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National Bank Holdings
(NYSE:NBHC)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(1.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/02/26
NBHC scores in the mid-range: solid underlying profitability and a generally sound balance sheet are tempered by slowing recent financial momentum and softer cash generation. Technicals are notably weak (below major moving averages with negative MACD and very low RSI), while valuation and dividend support the profile. The earnings call was broadly positive with confident guidance, but the recent disclosed credit event meaningfully increases near-term risk and offsets some of that optimism.
Positive Factors
Loan growth and net interest income momentum
Record loan originations and 10% year-to-date loan growth indicate continued demand across NBHC’s banking markets. The 25% increase in net interest income supports near-term earnings capacity and demonstrates that the core lending franchise remains capable of expanding through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material credit-event losses
The disclosed commercial and healthcare loan credit events represent a material deterioration in identified assets and create a significant earnings drag. The associated charge-offs, provisions, and partnership impairment could reduce capital available for growth and demonstrate that credit risk remains a meaningful medium-term exposure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan growth and net interest income momentum
Record loan originations and 10% year-to-date loan growth indicate continued demand across NBHC’s banking markets. The 25% increase in net interest income supports near-term earnings capacity and demonstrates that the core lending franchise remains capable of expanding through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.70B
Dividend Yield3.34%
Average Volume (3M)367.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth8.27%
EPS Growth-23.33%
CountryUS
Employees1,276
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.57
Shares Outstanding44,539,547
10 Day Avg. Volume497,839
30 Day Avg. Volume367,708
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio10.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.50Price Target Upside12.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)3.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$534.78M
National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) serves as the parent company for NBH Bank, providing a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to commercial businesses and individual consumers across the United States. The bank of...
How the Company Makes Money
NBHC primarily makes money through traditional banking activities conducted by its bank subsidiaries. The largest revenue driver is typically net interest income: the company earns interest and fees on loans (such as commercial real estate, commer...
National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operating and financial picture: record loan production, strong year-to-date loan growth (10%), significant revenue lift (NII +25% YoY), fee income acceleration, improving asset quality (NPAs low, classified assets down 47% YoY), solid capital metrics (CET1 12.3%) and clear integration progress with expected expense synergies. Offsetting items include underperformance of the 2UniFi initiative (high expense base vs limited revenue), some margin compression driven by loan churn and accretion volatility, spot deposit volatility and continued but declining net charge-offs. Overall, the positive growth, profitability improvements and confident guidance (near 4% NIM, full-year expense range, and >$1 EPS target for Q4 2026) outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Record Loan Production and Strong Loan Growth
Record quarterly loan originations of $927 million (Q2), driving year-to-date production of $1.7 billion and year-to-date annualized loan growth of 10%. Company expects full-year loan portfolio growth of 10%.
Negative Updates
2UniFi Revenue Underperformance
2UniFi revenue growth has been slow; management expects only $2 million to $4 million of revenue from the business for the year while expenses remain ~$20 million to $22 million. Although applications rose ~800% Q2 vs Q1, conversions and credit fit lag, and management is evaluating targeted marketing and partnership options.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Loan Production and Strong Loan Growth
Record quarterly loan originations of $927 million (Q2), driving year-to-date production of $1.7 billion and year-to-date annualized loan growth of 10%. Company expects full-year loan portfolio growth of 10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to full-year loan portfolio growth of 10%, a net interest margin near 4% (June month-end ~4%), fee income of $75–80 million, and total noninterest expense of $320–330 million (with Q4 run-rate expected below $80M and Q2 noninterest expense of $95M including $11.2M of acquisition/restructuring charges); they expect to realize or exceed Vista integration savings, remain on track for Q4 2026 EPS in excess of $1, and retain 2UniFi assumptions of ~$2–4M of revenue and $20–22M of expenses. Supporting metrics cited on the call include Q2 adjusted net income of $35.3M ($0.78 per diluted share, +33% annualized), Q2 FTE net interest income $111.5M (+25% YoY), record Q2 loan originations of $927M (YTD $1.7B) driving 10% YTD loan growth, Q2 NIM 3.94%, adjusted ROTAA 1.3% (+6 bps) and ROTE 12.7% (+92 bps), average deposit growth 2.3% annualized with deposit cost 1.93% (total cost of funds 2.01%), loan-to-deposit ratio 94.1%, provision expense $1.5M, annualized net charge-offs 27 bps, NPAs 35 bps, allowance coverage ratio 1.13% (3x coverage on NPLs) plus $19.6M of purchase marks (~20 bps additional coverage), CET1 12.3%, total capital 15.4%, tangible book $26.23 per share, and $11M of share repurchases in the quarter.National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 597.37M | 583.94M | 594.31M | 553.56M | 346.52M | 306.15M |
| Gross Profit | 460.33M | 403.97M | 394.68M | 411.80M | 291.94M | 301.62M |
| EBITDA | 159.52M | 164.51M | 169.44M | 199.46M | 102.63M | 128.56M |
| Net Income | 98.60M | 109.57M | 118.81M | 142.05M | 71.27M | 93.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.59B | 9.88B | 9.81B | 9.95B | 9.57B | 7.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.82B | 945.70M | 655.39M | 819.65M | 901.79M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 347.24M | 71.89M | 123.41M | 413.83M | 459.10M | 62.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.92B | 8.50B | 8.50B | 8.74B | 8.48B | 6.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.67B | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 840.11M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 127.05M | 132.50M | 120.68M | 130.10M | 202.20M | 179.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 168.75M | 162.42M | 155.27M | 166.94M | 214.63M | 179.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 15.63M | 186.49M | 64.66M | -404.03M | -752.14M | -473.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -100.17M | -59.70M | -284.41M | 230.90M | -114.20M | 528.99M |
National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
41.31
Price Trends
41.50
Negative
42.15
Negative
40.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.80
Positive
20.30
Positive
18.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.55, below the 50-day MA of 41.50, and above the 200-day MA of 40.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.30 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBHC.
National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis
National Bank Holdings disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.86B | 13.03 | 12.17% | 2.47% | 21.78% | 43.92% | |
78 Outperform | $1.71B | 11.33 | 11.75% | 1.27% | 2.81% | 23.43% | |
74 Outperform | $2.17B | 11.85 | 9.42% | 2.23% | 7.98% | -4.69% | |
72 Outperform | $1.65B | 11.88 | 12.70% | 0.41% | 6.17% | 27.24% | |
70 Outperform | $1.74B | 23.66 | 3.53% | ― | 27.40% | -37.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $1.70B | 14.81 | 6.47% | 3.34% | 8.27% | -23.33% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
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1.92%
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National Bank Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Announces Expanded Share Repurchase Program
Negative
Oct 1, 2026
In the third quarter of 2026, National Bank Holdings recorded significant credit-related impacts on specifically identified commercial loans in its franchise and healthcare portfolios following certain credit events, leading management to reduce t...
Dividends
National Bank Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its Class A common stock, reinforcing its shareholder return program across its multi-state community banking franchise. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Updates Q2 2026 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation published an updated second-quarter 2026 investor presentation on its website for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other market participants. The deck outlines current financial perf...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Reports Strong Second Quarter Results
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, National Bank Holdings posted net income of $26.5 million, up 27.4% from the prior quarter, with diluted EPS rising to $0.58 and adjusted net income reaching $35.3 million, or $0.78 per share. Returns on averag...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.