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MTN Group
(OTC:MTNOY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(35.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/25/26
MTNOY scores moderately: improving financial performance and a positive earnings narrative (reaffirmed guidance, strong growth, cash generation and shareholder returns) are offset by weak technical momentum and balance-sheet/operating risks (leverage, fintech disruptions, and Nigeria cost pressure). Valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive, providing limited support.
Positive Factors
Data-led growth
Strong subscriber expansion and sustained data usage support recurring revenue growth. Data is now about half of service revenue, strengthening MTN’s exposure to structural smartphone adoption and mobile broadband demand.
Negative Factors
Higher post-IHS leverage
The IHS transaction increases debt and funding requirements, reducing financial flexibility if operating performance weakens. Higher leverage may constrain investment or shareholder returns and increases exposure to refinancing, currency and interest-rate risks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Data-led growth
Strong subscriber expansion and sustained data usage support recurring revenue growth. Data is now about half of service revenue, strengthening MTN’s exposure to structural smartphone adoption and mobile broadband demand.
Read all positive factors
MTN Group (MTNOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.87B
Dividend Yield2.39%
Average Volume (3M)9.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.4
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth23.28%
EPS Growth156.31%
CountryUS
Employees21,975
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.52
Shares Outstanding1,833,678,800
10 Day Avg. Volume24,125
30 Day Avg. Volume9,496
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)2.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio7.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.85B
MTN Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MTN Group Limited, along with its various affiliates, is a prominent player in the mobile telecommunications industry. The company offers a broad spectrum of services, encompassing mobile data, voice communication, text messaging, and the sale of ...
How the Company Makes Money
MTN makes money mainly by selling telecommunications and digital services to subscribers and businesses across its operating markets. Key revenue streams include: (1) Mobile services (consumer): Recurring and usage-based revenue from voice calls a...
MTN Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: strong, broad-based service revenue growth (17.5% CC), notable margin expansion, high EPS and free cash flow growth, and robust fintech transaction volumes. Several material but largely identifiable and (management views as) temporary headwinds were disclosed — chiefly fintech revenue being depressed by non-operational items (Uganda shutdown, Ghana float change and Nigeria airtime suspension), higher energy/diesel costs in Nigeria, an Irancell impairment and FX/tax volatility. Management gave clear remediation paths (rebuilding airtime advance capacity in Nigeria, new fintech platform/MVP, cost and CapEx discipline) and reiterated medium-term guidance. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights and many of the challenges are framed as transitory or manageable.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Service revenue growth of 17.5% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by data growth; subscribers reached ~318 million (≈+7%) and active data usage and data traffic surged (14,338 PB).
Negative Updates
Fintech Reported Revenue Below Guidance
Reported fintech service revenue growth of 13.3% missed guidance due to three non-operational impacts (Uganda election shutdown, Ghana float reduction, suspension of airtime advance in Nigeria); management estimates normalized fintech growth closer to 19.3% when these items are stripped out.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Service revenue growth of 17.5% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by data growth; subscribers reached ~318 million (≈+7%) and active data usage and data traffic surged (14,338 PB).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its medium‑term (3–5 year) guidance while flagging that fintech will be out of FY guidance due to three non‑operating impacts (election shutdown, Ghana float change, Nigeria airtime suspension); fintech H1 service‑revenue growth was 13.3% (≈19.3% ex impacts), transaction value ~$330.5bn (+~1/3), MAUs ~71m and advanced services +32%. Key metrics underpinning the guidance: group subscribers ~318m (+~7%), service revenue CC +17.5%, data now ≈50% of service revenue and +29.2% (14,338 PB data traffic), adjusted HEPS +21.3%, RoCE 31.5% (from 27.1%), equity free cash flow +32.7% (cash upstreaming ZAR13.9bn), H1 CapEx intensity 16.6% with FY target 15–18%, group leverage 0.3x (pro‑forma with IHS ~0.8x), ZAR6bn buyback program (to 2028) and a 40–60% shareholder payout range of equity free cash flow; Nigeria EBITDA is expected toward the lower end (~53%) given higher energy costs.MTN Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 229.65B | 209.96B | 188.00B | 221.30B | 207.00B | 181.65B |
| Gross Profit | 114.79B | 99.96B | 131.32B | 142.81B | 150.81B | 133.79B |
| EBITDA | 121.83B | 108.73B | 49.99B | 72.99B | 89.82B | 76.59B |
| Net Income | 17.36B | 18.77B | -9.59B | 4.09B | 19.04B | 13.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 472.98B | 498.22B | 430.96B | 434.71B | 391.88B | 365.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.60B | 51.44B | 99.32B | 90.33B | 87.67B | 83.17B |
| Total Debt | 143.43B | 146.58B | 155.74B | 148.45B | 137.84B | 128.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 319.87B | 328.66B | 292.51B | 284.53B | 269.54B | 250.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 129.54B | 144.85B | 123.44B | 139.21B | 116.60B | 111.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.46B | 41.74B | 15.14B | 17.26B | 22.31B | 32.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.68B | 72.19B | 46.82B | 64.06B | 68.12B | 67.29B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.98B | -38.94B | -33.34B | -52.26B | -43.44B | -30.95B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -31.49B | -21.97B | -16.20B | -9.48B | -17.42B | -26.18B |
MTN Group Technical Analysis
Positive
9.23
Price Trends
12.92
Negative
12.92
Negative
11.86
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
52.32
Neutral
80.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTNOY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.00, below the 50-day MA of 12.92, and below the 200-day MA of 11.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTNOY.
MTN Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $4.09B | 94.42 | 4.15% | 12.73% | 14.60% | -94.13% | |
69 Neutral | $4.43B | 10.89 | 7.05% | 4.32% | 16.11% | 2.15% | |
68 Neutral | $15.89B | 23.83 | 21.02% | 5.80% | 29.10% | -29.84% | |
67 Neutral | $70.50B | 12.97 | 21.99% | 2.58% | 13.40% | 75.68% | |
63 Neutral | $21.87B | 20.38 | 13.01% | 2.39% | 23.28% | 156.31% | |
63 Neutral | $39.50B | -74.24 | -0.79% | 3.18% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MTNOY
MTN Group
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4.66
59.59%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.