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Nebius Group
(NASDAQ:NBIS)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$229.00
▲(3.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality (ongoing operating losses, stepped-up leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow). Offsetting this, technicals are broadly supportive and the earnings call highlighted strong growth, improving adjusted profitability, substantial prepayments, and a large backlog. Valuation remains a key constraint due to the extremely high P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Rapid AI cloud revenue growth and contracted demand
Exceptional growth and a large contracted backlog indicate strong customer demand for AI compute. These commitments can support multi-quarter revenue visibility and improve infrastructure utilization as deployed capacity comes online.
Negative Factors
Core operating profitability remains unproven
Adjusted quarterly progress has not yet translated into consistently positive core operating earnings. Persistent EBIT and EBITDA losses leave results vulnerable to execution setbacks and require continued scale, pricing, and cost improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid AI cloud revenue growth and contracted demand
Exceptional growth and a large contracted backlog indicate strong customer demand for AI compute. These commitments can support multi-quarter revenue visibility and improve infrastructure utilization as deployed capacity comes online.
Read all positive factors
Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)767.5
Beta (1Y)2.51
Revenue Growth460.89%
EPS Growth-71.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,543
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding238,400,160
10 Day Avg. Volume21,146,303
30 Day Avg. Volume24,897,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.26
Price to Book (P/B)4.59
Price to Sales (P/S)39.98
P/FCF Ratio-5.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$280.00Price Target Upside26.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.35B
Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company dedicated to developing comprehensive infrastructure to serve the global artificial intelligence industry. Its operations encompass several key areas. Central to its mission is Nebius, an AI-focused cloud ...
How the Company Makes Money
Nebius Group primarily makes money by selling cloud infrastructure services to businesses and developers, with revenue generated from usage-based and/or contracted consumption of computing resources. Key revenue streams include: (1) Compute: charg...
Nebius Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented overwhelmingly positive operational and commercial momentum: very strong top-line growth (Q2 revenue +454% YoY), large contracted backlog ($40B), expanded adjusted EBITDA and margins, substantial customer prepayments (> $9B) and diversified financing execution (ATM equity and asset-backed debt). Management also highlighted premium pricing signals (auction +15% vs prior highs) and new monetization motions (short-term high‑value deals, asset-light partnerships, Token Factory). Offsetting risks are notable but largely execution and timing related: heavy capital intensity (Q2 CapEx $5.7B; FY guide $20–$25B), a lag between capacity activation and revenue, early-stage business drag on consolidated margins, permitting/process risk at specific sites, and potential dilution/market volatility as they tap multiple funding sources. On balance, the positives—substantial growth, improved profitability, large contracted backlog and clear go‑to‑market innovations—outweigh the lowlights, though successful execution of the build and financing plans remains critical.Positive Updates
Explosive Revenue and ARR Growth
Group revenue grew 454% year-over-year to $582 million in Q2 and rose 46% sequentially. The Nebius AI business grew 514% year-over-year to $575 million, representing 98% of group revenue. Annualized run rate revenue reached $3.0 billion at the end of June, up ~598% year-over-year and ~58% from $1.9 billion at the end of March.
