Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Moderna

(NASDAQ:MRNA)

43Neutral

Moderna's stock performance is challenged by severe operational losses and negative cash flow trends. The bearish technical indicators and poor valuation further amplify concerns. Despite progress in cost reduction and market expansion, significant revenue declines and lengthy regulatory processes underscore the risks, resulting in a low overall score.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Operating expenses came in sharply below expectations, underscoring tighter spend discipline.

Cost Reduction

Moderna announced a new initiative to reduce GAAP costs by $1.4-$1.7B by 2027.

Financial Guidance

Moderna's FY Guidance Range Of $1.5-$2.5B Is Maintained.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

Technical problems with developing mRNA therapeutics.

Regulatory Risks

Moderna faces regulatory risk with three late-stage respiratory vaccine submissions under review by the FDA.

Vaccine Sales

Moderna is suffering from its plummeting Covid-19 vaccine sales, and its pipeline is only likely to generate significant sales in 2027.

Moderna (MRNA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.86B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)9.69M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.31

Revenue Growth-38.25%

EPS Growth44.29%

CountryUS

Employees5,800

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength38

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-2.52

Shares Outstanding386,741,820

10 Day Avg. Volume10,979,533

30 Day Avg. Volume9,686,213

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.46

Price to Book (P/B)0.93

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-2.33

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.12

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.68

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$46.29

Price Target Upside95.73% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering19

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionModerna, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) technology-based vaccines and therapeutics. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna is at the forefront of mRNA research and has a diverse portfolio that includes vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer immunotherapies, and rare diseases. The company's most notable product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which has been pivotal in global vaccination efforts.

How the Company Makes MoneyModerna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based vaccines, particularly its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been a major source of income since its emergency use authorization and subsequent approvals worldwide. The company also earns revenues through collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, enabling it to advance its research and development initiatives. Additionally, Moderna receives funding from governmental and non-governmental organizations for the development of vaccines and therapeutics. These revenue streams are supplemented by potential future earnings from newly developed products as they receive regulatory approval and enter the market.

Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Sales by Geography

Product Sales by Geography
Breaks down sales across different regions, revealing where Moderna is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local market dynamics and healthcare policies.

Chart InsightsModerna's product sales have experienced significant volatility across geographies, with a notable decline in Europe and the Rest of World regions in recent quarters. The U.S. market showed a temporary rebound in late 2024 but remains inconsistent. The earnings call highlights a strategic focus on cost reduction and market expansion, yet the company faces challenges with declining revenues and a net loss. Despite these hurdles, Moderna's strong cash position and expansion in oncology and international vaccine markets suggest a potential for long-term growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The income statement shows operational losses and a sharp drop in revenue to $3.16 billion. Although there is a strong equity base, negative cash flow trends highlight financial instability risks.

Income Statement

Neutral

Moderna's income statement shows a significant decline in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with revenue dropping from $19.26 billion to $3.16 billion. Both EBIT and net income have turned negative, indicating substantial operational losses. The gross profit margin has also decreased sharply. These trends suggest substantial challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with stockholders' equity consistently making up a large portion of total assets. However, the recent increase in total liabilities and the decrease in total assets since 2021 suggest a weakening financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, and the company has maintained a positive net cash position, reducing immediate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Negative

Moderna's cash flow statement shows a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and declining free cash flow. The free cash flow has deteriorated from a strong positive in 2022 to a negative in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio reflect operational inefficiencies and cash management challenges.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.16B	3.24B	6.85B	19.26B	17.74B	274.49M
	Gross Profit
1.66B	1.77B	2.15B	13.85B	15.12B	266.56M
	EBIT
-3.73B	-3.94B	-4.24B	9.42B	13.30B	-763.14M
	EBITDA
-3.19B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-732.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-3.36B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.62B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
	Total Assets
12.70B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
	Total Debt
745.00M	747.00M	1.24B	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-878.00M	-1.18B	-1.66B	-3.21B	-6.85B	-2.62B
	Total Liabilities
2.64B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
	Stockholders Equity
10.07B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-4.02B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
	Operating Cash Flow
-3.05B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
	Investing Cash Flow
2.56B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
	Financing Cash Flow
46.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price23.65

