United Parcel (UPS) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For full-year 2026, UPS now expects consolidated revenue of approximately $92.6 billion, consolidated operating profit of approximately $8.75 billion, diluted earnings per share of approximately $7.28, free cash flow of approximately $6.1 billion, capital expenditures of about $3 billion, dividends of around $5.4 billion, subject to board approval, and a tax rate of approximately 23%; for the fourth quarter, it expects consolidated revenue of approximately $25.7 billion, up approximately 5% year-over-year, operating profit of approximately $3.3 billion, U.S. Domestic revenue up approximately 3% year-over-year with an operating margin of approximately 10.5%, International revenue up approximately 7% with an operating margin of approximately 20%, Supply Chain Solutions revenue up nearly 13% with an operating margin of approximately 12.2%, approximately $190 million in below-the-line expense, and a tax rate of approximately 23%. Average daily volume is expected to increase approximately 25% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, while fourth quarter U.S. average daily volume is expected to be lower year-over-year; UPS expects a 50-100 basis points spread between RPP and CPP, 200-300 basis point base pricing and mix improvement, and International margin in 2027 to be in the mid to high teens.