Want to see NL:TFG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Tetragon Financial
(TFG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(5.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent fundamentals—TTM revenue collapse, a swing to net loss, and very large negative operating/free cash flow—despite a conservatively levered balance sheet. Technicals are mildly positive in the short-to-medium term but not strong enough to offset fundamental volatility. Valuation is a key support, with a very low P/E and an above-average dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage gives TFG greater resilience against portfolio losses and funding stress. The large equity base provides financial flexibility to hold investments through cycles, although sustained losses could gradually weaken this protection.
Negative Factors
Severe Revenue Deterioration
The sharp TTM revenue decline and return to losses indicate that earnings are not currently dependable. If this weakness persists, it could reduce internal capital generation, constrain distributions and erode the equity base despite low leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage gives TFG greater resilience against portfolio losses and funding stress. The large equity base provides financial flexibility to hold investments through cycles, although sustained losses could gradually weaken this protection.
Read all positive factors
Tetragon Financial (TFG) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend Yield3.36%
Average Volume (3M)17.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.5
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-64.07%
EPS Growth-73.33%
CountryNL
Employees530
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.00
Shares Outstanding139,694,470
10 Day Avg. Volume4,541
30 Day Avg. Volume17,584
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio-4.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Tetragon Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tetragon Financial Group Limited (TFG) operates as a closed-end feeder fund, established and actively managed by Tetragon Financial Management LP. Its primary function is to invest all of its capital exclusively into Tetragon Financial Group Maste...
How the Company Makes Money
TFG makes money primarily by earning returns on its investment portfolio and, where applicable, by generating fee-related income from asset-management interests. Key sources of earnings typically include: (1) Investment income and gains: interest ...
Tetragon Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong operational and investment performance — notably a 19.6% NAV total return for 2025, ROE of 23.4%, and material gains from Equitix, Ripple and Hawke's Point — together with significant near-term cash inflows from the BGO sale enabling buybacks and debt reduction. However, the company faces material headwinds: large CLO/LCM losses and AUM declines, a negative net cash/leverage position prior to BGO proceeds, persistent and large share-price discount to NAV (~58.6%), and recurring dilution and fee/interest drags on NAV. Overall, the positives in realized and unrealized investment gains and the expected BGO proceeds are strong, but structural market sentiment (the discount) and credit-related losses remain important challenges.Positive Updates
Strong NAV and Total Return
Fully diluted NAV per share of $41.88 at 31-Dec-2025; NAV per share total return of 19.6% for 2025 and an annualized NAV per share total return of 11.2% since IPO.
Negative Updates
Large Persistent Discount to NAV
Share price $17.35 vs NAV $41.88 at year-end, implying a discount of approximately 58.6%; management notes historically limited impact of buybacks on narrowing the discount despite ~$860M of prior buybacks.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong NAV and Total Return
Fully diluted NAV per share of $41.88 at 31-Dec-2025; NAV per share total return of 19.6% for 2025 and an annualized NAV per share total return of 11.2% since IPO.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated its forward priorities and near-term capital guidance: they will prioritize buybacks over higher recurring dividends (buybacks accretive on large discounts), plan to deploy $50m immediately to repurchase shares from the roughly $475m gross expected BGO sale proceeds (of which $155m is a one‑off amount accretive to 2025 year‑end NAV), then use remaining proceeds to pay taxes and reduce debt on a $500m revolver ( ~$350m drawn), leaving net cash positions that moved from cash $27.1m / net cash ≈ -$316.4m at year‑end to January net ≈ -$413m; longer‑term capital use will balance investments, buybacks and dividends. They reiterated performance targets and metrics as the basis for value creation and investor outreach — fully diluted NAV per share $41.88 (31‑Dec‑25), NAV per share total return 19.6% in 2025 and 11.2% annualized since IPO, ROE 23.4% in 2025 (target 10–15%, avg. since IPO 12.1%), Q4 dividend $0.12 (Q3 $0.11), FY dividend $0.45 (≈2.6% yield on $17.35 year‑end share price), prior buybacks ~$860m and dividends ~ $1bn to date, and near‑term commitments of ~$99.9m — all accompanied by a commitment to improve performance, transparency and market education to address the persistent discount.Tetragon Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.25M | 1.03B | 365.00M | 240.40M | 61.70M | 611.00M |
| Gross Profit | 476.55M | 778.80M | 365.00M | 240.40M | -5.90M | 448.90M |
| EBITDA | 2.10M | 756.90M | 377.30M | 165.10M | -21.80M | 425.40M |
| Net Income | -102.45M | 729.60M | 352.20M | 141.10M | -32.10M | 418.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.93B | 4.26B | 3.56B | 3.11B | 2.97B | 3.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.60M | 27.10M | 30.50M | 23.10M | 21.70M | 198.80M |
| Total Debt | 185.00M | 350.00M | 300.00M | 250.00M | 115.00M | 75.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 295.80M | 364.70M | 391.90M | 280.40M | 215.70M | 187.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.63B | 3.89B | 3.17B | 2.83B | 2.76B | 2.88B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -238.60M | -367.50M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -238.60M | -367.50M | 47.10M | -26.00M | -111.00M | 64.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 699.60M | 339.40M | 113.60M | 119.60M | -28.60M | 164.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -400.10M | 24.70M | -39.70M | 27.40M | -66.10M | -57.10M |
Tetragon Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
13.80
Price Trends
13.46
Positive
13.11
Positive
14.30
Negative
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
68.02
Neutral
73.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:TFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.56, above the 50-day MA of 13.46, and below the 200-day MA of 14.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:TFG.
Tetragon Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | €14.52B | 11.58 | ― | 3.34% | 13.61% | 28.51% | |
77 Outperform | €219.48M | -300.00 | -0.26% | 9.58% | 66.89% | -101.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $1.17B | 3.51 | 9.32% | 3.36% | -64.07% | -73.33% | |
51 Neutral | €13.60M | -15.66 | -4.06% | 7.52% | -44.85% | ― | |
47 Neutral | €5.46B | 126.68 | 2.17% | 2.21% | 0.52% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
NL:TFG
Tetragon Financial
14.00
-3.25
-18.82%
NL:ECT
Eurocastle Investment
13.50
3.85
39.90%
NL:VALUE
VALUE8 N V
6.75
0.16
2.43%
NL:VTA
Volta Finance
6.00
-0.34
-5.32%
NL:ALLFG
Allfunds Group plc
9.07
3.29
57.00%
NL:CVC
CVC Capital Partners plc
13.90
-0.54
-3.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.