Nomura Holdings (NMR)
NYSE:NMR
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Nomura Holdings
(NYSE:NMR)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(1.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage risk, despite improved profitability. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), and the latest earnings call supports a moderately constructive view on full-year momentum and capital returns, but technicals remain soft with the stock below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Revenue scale and improved profitability
Sustained revenue growth and a ROE that reached the firm's long-term target demonstrate meaningful scale and improved core earnings quality. Scale supports diversified fee streams, funds reinvestment and capital returns, and reduces per-unit cost pressure, improving resilience across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative operating and free cash flow
Repeatedly negative operating and free cash flow materially reduces financial flexibility and increases dependence on funding markets and balance-sheet capacity. Over time this limits the firm's ability to self-fund investments, cushion shocks, and sustain capital returns without active capital management.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue scale and improved profitability
Sustained revenue growth and a ROE that reached the firm's long-term target demonstrate meaningful scale and improved core earnings quality. Scale supports diversified fee streams, funds reinvestment and capital returns, and reduces per-unit cost pressure, improving resilience across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nomura Holdings (NMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.22B
Dividend Yield4.76%
Average Volume (3M)772.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.3
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth1.59%
EPS Growth8.31%
CountryUS
Employees26,850
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)125.20
Shares Outstanding3,088,562,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,118,375
30 Day Avg. Volume772,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.51
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio-3.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34K
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda60.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.58B
Nomura Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomura makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading/investment income across its core segments. (1) Wealth Management: Generates revenue primarily from brokerage commissions and transaction-related fees on client trading, fees from distri...
Nomura Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Positive but cautious. The company reported strong full-year results with record net income, ROE achievement, robust AUM growth and recurring revenue momentum (particularly in Wealth and Investment Management). However, Q4 showed meaningful sequential profit weakness driven by impairments, higher one-off expenses, geopolitical-related trading impacts and asset-flow/outflow pockets that require monitoring. Management emphasizes balanced capital use, cost control and selective risk-taking, suggesting confidence in medium-term growth but with near-term headwinds to watch.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financials and ROE Target Achieved
Full-year group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% YoY to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% YoY to JPY 362.1 billion (record high for 2nd consecutive year). Full-year ROE reached 10.1%, meeting the group's 8%–10%+ target two years early. Four-segment income before income taxes hit an all-time high of JPY 506.9 billion.
Negative Updates
Q4 Earnings Decline
Quarter-on-quarter, group income before income taxes fell 20% to JPY 107.7 billion and net income declined 19% to JPY 73.9 billion. Q4 ROE was 8% and EPS was JPY 24.34, indicating a notable sequential slowdown in profitability versus the full-year strength.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financials and ROE Target Achieved
Full-year group net revenue rose 15% YoY to JPY 2,167.7 billion; income before income taxes increased 14% YoY to JPY 539.8 billion; net income grew 6% YoY to JPY 362.1 billion (record high for 2nd consecutive year). Full-year ROE reached 10.1%, meeting the group's 8%–10%+ target two years early. Four-segment income before income taxes hit an all-time high of JPY 506.9 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nomura reiterated its 2030 targets and near‑term capital/operational guidance: it will pay an ordinary dividend of JPY 24 per share (bringing the full‑year dividend to JPY 51 and a 41% payout ratio), aims to sustain an ROE of 8–10%+ (already achieved 10.1% for FY‑2026) and income‑before‑taxes > JPY 500 billion (FY‑2026: JPY 539.8bn), while managing capital so CET1 should remain stable (12.9% at end‑Mar, −0.1pt q‑q) as growth is largely self‑funded; management