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Metallus
(NYSE:MTUS)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(6.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
MTUS scores mid-range primarily because weak cash generation (deeply negative TTM free cash flow) and thin, recently volatile profitability offset a very strong balance sheet. The latest earnings call was a key positive, highlighting accelerating demand (order book/backlog strength) and improving outlook, while technicals are neutral-to-soft and valuation is a notable headwind due to the very high P/E.
Positive Factors
Order book and demand visibility
The expanding order book and nearly doubled industrial backlog provide stronger forward shipment visibility and support capacity planning. This demand base can help Metallus sustain revenue growth and improve operating leverage as utilization and execution recover.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow means reported profitability is not currently converting into substantial cash generation. If investment needs or working-capital demands remain elevated, cash burn could constrain capital allocation and reduce the benefit of the strong balance sheet.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Order book and demand visibility
The expanding order book and nearly doubled industrial backlog provide stronger forward shipment visibility and support capacity planning. This demand base can help Metallus sustain revenue growth and improve operating leverage as utilization and execution recover.
Read all positive factors
Metallus Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product Type
Separates sales by product categories (for example raw materials, alloys, finished components, or services) to show which offerings generate the most revenue and likely margin. A shift toward higher‑value or service products can lift profitability even if overall sales are flat, while reliance on low‑margin commodities increases exposure to price swings. Helps identify margin drivers, product concentration, and areas where operational improvements or price power could matter most.
Separates sales by product categories (for example raw materials, alloys, finished components, or services) to show which offerings generate the most revenue and likely margin. A shift toward higher‑value or service products can lift profitability even if overall sales are flat, while reliance on low‑margin commodities increases exposure to price swings. Helps identify margin drivers, product concentration, and areas where operational improvements or price power could matter most.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMetallus (MTUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$792.10M
Dividend Yield3.74%
Average Volume (3M)319.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)100.6
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth16.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,865
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding41,449,284
10 Day Avg. Volume317,503
30 Day Avg. Volume319,127
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio-7.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.30B
Metallus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metallus Inc. specializes in the creation and global distribution of diverse steel products, including alloy, carbon, and micro-alloy varieties, serving both domestic and international markets. The company's extensive product portfolio features sp...
How the Company Makes Money
Metallus primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling specialty alloy steel products to customers that require engineered performance characteristics. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of steel in various grades and forms (e.g., bars or ot...
Metallus Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational and commercial progress: double-digit revenue growth (+12% y/y), adjusted EBITDA expansion (+9% y/y), a >50% larger order book, record aerospace & defense shipments, decisive capital investments (furnaces) partially funded by U.S. government support, strong liquidity and active share repurchases. Headwinds were largely operational and timing-related—melt utilization below plan (74%), higher energy and labor costs, short-term working capital pressures, and planned maintenance in Q3—with price increases expected to realize full benefit in 2027. Overall, the positives (top-line growth, backlog strength, strategic investments, certification, balance sheet) materially outweigh the manageable operational challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Second quarter net sales of $341.0 million, up $36.4 million or 12% year-over-year, driven by higher shipments in aerospace & defense and automotive.
Negative Updates
Suboptimal Melt Utilization
Average melt utilization of 74% in Q2, improved sequentially but below management expectations; utilization shortfall limited ability to fully offset higher energy and labor costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Second quarter net sales of $341.0 million, up $36.4 million or 12% year-over-year, driven by higher shipments in aerospace & defense and automotive.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Metallus guided that third‑quarter shipments should be similar to Q2 with price & mix slightly better and adjusted EBITDA expected to be slightly higher sequentially and year‑over‑year; average melt utilization is forecast to tick up modestly from Q2’s ~74% while manufacturing costs should be roughly flat as higher utilization is offset by increased planned maintenance (with a larger planned outage in Q4). Lead times for bar and tube extend into late Q4 2026, and announced price increases effective early August ($60/ton bar, $100/ton carbon seamless mechanical tubing, $160/ton alloy seamless tubing) are expected to reach full run‑rate benefit beginning in 2027 (affecting roughly 30% of the order book that is not contract‑covered). Full‑year 2026 guidance items include ~$70M of capex (about $35M of which is expected to be government‑funded), an adjusted effective tax rate of 27–30%, and management reiterated its goal to reach a $250M revenue run‑rate by year‑end; liquidity stands at $395M with cash of $108.6M, no borrowings, and $81.8M remaining on the buyback authorization.Metallus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.16B | 1.08B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.28B |
| Gross Profit | 100.20M | 95.10M | 97.70M | 186.50M | 126.70M | 220.00M |
| EBITDA | 68.40M | 60.30M | 58.70M | 153.30M | 156.00M | 246.00M |
| Net Income | 8.10M | -1.20M | 1.30M | 69.40M | 65.10M | 171.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.14B | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.18B | 1.08B | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 108.60M | 156.70M | 240.70M | 280.60M | 257.20M | 259.60M |
| Total Debt | 14.70M | 14.90M | 17.10M | 24.60M | 32.90M | 59.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 451.00M | 454.20M | 426.20M | 443.70M | 395.50M | 494.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 692.30M | 686.00M | 690.50M | 731.60M | 686.50M | 664.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -97.60M | -93.00M | -24.00M | 73.70M | 107.40M | 184.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.00M | 16.00M | 40.30M | 125.30M | 134.50M | 196.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.30M | -75.20M | -10.80M | -49.90M | -21.70M | -4.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.70M | -25.20M | -68.90M | -51.90M | -114.60M | -35.30M |
Metallus Technical Analysis
Negative
19.29
Price Trends
20.08
Negative
19.60
Negative
18.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.29
Negative
44.62
Neutral
39.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTUS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.33, below the 50-day MA of 20.08, and above the 200-day MA of 18.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTUS.
Metallus Risk Analysis
Metallus disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metallus reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Metallus Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $297.24M | 10.73 | 18.07% | 0.39% | 61.80% | 214.07% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $266.34M | 40.95 | 33.51% | 4.38% | -87.62% | -93.01% | |
56 Neutral | $792.10M | 100.58 | 1.17% | 3.74% | 16.12% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $132.89M | -31.38 | -5.25% | 1.54% | -34.20% | -59.08% | |
49 Neutral | $1.70B | 95.23 | 1.52% | 1.92% | 11.33% | -92.60% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MTUS
Metallus
19.11
2.70
16.45%
FRD
Friedman Industries
41.21
19.31
88.16%
ACNT
Ascent Industries
14.75
1.71
13.11%
MSB
Mesabi Shs
20.30
-9.72
-32.37%
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
33.33
0.25
0.75%
Metallus Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Metallus Announces CEO Retirement and Succession Plan
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Metallus announced that Chief Executive Officer and director Michael S. Williams will retire from both roles effective December 31, 2026, and then remain with the company as a special advisor to the CEO and board through June 3...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Metallus Reports Strong Q2 2026 Results and Outlook
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Metallus reported second-quarter 2026 results showing net sales of $341.0 million, up 11% sequentially and 12% year on year, with net income rising to $8.9 million and adjusted EBITDA to $29.0 million. Shipments increased 6% seq...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Metallus Secures New Long-Term $300 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Metallus Inc. and certain domestic subsidiaries executed a Fifth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement that replaces a prior secured facility with a $300 million asset-based revolving credit line, including sublimits for letters ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.