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Nebius Group
(NASDAQ:NBIS)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$163.00
▼(-26.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality (ongoing operating losses, stepped-up leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow). Offsetting this, technicals are broadly supportive and the earnings call highlighted strong growth, improving adjusted profitability, substantial prepayments, and a large backlog. Valuation remains a key constraint due to the extremely high P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Rapid AI cloud revenue growth
Exceptional revenue growth demonstrates strong customer demand for Nebius’s AI cloud infrastructure and rapid commercial scaling. If sustained, expanding utilization can improve operating leverage, strengthen market position, and provide a larger base for recurring infrastructure revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Core operating profitability remains weak
Positive net income has not yet translated into consistent operating profitability, leaving earnings quality dependent on factors outside the core business. Persistently weak EBIT and EBITDA could limit internally funded expansion and make results more vulnerable if revenue growth or utilization moderates.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid AI cloud revenue growth
Exceptional revenue growth demonstrates strong customer demand for Nebius’s AI cloud infrastructure and rapid commercial scaling. If sustained, expanding utilization can improve operating leverage, strengthen market position, and provide a larger base for recurring infrastructure revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)659.9
Beta (1Y)2.82
Revenue Growth460.89%
EPS Growth-71.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,543
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding238,400,160
10 Day Avg. Volume24,727,977
30 Day Avg. Volume18,464,184
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.26
Price to Book (P/B)4.59
Price to Sales (P/S)39.98
P/FCF Ratio-5.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue58.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit78.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda79.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$302.09Price Target Upside36.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.35B
Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company dedicated to developing comprehensive infrastructure to serve the global artificial intelligence industry. Its operations encompass several key areas. Central to its mission is Nebius, an AI-focused cloud ...
Nebius Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented overwhelmingly positive operational and commercial momentum: very strong top-line growth (Q2 revenue +454% YoY), large contracted backlog ($40B), expanded adjusted EBITDA and margins, substantial customer prepayments (> $9B) and diversified financing execution (ATM equity and asset-backed debt). Management also highlighted premium pricing signals (auction +15% vs prior highs) and new monetization motions (short-term high‑value deals, asset-light partnerships, Token Factory). Offsetting risks are notable but largely execution and timing related: heavy capital intensity (Q2 CapEx $5.7B; FY guide $20–$25B), a lag between capacity activation and revenue, early-stage business drag on consolidated margins, permitting/process risk at specific sites, and potential dilution/market volatility as they tap multiple funding sources. On balance, the positives—substantial growth, improved profitability, large contracted backlog and clear go‑to‑market innovations—outweigh the lowlights, though successful execution of the build and financing plans remains critical.Positive Updates
Explosive Revenue and ARR Growth
Group revenue grew 454% year-over-year to $582 million in Q2 and rose 46% sequentially. The Nebius AI business grew 514% year-over-year to $575 million, representing 98% of group revenue. Annualized run rate revenue reached $3.0 billion at the end of June, up ~598% year-over-year and ~58% from $1.9 billion at the end of March.
Negative Updates
Permitting / Public Hearing Uncertainty
The Vineland, New Jersey public hearing was adjourned without a vote. Although management characterized this as part of a normal process and remains optimistic, site-level approvals and community debates represent execution and timing risk for specific projects.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Explosive Revenue and ARR Growth
Group revenue grew 454% year-over-year to $582 million in Q2 and rose 46% sequentially. The Nebius AI business grew 514% year-over-year to $575 million, representing 98% of group revenue. Annualized run rate revenue reached $3.0 billion at the end of June, up ~598% year-over-year and ~58% from $1.9 billion at the end of March.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance, calling for annualized run‑rate revenue of $7–9 billion, group revenue of $3.0–3.4 billion, group adjusted EBITDA margin of ~40% and capital expenditures of $20–25 billion, with capacity deployed late in Q2 expected to begin contributing to revenue in Q3. They also raised year‑end contracted power to 5 GW while maintaining a connected‑power target of 800 MW–1 GW for 2026, cited more than $9 billion of customer prepayments this year, roughly $40 billion of contracted backlog, Q2 revenue of $582 million (Nebius AI $575M), Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $236 million (41% margin), Q2 CapEx of ~$5.7 billion, operating cash of $2.3 billion, $8 billion cash on hand, an ATM that raised ~$2.8 billion, and a $775 million asset‑backed facility priced at ~SOFR+250 bps.Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.36B | 529.80M | 91.50M | 9.80M | 13.50M | 4.76B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 363.60M | 47.80M | -9.80M | -14.90M | 2.43B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 559.30M | -267.20M | -260.60M | -101.40M | -38.89M |
| Net Income | 61.60M | 101.70M | -641.40M | 241.30M | 745.60M | -196.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.96B | 12.45B | 3.55B | 8.76B | 8.28B | 6.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.04B | 3.68B | 2.45B | 121.20M | 1.13B | 1.44B |
| Total Debt | 10.06B | 4.97B | 49.70M | 584.76M | 1.39B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.62B | 7.84B | 294.90M | 5.46B | 3.74B | 3.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.34B | 4.61B | 3.25B | 3.29B | 4.25B | 3.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.88B | -3.68B | -562.10M | 746.40M | 682.40M | -473.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.26B | 384.80M | 245.60M | 829.80M | 697.00M | 124.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.37B | -4.23B | 311.60M | -1.21B | -403.10M | 294.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 13.47B | 5.13B | 825.50M | 375.60M | -100.30M | -1.14B |
Nebius Group Technical Analysis
Negative
221.97
Price Trends
219.76
Negative
220.79
Negative
175.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-16.03
Positive
30.35
Neutral
12.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 221.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 210.36, above the 50-day MA of 219.76, and above the 200-day MA of 175.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBIS.