Price Trends

50DMA

28.64

Negative

100DMA

32.80

Negative

200DMA

47.47

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.08

Positive

RSI

37.94

Neutral

STOCH

17.67

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.95, below the 50-day MA of 28.64, and below the 200-day MA of 47.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Risk Analysis

Moderna disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Moderna Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMAB	81 Outperform	$11.96B	11.03	22.69%	―	25.11%	46.46%
EXEL	80 Outperform	$12.18B	20.99	30.22%	―	24.49%	244.87%
BMRN	77 Outperform	$11.26B	21.62	9.64%	―	17.99%	152.10%
UTHR	75 Outperform	$13.52B	12.13	19.94%	―	19.85%	21.16%
INCY	71 Outperform	$11.84B	194.18	0.47%	―	17.13%	-88.78%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.04B	3.15	-44.58%	2.85%	16.08%	-0.27%
MRNA	43 Neutral	$9.86B	―	-29.34%	―	-38.25%	44.29%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MRNA

Moderna

23.65

-109.03

-82.18%

BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceutical

58.27

-18.70

-24.30%

EXEL

Exelixis

46.26

25.03

117.90%

INCY

Incyte

62.76

5.90

10.38%

UTHR

United Therapeutics

303.92

31.70

11.64%

GMAB

Genmab

19.65

-10.00

-33.73%

Moderna Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -17.13%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Moderna has made significant progress in cost reduction and market expansion, particularly in the oncology and international vaccine markets. However, the company still faces challenges with declining revenues, significant net losses, and extended regulatory review timelines for key products.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Cost Reduction Achievements

Moderna achieved a 19% reduction in combined R&D, SG&A, and cost of sales compared to Q1 2024. This marks the third consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year declines in these expenses.

Expansion of Commercial Markets

Moderna expanded its commercial reach by receiving approvals for its mRESVIA vaccine in Australia, Taiwan, the UK, and Switzerland, in addition to previous approvals in the US, EU, and Canada.

Oncology Portfolio Expansion

Moderna announced the expansion of its oncology portfolio with the addition of the Checkpoint medicine program, showing early but encouraging data.

Strong Cash Position

Moderna ended Q1 2025 with $8.4 billion in cash and investments, maintaining a strong financial position despite a net loss for the quarter.

Negative Updates

Significant Revenue Decline

Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $108 million, reflecting a 35% decrease year-over-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of the respiratory vaccines and lower vaccination rates.

Net Loss for the Quarter

Moderna reported a net loss of $1 billion for Q1 2025, an improvement from a $1.2 billion loss in Q1 2024, but still a significant negative financial result.

COVID Vaccine Sales Decline

Net product sales were $86 million, primarily driven by COVID vaccine sales. This was a decline from the previous year due to the transition of COVID into routine seasonal vaccination patterns.

Extended Review Timeline for Flu COVID Combination Vaccine

The FDA now requires flu vaccine efficacy data to support the application for the flu COVID combination vaccine, extending the review timeline into 2026.

Company Guidance

During the Moderna first quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided detailed guidance on various financial and operational metrics. For Q1 2025, Moderna reported revenues of $0.1 billion with a net loss of $1 billion, aligning with their expectations due to the seasonal nature of their respiratory vaccine business. They ended the quarter with $8.4 billion in cash and investments. Moderna achieved a 19% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A expenses compared to Q1 2024. Net product sales were $86 million, mainly from COVID vaccine sales, with the U.S. contributing about one-third of these sales. The company expects total revenue for 2025 to range between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, with projected cost of sales at approximately $1.2 billion. R&D expenses are anticipated to be $4.1 billion for the year, while SG&A expenses are expected to be around $1.1 billion. Looking ahead, Moderna plans to drive $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion in cost reductions by 2027, aiming for a cash cost of $4.2 billion that year. The company continues to focus on expanding its product portfolio, with advancements in its oncology pipeline and ongoing late-stage trials for several vaccines.

Moderna Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Positive

Jan 13, 2025

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.