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Motorcar Parts Of America (MPAA) AI Stock Analysis

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MPAA

Motorcar Parts Of America

(NASDAQ:MPAA)

Select Model
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:$10.50â–²(3.40% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/16/26

MPAA scores below average primarily due to inconsistent profitability and a recent deterioration in TTM cash generation, despite improving leverage. Technicals also reflect a clear downtrend with weak momentum. Offsetting these negatives, the earnings call provides support via reaffirmed growth and profit guidance plus stated upside potential and solid liquidity/leverage, but execution and working-capital risks remain key near-term watch items.

Positive Factors
Reaffirmed growth and profitability outlookReaffirmed growth guidance indicates management expects new business commitments and operational initiatives to translate into higher sales and operating income. If execution holds, the forecast supports improving scale, stronger earnings capacity, and a clearer foundation for compounding over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Unstable profitability and recent revenue declineInconsistent earnings and the latest revenue contraction weaken confidence in the durability of MPAA’s profit engine. Volatile bottom-line performance can limit internal funding, complicate forecasting, and make it harder for investors to assess whether margin improvement will persist through changing demand.

Motorcar Parts Of America Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by Product LineShows how revenue is split across the company’s product lines, revealing which parts of the business drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on a single product or line raises concentration risk and makes results sensitive to vehicle production cycles, supply disruptions, or pricing pressure, while growth or a shift toward higher‑margin lines indicates stronger earnings potential. For Motorcar Parts Of America, tracking OEM vs. aftermarket exposure and replacement‑frequency products helps assess sustainability of sales and margins.

0.00%25.00%50.00%75.00%100.00%Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Brake Related Products are the clear growth engine—accelerating steadily and spiking most recently, aligning with management’s emphasis on brake wins and underpinning FY27 guidance—while Rotating Electrical remains a stable, low‑growth backbone. Wheel Hub revenue’s collapse to zero by Mar‑2026 is a material shift (lost product/customer or deliberate exit) that concentrates revenue risk in brakes and rotating lines; Other remains immaterial. Monitor shipment cadence, customer inventory drawdowns and A/R trends closely, since guidance depends on a successful second‑half ramp and timely cash conversion.

Data provided by:The Fly

Motorcar Parts Of America (MPAA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%MPAA-21.03%SPY+10.42%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$192.27M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
112.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-46.5
Beta (1Y)
1.48
Revenue Growth
-0.82%
EPS Growth
-353.36%
Country
US
Employees
5,600
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Auto - Parts

Motorcar Parts Of America Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) is a company dedicated to the production, reconditioning, and supply of essential aftermarket components for a diverse range of applications, including heavy-duty vehicles, industrial machinery, marine vessels,...

How the Company Makes Money

MPAA makes money by selling automotive replacement parts (and related programs/services tied to those parts) through two primary channels: (1) the automotive aftermarket and (2) select OEM relationships. The largest driver is generally the aftermarke...

Motorcar Parts Of America Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 09, 2026(Q1-2027)|% Change Since:-25.50%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2019
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a cautiously optimistic outlook. Management emphasized strategic growth drivers (Centric brake brand acquisition, heavy duty relocation to Mexico, expanding SKU coverage) and reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance with meaningful upside potential (> $100M additional annualized sales and > $900M expected by year‑end). Liquidity and leverage metrics are healthy (cash + availability ~$112M, net bank debt/EBITDA ~1.26x). Near‑term challenges include Q1 timing‑related lower sales, inventory ramp leading to $11.3M operating cash use, FX headwinds (~$3.5M), and the presence of noncash/one‑time items that depressed reported gross margin (16.2% vs 18% prior year). On balance, the strategic initiatives, guidance reaffirmation, low leverage, and sizable upside potential outweigh the transitory execution and timing headwinds.

Positive Updates

Q1 Net Sales and Order Timing
Net sales for fiscal Q1 (ended 06/30/2026) were $168.0 million; management attributes the quarter's sales performance to timing of orders and expects sales momentum to increase as the year progresses.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Gross Margin Pressure and FX Impact
Reported gross margin declined to 16.2% from 18.0% a year ago. Gross margin was negatively impacted by noncash charges (2.4%), one‑time items (1.6%), and unfavorable foreign exchange of ~2% (approximately $3.5M) related to weakening of the U.S. dollar versus the Mexican peso.

