Ecopetrol SA (ECN) AI Stock Analysis

Ecopetrol SA

(BMV:ECN)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

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Positive Factors

Integrated value chainDiversification across upstream, refining, pipelines and logistics reduces dependence on any single segment and lets Ecopetrol capture value through the chain. Strong refining and transport performance demonstrates the durability of its integrated operating model.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverageDebt remains above equity and leaves Ecopetrol more exposed to commodity downturns, higher financing costs and acquisition-related funding needs. Although leverage improved from prior years, it still constrains financial flexibility when earnings weaken.

Ecopetrol SA (ECN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 35.34B
Dividend Yield: 3.52%
Average Volume (3M): ―
Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.1
Beta (1Y): -0.11
Revenue Growth: -3.22%
EPS Growth: 6.27%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 28,197
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated

Ecopetrol SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ecopetrol SA engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates through the following segments: Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining and Petrochemicals. The Exploration...

Ecopetrol SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 02, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:7.96%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture driven by exceptional commodity and refining market conditions: record refining throughput and margins, substantial YoY increases in revenue, EBITDA and net income, solid cash generation and disciplined capital deployment. These positives were tempered by operational disruptions (notably the Meta blockade and power issues) that depressed production, material tax and FEPC-related receivable uncertainty, and some cost pressures in transportation and contingency preparedness (El Niño). On balance the favorable results, cash generation, discoveries, and execution of strategic projects outweigh the challenges.

Positive Updates

Strong Quarterly Financial Performance

Q2 2026 revenue COP 4.2 trillion (+35% YoY), EBITDA COP 17.7 trillion (+59% YoY) and net income COP 6.1 trillion (+235% YoY). Group EBITDA margin of 44% (≈+6 percentage points YoY). Highest quarterly net income since Q4 2022.

Negative Updates

Production Disruptions and Deferred Volumes

Production impacted by environmental and electrical disruptions and a 76-day blockade in Meta that deferred ~23,000 barrels per day. Reported Q2 production 706,000 boe/d and H1 average 715,000 boe/d; company target 730k–740k bpd for full year—actions underway to recover volumes.

Company Guidance

Ecopetrol reiterated a 2026 operating outlook focused on recovering volumes and sustaining refining and midstream momentum: H1 production averaged ~715,000 boe/d with management maintaining a full‑year target of 730,000–740,000 boe/d and actions to recover ~23,000 bpd deferred production (including a 7‑well Permian campaign expected to add ~4,000–5,000 bpd from late‑2026), record refining throughput of 439,000 bpd in Q2 (+6% YoY) with a Q2 refining gross margin of USD 29.8/bbl (Cartagena USD 31.6/bbl) and midstream transport >1.1 million bpd (+3.8% YoY), while exploration activity totaled 8 wells H1 with two discoveries (Copa Sul, Sandia‑1) and Copa Sul testing at up to 35 MMcf/d. On the financial side the company emphasized disciplined execution — USD 2.9 billion of investments executed YTD (71% Colombia, 22% Brazil, 7% U.S.; 63% hydrocarbons/29% transmission/8% energy transition), Q2 revenue COP 4.2 trillion, Q2 EBITDA COP 17.7 trillion (margin 44%) and Q2 net income COP 6.1 trillion (H1 net income COP 9 trillion), H1 operating cash flow COP 14.1 trillion, free cash flow COP 6 trillion, consolidated cash COP 11.3 trillion, CapEx outflow COP 8.4 trillion, dividend payments COP 6 trillion, gross debt/EBITDA ~2x (1.3x ex‑ISA), efficiency gains COP 2.6 trillion YTD, and a Fuel Price Stabilization Fund receivable of COP 8 trillion as of June (management expects year‑end FEPC between COP 8–12 trillion using a 2026 Brent scenario of ~USD 84–90/bbl and TRM ~3,200–3,500, and projects a 2027 FEPC accrual of COP 1–3 trillion under Brent ≈USD 72 and TRM 3,200–3,600).

Ecopetrol SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

MX:ECN against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQNR	79Outperform	$116.18B	10.11	27.45%	3.12%	12.89%	129.13%
E	78Outperform	$88.93B	10.40	15.47%	4.01%	9.45%	204.92%
BP	75Outperform	$129.89B	24.36	15.61%	4.00%	26.40%	473.45%
PBR	74Outperform	$133.56B	5.75	30.55%	6.49%	20.82%	86.33%
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
YPF	60Neutral	$20.03B	21.65	7.98%	―	-14.38%	34382.02%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:ECN and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MX:ECN	Ecopetrol	312.00	154.75	98.41%
BP	BP plc.	50.39	17.21	51.88%
E	Eni S.P.A.	60.80	25.43	71.89%
PBR	Petroleo Brasileiro	22.05	11.06	100.66%
EQNR	Equinor	48.75	25.62	110.76%
YPF	Ypf Sociedad Anonima	47.00	9.94	26.82%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Ecopetrol SA AI Stock Analysis