Negative Updates
Permitting / Public Hearing Uncertainty
The Vineland, New Jersey public hearing was adjourned without a vote. Although management characterized this as part of a normal process and remains optimistic, site-level approvals and community debates represent execution and timing risk for specific projects.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Explosive Revenue and ARR Growth
Group revenue grew 454% year-over-year to $582 million in Q2 and rose 46% sequentially. The Nebius AI business grew 514% year-over-year to $575 million, representing 98% of group revenue. Annualized run rate revenue reached $3.0 billion at the end of June, up ~598% year-over-year and ~58% from $1.9 billion at the end of March.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance, calling for annualized run‑rate revenue of $7–9 billion, group revenue of $3.0–3.4 billion, group adjusted EBITDA margin of ~40% and capital expenditures of $20–25 billion, with capacity deployed late in Q2 expected to begin contributing to revenue in Q3. They also raised year‑end contracted power to 5 GW while maintaining a connected‑power target of 800 MW–1 GW for 2026, cited more than $9 billion of customer prepayments this year, roughly $40 billion of contracted backlog, Q2 revenue of $582 million (Nebius AI $575M), Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $236 million (41% margin), Q2 CapEx of ~$5.7 billion, operating cash of $2.3 billion, $8 billion cash on hand, an ATM that raised ~$2.8 billion, and a $775 million asset‑backed facility priced at ~SOFR+250 bps.Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.36B | 529.80M | 117.50M | 20.90M | 13.50M | 4.76B |
| Gross Profit | 794.30M | 363.60M | 44.10M | -11.00M | -14.90M | 2.43B |
| EBITDA | 955.80M | 494.80M | -316.70M | -310.10M | -103.40M | 240.77M |
| Net Income | 61.60M | 101.70M | -641.40M | 241.30M | 745.60M | -196.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.96B | 12.45B | 3.55B | 8.76B | 8.28B | 6.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.04B | 3.68B | 2.45B | 121.20M | 1.13B | 1.44B |
| Total Debt | 10.06B | 4.97B | 49.70M | 584.76M | 1.39B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.62B | 7.84B | 294.90M | 5.46B | 3.74B | 3.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.34B | 4.61B | 3.25B | 3.29B | 4.25B | 3.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.88B | -3.68B | -562.10M | 746.40M | 682.40M | -473.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.26B | 384.80M | 245.60M | 829.80M | 697.00M | 124.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.37B | -4.23B | 311.60M | -1.21B | -403.10M | 294.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 13.47B | 5.13B | 825.50M | 375.60M | -100.30M | -1.14B |
Nebius Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
221.97
Price Trends
217.77
Negative
207.48
Negative
152.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Positive
46.37
Neutral
14.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 221.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 222.65, above the 50-day MA of 217.77, and above the 200-day MA of 152.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIS.
Nebius Group Risk Analysis
Nebius Group disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nebius Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nebius Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $36.19B | 30.41 | 14.15% | ― | 17.82% | 5490.04% | |
69 Neutral | $13.01B | 43.22 | 54.71% | ― | 21.41% | 83.31% | |
66 Neutral | $114.87B | -90.85 | -57.21% | ― | 31.07% | 16.46% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $429.54B | 23.78 | 50.59% | 1.74% | 17.35% | 32.98% | |
55 Neutral | $56.09B | 767.46 | 0.91% | ― | 460.89% | -71.23% | |
51 Neutral | $46.82B | -22.42 | -45.37% | ― | 115.26% | -47.09% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Nebius Group Corporate Events
Nebius Group Launches $4.5 Billion Convertible Notes Offering to Fund AI Cloud Expansion
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a proposed private offering of $4.50 billion in convertible senior notes in two tranches maturing in 2030 and 2034, with an option for initial purchasers to buy up to an additional $675 million of no...
Nebius Group Files Mid-2025/2026 Financial Review and Updates Investors on AI Cloud-Driven Growth
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its operating and financial review and unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended Jun...
Nebius Group Posts Q2 2026 Revenue Surge as AI Cloud Scale-Up Gains Pace
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. reported unaudited financial results for the quarter and half‑year ended June 30, 2026, highlighting a dramatic surge in revenues driven by its AI cloud and related platforms. Quarterly revenue jumped fr...
Nebius Group Calls August 25 AGM to Approve 2025 Accounts and Reshape Capital Structure
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. notified investors of its Annual General Meeting of shareholders to be held on August 25, 2026, in Amsterdam, setting a July 28, 2026 record date to determine voting rights for its Class A and Class B shares. Th...
Nebius Secures $775 Million Asset-Backed Facility to Fuel Global AI Cloud Expansion
Jul 17, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Nebius Group’s U.S. and Finnish subsidiaries entered into a senior secured term loan facility of approximately $775 million led by MUFG and a syndicate of global banks, backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted c...
Nebius Group Closes Acquisition of Eigen AI to Boost Full-Stack AI Cloud Platform
Jun 16, 2026
Nebius Group N.V., the Amsterdam-headquartered AI cloud provider, has completed its acquisition of Eigen AI, also known as MagicByte, Inc., a specialist in inference and model optimization. The deal, announced on May 1, 2026, closed on June 10, 20...
Nebius Group Posts Surging Q1 2026 Revenue but Wider Operating Costs in AI Cloud Push
May 20, 2026
Nebius Group N.V. reported operating and financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2026, highlighting the rapid expansion of its AI cloud business and related units TripleTen and Avride. The company filed a Form 6‑K wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.