Company Guidance

Motorcar Parts reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance (year ending March 31, 2027) calling for net sales of $780 million to $800 million (up 7.5% to 10.2% year‑over‑year), operating income of $86 million to $91 million (12.3% to 18.8% YoY growth), depreciation & amortization of roughly $9 million, and EBITDA of $95 million to $100 million; guidance assumes new business commitments that are expected to ramp in the second half of the year, excludes certain nonrecurring items (including tariff pass‑through reductions and nonrecurring core revenue), and does not include management’s expectation to add more than $100 million of additional annualized net sales by the end of fiscal 2027 (which would raise annualized net sales to more than $900 million).

Motorcar Parts Of America Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Revenue improved over 2022–2025 but slipped in the TTM period (-2.6%), profitability has been inconsistent with net income swinging between losses and a brief profit, and the latest TTM turned slightly negative on operating cash flow and free cash flow. The balance sheet is comparatively stronger with materially improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.43 TTM), but volatile/negative ROE underscores unstable earnings quality.

Income Statement

46Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

39Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue769.46M789.81M757.35M717.68M683.07M650.31M
Gross Profit153.16M159.90M153.83M132.55M113.96M117.86M
EBITDA56.26M76.75M50.26M58.59M48.89M41.59M
Net Income-4.07M12.39M-19.47M-49.24M-4.21M7.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.01B1.02B957.64M1.01B1.03B1.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments21.40M16.68M11.31M15.81M13.61M25.22M
Total Debt228.70M199.63M201.28M239.34M277.22M262.71M
Total Liabilities757.03M753.43M699.94M726.89M708.09M700.43M
Stockholders Equity252.99M266.01M257.70M285.11M320.48M315.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.92M22.85M40.90M38.17M-25.95M-52.41M
Operating Cash Flow-2.17M19.16M45.48M39.17M-21.75M-44.86M
Investing Cash Flow-7.95M-3.59M-4.47M-479.00K-4.19M-7.94M
Financing Cash Flow16.62M-10.98M-44.66M-36.44M14.31M60.22M

Motorcar Parts Of America Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price10.15

Price Trends

50DMA10.69Negative
100DMA12.19Negative
200DMA11.76Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.10Negative
RSI43.29Neutral
STOCH43.91Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPAA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.30, below the 50-day MA of 10.69, and below the 200-day MA of 11.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MPAA.

Motorcar Parts Of America Risk Analysis

Motorcar Parts Of America disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Motorcar Parts Of America reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Macro & Political - Risks related to catastrophic events or geopolitical conditions that may disrupt the company’s business

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Motorcar Parts Of America Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MPAA against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CAASCAAS73Outperform$129.43M2.1613.77%―17.64%42.96%
LEALEA69Neutral$5.72B9.9411.52%2.70%3.52%40.59%
STRTSTRT65Neutral$258.46M14.427.09%―-0.73%-28.01%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
MPAAMPAA48Neutral$200.31M-46.50-1.57%―-0.82%-353.36%
THRMTHRM45Neutral$1.63B99.531.25%―8.79%-70.33%
SRISRI44Neutral$163.44M-1.09-80.52%―-19.58%-280.26%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%40%MPAACAASLEASRISTRTTHRMDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MPAA and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MPAAMotorcar Parts Of America10.15-7.22-41.57%
CAASChina Automotive4.13-0.02-0.48%
LEALear Corp.114.106.686.22%
SRIStoneridge4.78-1.39-22.53%
STRTStrattec Security60.43-6.68-9.95%
THRMGentherm Inc29.63-4.31-12.70%

Motorcar Parts Of America Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Shareholders Back Governance, Auditor and Incentive Plan Changes

Positive
Sep 16, 2026

Motorcar Parts of America held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on September 10, 2026, where investors voted on director elections, auditor ratification, executive compensation and an amendment to the company’s incentive award plan. All direc...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Motorcar Parts Of America Extends CEO Employment Agreement

Positive
Jul 2, 2026

On June 26, 2026, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. amended the long-standing employment agreement of Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Selwyn Joffe, extending its term from July 1, 2027 to July 1, 2029. The amendment, approved by the Hum...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2026