said Wealth Management revenue is largely steady (Q4 net revenue JPY133.1bn, Q4 income before taxes JPY61.2bn, recurring revenue JPY56.8bn, net inflows JPY422.8bn, 1.74m flow clients), Investment Management AUM hit ~JPY137tn (>50% y/y, alternative AUM JPY3.6tn), and Wholesale showed April momentum above Q4 (Q4 wholesale net revenue JPY308.1bn, income before taxes JPY43.2bn) even as Q4 group net revenue rose to JPY2,167.7bn (+15% y/y) with Q4 revenues of JPY577.2bn (+5% q‑q) and group expenses including one‑offs at JPY469.5bn (+13% q‑q); private‑credit exposure remains diversified at roughly $800m lender financing, $1.2bn direct lending and $400m IM holdings (~$2.4bn total), and management expects one‑off expense items to abate as it balances revenue growth, cost control and targeted investments.Nomura Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.36T | 4.76T | 4.51T | 3.97T | 2.30T | 1.37T |
| Gross Profit | 1.76T | 2.17T | 1.66T | 1.38T | 1.14T | 1.14T |
| EBITDA | 532.95B | 608.09B | 533.62B | 335.19B | 210.90B | 286.15B |
| Net Income | 370.05B | 362.13B | 340.74B | 165.86B | 92.79B | 143.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 60.37T | 62.65T | 56.80T | 55.15T | 47.77T | 43.41T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.65T | 5.01T | 5.51T | 5.15T | 4.52T | 14.65T |
| Total Debt | 31.79T | 17.30T | 31.35T | 30.96T | 26.15T | 23.48T |
| Total Liabilities | 56.76T | 58.79T | 53.22T | 51.70T | 44.55T | 40.44T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49T | 3.71T | 3.47T | 3.35T | 3.15T | 2.91T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.20T | -868.58B | -13.14B | -865.99B | -974.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -842.96B | -678.61B | 132.64B | -694.82B | -862.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.50T | -848.65B | -887.94B | -233.22B | -593.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.10T | 1.68T | 1.01T | 1.28T | 1.11T |
Nomura Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
8.89
Price Trends
8.12
Positive
8.39
Positive
7.96
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
57.93
Neutral
84.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.13, above the 50-day MA of 8.12, and above the 200-day MA of 7.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMR.
Nomura Holdings Risk Analysis
Nomura Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomura Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nomura Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $29.33B | 13.83 | 17.21% | 1.26% | 5.83% | 1.44% | |
73 Outperform | $344.27B | 18.31 | 16.38% | 2.14% | 16.32% | 29.43% | |
70 Outperform | $153.04B | 16.46 | 19.08% | 1.07% | 8.11% | 53.31% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $322.33B | 17.46 | 14.58% | 1.55% | 2.63% | 26.98% | |
62 Neutral | $23.34B | 25.66 | 17.04% | 0.32% | 38.08% | -22.75% | |
59 Neutral | $24.22B | 0.27 | 10.11% | 4.76% | 1.59% | 8.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMR
Nomura Holdings
8.41
2.17
34.78%
LPLA
LPL Financial
288.49
-99.05
-25.56%
MS
Morgan Stanley
211.93
83.22
64.65%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
151.45
6.63
4.58%
SCHW
Charles Schwab
88.84
1.70
1.95%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
1,038.68
436.80
72.57%
Nomura Holdings Corporate Events
Nomura Files May Form 6-K on 122nd Shareholder Meeting Materials
May 29, 2026
Nomura Holdings has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for May 2026, furnishing English translations related to its 122nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The filing includes the official notice of convocation...
Nomura Posts Double-Digit Revenue and Profit Growth for Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026
May 7, 2026
Nomura reported strong results for the year ended March 31, 2026, with net revenue rising 14.5% year-on-year to ¥2,167.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders reaching ¥362.1 billion. The group’s return on equity came...
Nomura Files April 2026 Corporate Governance Report Detailing Strategic Shareholding Cuts and Diversity Focus
Apr 28, 2026
Nomura Holdings filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for April 2026, furnishing an English translation of its Corporate Governance Report that was filed with the Tokyo Stock Exchange on April 28, 2026. The report reaff...
Nomura to Release FY2025/26 Q4 and Full-Year Results on April 24
Mar 19, 2026
Nomura Holdings said on March 19, 2026, that it plans to announce operating results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, on April 24 in Tokyo. The group will release financial statements and presentation materials on ...
Nomura Details Progress of ¥60 Billion Share Buyback Program in February 2026
Mar 12, 2026
Nomura Holdings disclosed a February 2026 share buyback update, detailing repurchases of 7,913,300 common shares between February 17 and February 27 for a total of about ¥11.3 billion. This activity is part of a board-approved program from Ja...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.