NeuroPace (NPCE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $363.74M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 417.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 22.05%
• EPS Growth: 29.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 184
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 32,798,504
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 290,380
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 417,500
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.45
• 1Y Price Target: $17.67
• Price Target Upside: 59.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(17.22%Upside)

NeuroPace's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including high leverage and cash flow issues. However, strong earnings call guidance, positive corporate events, and revenue growth potential provide a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

NPCE announced the refinancing of its $60mn term loan at much more attractive terms, reducing annual cash burn by ~$3.5mn.

Regulatory Engagement

NPCE has a solid case to support FDA approval in IGE based on the totality of the NAUTILUS data.

Revenue Growth

NPCE maintained its 2025 guidance and remains confident in their ability to achieve the over 20% revenue CAGR LRP through 2027.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Results

The primary effectiveness endpoint did not reach statistical significance in the overall study population.

Price Target Adjustment

Analyst decreases the price target for NPCE from $18 to $16.

Regulatory Risk

The NAUTILUS announcement creates additional near-term regulatory risk for the company.

NeuroPace Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) is a medical technology company that specializes in developing and manufacturing devices for the treatment of neurological disorders. The company's flagship product is the RNS® System, a responsive neurostimulation device designed to monitor and treat epileptic seizures. NeuroPace operates within the healthcare sector, focusing on neurology and neurotechnology, and is committed to improving the quality of life for patients suffering from epilepsy.

How the Company Makes Money

NeuroPace generates revenue primarily through the sale of its RNS® System to hospitals and medical institutions. The company makes money by charging for the initial implantation of the device as well as through ongoing monitoring and management services associated with the device's use. Revenue is also derived from follow-up procedures and replacement parts or upgrades. NeuroPace works closely with healthcare providers and insurance companies to ensure its devices are accessible to patients, which can also influence its revenue streams. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations within the medical technology industry may contribute to its financial performance.

NeuroPace Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NeuroPace demonstrates revenue growth with a 22% increase, but struggles with profitability and liquidity due to negative EBIT, net income, and free cash flow. The high debt-to-equity ratio indicates financial risk, necessitating improved operational efficiencies and financial management.

Income Statement

NeuroPace shows a positive revenue growth trend with a 22% increase from the previous year. However, the company is facing challenges with profitability as reflected in negative EBIT and net income margins. The gross profit margin remains strong at 74%, but the net profit margin remains at 0%, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to substantial debt levels, indicating potential financial risk. Equity has significantly decreased, impacting financial stability. The equity ratio is low at about 8%, highlighting reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

NeuroPace's free cash flow remains negative, indicating cash constraints. The free cash flow growth shows a slight improvement but remains negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting cash generation issues relative to reported earnings.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
84.31M	79.91M	65.42M	45.52M	45.18M	41.14M
	Gross Profit
63.08M	59.09M	48.12M	32.49M	33.44M	30.27M
	EBIT
-19.27M	-21.67M	-27.17M	-40.79M	-23.74M	-13.05M
	EBITDA
-15.48M	-16.57M	-22.83M	-36.57M	-28.37M	-12.48M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-18.22M	-27.14M	-32.96M	-53.37M	-38.11M	-35.98M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
66.26M	52.76M	66.45M	77.41M	115.58M	38.08M
	Total Assets
110.20M	94.65M	107.65M	114.11M	133.56M	55.95M
	Total Debt
73.15M	73.34M	72.39M	69.77M	49.85M	52.86M
	Net Debt
46.13M	59.91M	54.34M	63.16M	30.66M	26.47M
	Total Liabilities
85.94M	86.63M	87.00M	79.33M	60.06M	203.78M
	Stockholders Equity
24.27M	8.01M	20.65M	34.78M	73.50M	-147.83M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-18.11M	-18.25M	-19.87M	-37.47M	-24.96M	-21.67M
	Operating Cash Flow
-17.90M	-17.95M	-19.70M	-36.87M	-24.58M	-21.61M
	Investing Cash Flow
6.56M	8.99M	23.03M	23.80M	-85.40M	-10.77M
	Financing Cash Flow
25.36M	4.33M	8.13M	490.00K	102.53M	55.01M

NeuroPace Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NPCE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.56, below the 50-day MA of 12.75, and above the 200-day MA of 10.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NPCE.

NeuroPace Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRTS	64 Neutral	$79.27M	43.86	3.46%	―	24.75%	-61.29%
CLPT	59 Neutral	$327.87M	―	-76.21%	―	23.22%	9.54%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.34B	3.36	-45.10%	3.39%	16.81%	-0.03%
CVRX	51 Neutral	$153.31M	―	-76.01%	―	25.62%	11.86%
NPCE	50 Neutral	$363.74M	―	-128.49%	―	22.05%	29.86%
SENS	49 Neutral	$386.50M	―	-161.19%	―	1.64%	16.02%
NNOX	47 Neutral	$335.39M	―	-30.11%	―	15.32%	15.73%

NeuroPace Corporate Events

NeuroPace Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 6, 2025, NeuroPace, Inc. conducted its Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually, where key proposals were voted on. Stockholders elected Class I director nominees Joel Becker and Frank Fischer to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (NPCE) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NeuroPace stock, see the NPCE Stock Forecast page.

NeuroPace Secures $75 Million Credit Facility with MidCap

On June 4, 2025, NeuroPace, Inc. entered into a $75 million credit facility with MidCap Financial, comprising a $60 million term loan and a $15 million revolving credit facility. This new financing arrangement allowed NeuroPace to repay its existing loan with CRG Partners IV, L.P., and the revolving credit will support working capital and corporate purposes. The favorable terms of the new credit facility are expected to reduce cash interest expenses and support NeuroPace’s growth initiatives, including expanding access to the RNS System and investing in new product developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (NPCE) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NeuroPace stock, see the NPCE Stock Forecast page.

NeuroPace Announces Promising NAUTILUS Study Results

On May 27, 2025, NeuroPace announced the preliminary one-year results of its NAUTILUS study, which evaluates the safety and effectiveness of the RNS System for treating drug-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy. The study met its primary safety endpoint and showed significant seizure reduction in a key patient subgroup, suggesting potential benefits for a substantial portion of patients. NeuroPace plans to engage with the FDA regarding regulatory pathways and is confident in its long-term growth strategy, reaffirming its 2025 financial guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NPCE) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NeuroPace stock, see the NPCE Stock Forecast page.

NeuroPace Expects Minimal Impact from Trade Tariffs

On April 14, 2025, NeuroPace announced that it expects minimal impact from international trade tariffs on its operations and financial results, reaffirming its gross margin guidance for 2025. The company, which primarily manufactures and sells its devices in the U.S., anticipates no significant effect on its gross margin despite terminating its SEEG distribution agreement with DIXI Medical effective October 1, 2025. NeuroPace will report its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 13, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the same day.

NeuroPace Shifts Focus to Core RNS System

On April 2, 2025, NeuroPace, Inc. announced a strategic shift in its product portfolio, focusing on its core RNS System and ending its distribution agreement with DIXI Medical USA Corp. for SEEG products by September 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader plan to concentrate resources on expanding opportunities for the RNS System, including new indications and AI-enabled software, while maintaining 2025 revenue guidance and aiming for cash flow breakeven by 2027.