YoY. RNS revenue for 1H 2026 was $44.2M, up 20.4% YoY, consistent with the company's long‑term growth framework.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NeuroPace raised 2026 total revenue guidance to $99.5–$101.5M (from $99–$101M), with underlying RNS revenue unchanged at $98.5–$100.5M (implying RNS growth of 21%–23% y/y) and service revenue now expected at ~ $1.0M (vs. prior $0.5M); management expects Q3 RNS growth similar to H1 (~20% y/y). Full‑year adjusted gross margin was increased to 82%–83% (from 81.5%–82.5%), and adjusted operating expenses are guided to $90–$92M (including ~ $10M of stock‑based compensation) with adjusted S&M $46–$48M, R&D ≈ $27M and G&A ≈ $17M. The company now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.5–$8.5M (improved from $8.5–$9.5M). For context, Q2 results driving this outlook included total revenue $22.8M (+17% y/y), RNS revenue $22.5M (+21.3% y/y), H1 RNS $44.2M (+20.4% y/y), Q2 adjusted gross margin 83.4% (GAAP 82.8%), Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss $2.8M, cash & equivalents $51.9M and long‑term borrowings $59.0M as of 6/30/26.NeuroPace Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 98.84M | 99.99M | 79.91M | 65.42M | 45.52M | 45.18M |
| Gross Profit | 78.70M | 77.22M | 59.09M | 48.12M | 32.49M | 33.44M |
| EBITDA | -12.29M | -12.06M | -16.57M | -22.83M | -36.57M | -28.37M |
| Net Income | -19.11M | -21.46M | -27.14M | -32.96M | -47.08M | -36.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 96.99M | 105.56M | 94.65M | 107.65M | 114.11M | 133.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.70M | 61.06M | 52.76M | 66.45M | 77.41M | 115.58M |
| Total Debt | 69.93M | 70.84M | 73.34M | 72.39M | 69.77M | 49.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 85.11M | 86.53M | 86.63M | 87.00M | 79.33M | 60.06M |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.88M | 19.03M | 8.01M | 20.65M | 34.78M | 73.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.61M | -11.34M | -18.25M | -19.87M | -37.47M | -24.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.24M | -11.01M | -17.95M | -19.70M | -36.87M | -24.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -369.00K | -332.00K | 8.99M | 23.03M | 23.80M | -85.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.41M | 19.60M | 4.33M | 8.13M | 490.00K | 102.53M |
NeuroPace Technical Analysis
Negative
14.81
Price Trends
15.55
Negative
15.64
Negative
15.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
46.81
Neutral
84.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NPCE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.66, below the 50-day MA of 15.55, and below the 200-day MA of 15.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NPCE.
NeuroPace Risk Analysis
NeuroPace disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NeuroPace reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NeuroPace Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $555.21M | 21.55 | 11.49% | ― | 17.22% | 74.89% | |
70 Outperform | $593.70M | 1,578.18 | 0.46% | ― | 35.85% | -76.27% | |
56 Neutral | $879.24M | -13.21 | -38.19% | ― | 31.70% | -28.13% | |
55 Neutral | $419.29M | -3.41 | -165.83% | ― | 90.63% | -11.42% | |
52 Neutral | $293.65M | -6.20 | -17.35% | ― | -13.24% | -42.62% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $499.76M | -25.38 | -119.68% | ― | 11.59% | 31.90% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NPCE
NeuroPace
14.51
5.48
60.69%
DCTH
Delcath Systems
17.36
6.89
65.81%
SENS
Senseonics Holdings
7.73
-1.89
-19.63%
TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology
23.71
11.33
91.52%
RXST
RxSight
7.01
-1.21
-14.72%
CBLL
Ceribell, Inc.
23.25
11.46
97.20%
NeuroPace Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NeuroPace faces FDA setback on epilepsy label expansion
Negative
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, NeuroPace announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had determined its Premarket Approval Supplement to expand the RNS System’s label to include antiseizure medication-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy wi...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NeuroPace Shareholders Approve Directors and Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 5, 2026, NeuroPace, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually, where shareholders approved the election of Class II directors Lisa Andrade and Scott Huennekens to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting, reinforcing continuit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.