Nebius Group Risk Analysis
Nebius Group disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nebius Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nebius Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $3.95T | 29.61 | 33.22% | 0.71% | 17.79% | 31.42% | |
69 Neutral | $11.70B | 40.27 | 54.71% | ― | 21.41% | 83.31% | |
65 Neutral | $396.53B | 19.92 | 42.58% | 1.55% | 21.62% | 45.95% | |
64 Neutral | $12.88B | 31.79 | 8.49% | ― | 5.87% | -0.31% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $46.61B | 659.88 | 0.91% | ― | 460.89% | -71.23% | |
47 Neutral | $34.27B | -16.94 | -45.37% | ― | 115.26% | -47.09% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Nebius Group Corporate Events
Nebius Secures $3.5 Billion Citi Facility to Accelerate Global AI Cloud Build-Out
Oct 22, 2026
Nebius Group N.V. has secured a $3.5 billion senior secured bridge facility from Citi, agreed on October 17, 2026 and announced on October 22, 2026, to finance data center development, GPU procurement and other general corporate needs. The 364R...
Nebius Acquires Inferize to Boost AI Inference Efficiency
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Nebius announced the acquisition of Inferize, an inference optimization company whose technology and engineering team have been folded into Nebius Token Factory, its managed production AI inference platform. The deal is aimed a...
Nebius and Palantir Seal Sovereign AI Infrastructure Partnership
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Palantir Technologies Inc. and Nebius Group N.V. announced a strategic partnership to deliver a sovereign AI stack to Palantir’s commercial customers. Palantir designated Nebius as its preferred sovereign AI infrastruct...
Nebius Shareholders Approve Full Slate of AGM Resolutions, Bolstering Capital Flexibility
Aug 26, 2026
Nebius Group N.V., the Amsterdam-headquartered AI cloud firm listed on Nasdaq, provides a full-stack platform that supports the entire AI lifecycle, from data preparation and model training to deployment. Serving startups and enterprises globally,...
Nebius Group Raises $5.75 Billion in Convertible Notes to Fuel AI Cloud Expansion
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Nebius Group closed a private offering of two tranches of convertible senior notes, a 0.50% series due 2030 and a 4.50% series due 2034, raising total gross proceeds of about $5.75 billion from qualified institutional buyers. C...
Nebius Group Prices Upsized $5 Billion Convertible Notes to Fuel AI Cloud Expansion
Aug 20, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. priced an upsized private offering of $5.0 billion in convertible senior notes, split between 0.50% notes due 2030 and 4.50% notes due 2034, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The deal, in...
Nebius Group Launches $4.5 Billion Convertible Notes Offering to Fund AI Cloud Expansion
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a proposed private offering of $4.50 billion in convertible senior notes in two tranches maturing in 2030 and 2034, with an option for initial purchasers to buy up to an additional $675 million of no...
Nebius Group Files Mid-2025/2026 Financial Review and Updates Investors on AI Cloud-Driven Growth
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its operating and financial review and unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended Jun...
Nebius Group Posts Q2 2026 Revenue Surge as AI Cloud Scale-Up Gains Pace
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. reported unaudited financial results for the quarter and half‑year ended June 30, 2026, highlighting a dramatic surge in revenues driven by its AI cloud and related platforms. Quarterly revenue jumped fr...
Nebius Group Calls August 25 AGM to Approve 2025 Accounts and Reshape Capital Structure
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. notified investors of its Annual General Meeting of shareholders to be held on August 25, 2026, in Amsterdam, setting a July 28, 2026 record date to determine voting rights for its Class A and Class B shares. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.