Vale SA (VALEN) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Vale expects to deliver iron ore production at the low end of its production guidance for the year, base-metals production in the upper half of the production guidance for both metals, and 2026 C1 and all-in costs within their respective guidance ranges; copper all-in cost is expected to finish 2026 near the lower end of the guidance range, nickel costs are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and return to levels broadly in line with the second quarter, with 2026 nickel cost guidance of $10,000 to $11,500 per tonne, and CapEx is expected to finish 2026 towards the lower end of the $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion guidance range. For the fourth quarter, C1 and all-in costs are expected to be relatively stable in relation to this quarter within the guidance range, with C1 probably a bit below and all in a bit above, while all-in is expected to be higher than the third quarter and closer to the high end of the guidance within the guidance. Serra Norte is expected to move sideways in 2027 at approximately 64 million tonnes a year, Serra Leste is expected to move from 8 million tonnes a year to 10 million tonnes a year and then to 30 million tonnes, and N3 is expected to produce around 6 million tonnes per year by 2028; about 5 million tonnes between third-party and own production could be eventually adjusted down next year. The Salobo CPF project will add 6 million tonnes per year to processing capacity, bringing the total to 42 million tonnes, with start-up expected in the first half of 2028, approximately 30,000 tonnes of copper per year and approximately 15,000 ounces of gold as a byproduct, supporting a production target of up to 500,000 tonnes of copper by 2030 and copper capacity of 700 kilotons by 2035; Alemão remains on track for 2030 on production, and if Vale closed its 2027 freight position today, costs would be something close to the range of 24 to 25.