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Netflix
(NASDAQ:NFLX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$83.00
▼(-14.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/17/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (expanding margins and robust free cash flow) and constructive earnings-call guidance with multiple monetization initiatives and sizable buybacks. These positives are tempered by weak technical trends (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation that is fair but not clearly discounted, with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Expanding margins and profitability
Sustained margin expansion indicates durable operating leverage from scale and improved content economics. Higher net and gross margins support reinvestment in originals, fund product experiments (ads/gaming/GenAI) and underpin stronger free cash flow that can finance buybacks and strategic initiatives over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Absolute debt remains meaningful
Despite improved leverage ratios, a sizable absolute debt load limits headroom if revenue or cash flow materially weaken. Interest and principal obligations could constrain discretionary content spend or share repurchases in downturns, amplifying risk from cyclical subscriber or ad demand shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Expanding margins and profitability
Sustained margin expansion indicates durable operating leverage from scale and improved content economics. Higher net and gross margins support reinvestment in originals, fund product experiments (ads/gaming/GenAI) and underpin stronger free cash flow that can finance buybacks and strategic initiatives over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Netflix Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Paid Memberships
Shows the total number of paying subscribers, indicating Netflix's market reach, revenue potential, and overall popularity among consumers.
Shows the total number of paying subscribers, indicating Netflix's market reach, revenue potential, and overall popularity among consumers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNetflix (NFLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$310.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)44.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth18.57%
EPS Growth45.93%
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.23
Shares Outstanding4,210,798,300
10 Day Avg. Volume36,308,473
30 Day Avg. Volume44,448,213
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)14.90
Price to Sales (P/S)8.78
P/FCF Ratio41.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$97.15Price Target Upside-0.16% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering31
EPS Forecast (FY)3.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$51.38B
Netflix Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this conten...
How the Company Makes Money
Netflix primarily makes money by selling paid streaming subscriptions. Revenue is recognized over time as subscribers receive access to the service, and pricing varies by plan tier and geography. The company’s key revenue stream is monthly members...
Netflix Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid top-line guidance, clear early traction across new product areas (live events, ads, cloud gaming, GenAI-driven production), strong capital return via a record share repurchase, and continued disciplined content investment. Headwinds include modest growth in aggregate view hours, accelerating content expense, an existing ad-tier monetization gap, and short-term quarter-to-quarter variability. Overall the positives — revenue guidance, retention, ad and gaming monetization progress, GenAI efficiencies, and substantial buybacks — outweigh the described challenges.Positive Updates
Strong 2026 Top-Line Guidance
Company guided to Q3 reported revenue growth of 12% year-over-year (11% FX-neutral) and reiterated full-year 2026 top-line growth of 13–14% (roughly 12% FX-neutral), representing about $6 billion of incremental revenue year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Soft Growth in Total View Hours
Reported view hours grew only 2% in the first half of 2026 (an incremental ~1.5 billion hours year-over-year), reflecting continued softness in raw viewing hours per member despite management's emphasis on quality and variety of engagement.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong 2026 Top-Line Guidance
Company guided to Q3 reported revenue growth of 12% year-over-year (11% FX-neutral) and reiterated full-year 2026 top-line growth of 13–14% (roughly 12% FX-neutral), representing about $6 billion of incremental revenue year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Netflix guided Q3 reported revenue growth of 12% year-over-year (11% FX‑neutral) versus ~12% FX‑neutral in Q2, and reiterated full‑year 2026 top‑line growth of 13–14% (roughly 12% FX‑neutral), which equates to about $6 billion of incremental revenue year‑over‑year; content expense is expected to grow ~10% in 2026 (vs ~8% five‑year and ~14% decade averages) within a roughly $20 billion cash content framework; engagement metrics include H1 2026 view hours up 2% (~+1.5 billion hours YoY) versus 1.5% in 2025, live programming representing ~5% of content spend but ~1% of view hours (live drove 6 of the top 10 new‑member sign‑up days in five years), and season‑2 retention slightly improved year over year; scale and market opportunity cited: approaching ~1 billion people, <45% household penetration (~800 million addressable households), ~7% of the ~$670 billion addressable revenue market, and ~5% global TV view share; newer initiatives show early traction (ads plan at $8.99 US with ad‑tier ARM gap narrowing, cloud games monthly players up 11x since October, kids mobile engagement +600% YoY and Netflix Playground daily players +3x); capital allocation remains unchanged with $4.7 billion of buybacks in Q2 and about $27 billion of repurchase capacity remaining.Netflix Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 48.37B | 45.18B | 39.00B | 33.72B | 31.62B | 29.70B |
| Gross Profit | 23.76B | 21.91B | 17.96B | 14.01B | 12.45B | 12.37B |
| EBITDA | 30.60B | 30.25B | 26.31B | 21.51B | 20.33B | 19.04B |
| Net Income | 13.65B | 10.98B | 8.71B | 5.41B | 4.49B | 5.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.42B | 55.60B | 53.63B | 48.73B | 48.59B | 44.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.10B | 9.06B | 9.58B | 7.14B | 6.06B | 6.03B |
| Total Debt | 14.31B | 14.46B | 17.99B | 16.97B | 14.35B | 18.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.30B | 28.98B | 28.89B | 28.14B | 27.82B | 28.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 30.25B | 26.62B | 24.74B | 20.59B | 20.78B | 15.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.99B | 9.46B | 6.92B | 6.93B | 1.62B | -131.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.81B | 10.15B | 7.36B | 7.27B | 2.03B | 392.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21B | 1.04B | -2.18B | 541.75M | -2.08B | -1.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.37B | -10.35B | -4.07B | -5.95B | -664.25M | -1.15B |
Netflix Technical Analysis
Negative
97.31
Price Trends
80.94
Negative
87.93
Negative
94.00
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.97
Negative
42.01
Neutral
26.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFLX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.28, above the 50-day MA of 80.94, and above the 200-day MA of 94.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NFLX.
Netflix Risk Analysis
Netflix disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Netflix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Netflix Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $168.70B | 15.93 | 10.29% | 1.10% | 4.02% | 27.66% | |
74 Outperform | $21.26B | 105.63 | 7.64% | ― | 16.78% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $310.25B | 23.53 | 49.24% | ― | 18.57% | 45.93% | |
70 Outperform | $22.28B | 13.34 | 14.86% | 0.75% | 0.60% | -5.58% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $10.35B | -16.16 | -4.64% | 1.48% | 1.14% | 93.73% | |
55 Neutral | $68.90B | ― | -4.94% | ― | -2.78% | 84.26% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NFLX
Netflix
74.35
-53.07
-41.65%
PSKY
Paramount Skydance
9.14
-3.59
-28.20%
DIS
Walt Disney
99.71
-20.76
-17.23%
ROKU
Roku
143.82
52.72
57.87%
FOXA
Fox
56.81
0.95
1.71%
WBD
Warner Bros
27.29
14.45
112.54%
Netflix Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Netflix Shareholders Approve 2026 Proposals, New Board Chair
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Netflix held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, where a quorum was achieved with roughly 3.6 billion shares represented out of 4.21 billion eligible to vote. Shareholders elected all nominated directors to serve until the 20...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Netflix Boosts Capital Returns With New Buyback Authorization
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Netflix’s board approved a new $25 billion share repurchase authorization, supplementing its existing December 2024 program, which still had about $6.8 billion available as of March 31, 2026. The buybacks, which have no ex...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.