Maximus AI Stock Analysis
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Maximus (MMS) AI Stock Analysis
Maximus
(NYSE:MMS)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improved profitability, strong free cash flow quality, and improved leverage trends) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~2.1% dividend yield). Technicals are supportive but appear somewhat stretched, while the latest earnings call introduced near-term headwinds (EPS guidance cut tied to the VA incentive pause and weak book-to-bill) that temper the overall rating.
Maximus Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Maximus (MMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.42B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.97%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 626.63K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 9.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.26
- Revenue Growth
- -3.32%
- EPS Growth
- 24.98%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 37,200
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Specialty Business Services
Maximus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maximus, Inc. specializes in delivering business process services (BPS) tailored for governmental health and human welfare initiatives. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and International S...
How the Company Makes Money
Maximus makes money primarily by delivering services to government agencies under contracted arrangements. Its core revenue stream is service revenue earned from administering and operating government programs—such as eligibility and enrollment proce...
Maximus Earnings Call Summary
The call presents a generally constructive operational and strategic picture — Q3 revenue was in line with expectations, margins improved year-over-year, a large $50.4B pipeline and $1.25B of signed awards support medium/long-term growth, AI adoption is delivering measurable margin benefits, and collections momentum has begun to relieve working capital stress. However, notable near-term headwinds include a customer-directed pause of VA MDE incentives that reduced FY26 EPS guidance by ~$0.35, elevated DSO and a Q3 free cash flow outflow, a slowed procurement environment with a trailing book-to-bill of ~0.5x, and modest profitability in Outside the U.S. Taken together, the company appears to be navigating temporary timing and contract-driven challenges while maintaining margin progress, a sizable pipeline, disciplined capital allocation, and strategic investments that support growth into FY2027.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $5.20–$5.35 billion (bias toward the low end) and issued revised adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $7.90–$8.20 (midpoint $8.05, down $0.35 from the prior $8.40), which corresponds to a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of ~13.7% and implies Q4 adjusted diluted EPS at the midpoint of $1.91 (Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin roughly ~13%); free cash flow is now expected to be $425–$475 million, interest expense ~ $88 million, and the full‑year tax rate 24–24.5%; segment assumptions include U.S. Federal Services operating margin 16.5–17.0% for the year (Q4 14.5–15.0%), U.S. Services 9.5–10.0% (includes a $6.9M noncash charge), and Outside the U.S. breakeven (implying a profitable Q4); liquidity and balance sheet metrics: Q3 total debt $1.65B (Term Loan B raised $325M), consolidated net leverage 2.0x (target 2x–3x), Q3 DSO was 98 days but expected to finish the year below 70 days ( ~$245M collected since June 30), Q3 cash used in operations was $(125)M and Q3 free cash flow $(137)M; share activity: repurchased ~0.75M shares for $50M in Q3, $400M authorization remains available, and ~8.3M shares (~14% of beginning outstanding) repurchased since FY2025.
Maximus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are solid: profitability has meaningfully improved with healthy TTM margins (gross ~24%, net ~7%), and free cash flow remains consistently positive with strong conversion (~90% of net income). Balance sheet trends improved with recent deleveraging and stronger ROE (~22% TTM), though leverage is still notable (debt-to-equity near ~1) and the key weakness is a TTM revenue decline.
Income Statement
73PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
74Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.25B | 5.43B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 4.63B | 4.25B |
| Gross Profit | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.16B | 934.02M | 849.35M | 902.62M |
| EBITDA | 715.71M | 662.64M | 614.48M | 443.75M | 455.86M | 489.14M |
| Net Income | 370.89M | 319.03M | 306.91M | 161.79M | 203.83M | 291.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.37B | 4.07B | 4.13B | 3.99B | 3.99B | 4.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.95M | 260.46M | 235.76M | 122.09M | 136.79M | 156.57M |
| Total Debt | 1.73B | 1.44B | 1.28B | 1.43B | 1.51B | 1.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.63B | 2.40B | 2.29B | 2.32B | 2.44B | 2.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.84B | 1.67B | 1.55B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 433.23M | 366.16M | 401.07M | 223.65M | 233.69M | 480.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 469.51M | 429.37M | 515.26M | 314.34M | 289.84M | 517.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.56M | -60.26M | -129.10M | -80.96M | -54.01M | -1.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -403.16M | -343.88M | -275.65M | -250.80M | -248.27M | 1.39B |
Maximus Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MMS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.97, above the 50-day MA of 59.18, and above the 200-day MA of 63.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MMS.
Maximus Risk Analysis
Maximus disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maximus reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksMaximus Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- MMS76Outperform
III74Outperform
FA64Neutral
ABM63Neutral
DLHC34Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MMS | 76Outperform | $3.46B | 9.59 | 21.72% | 1.97% | -3.32% | 24.98% |
| III | 74Outperform | $291.85M | 24.93 | 12.66% | 2.87% | 4.85% | 23.95% |
| FA | 64Neutral | $3.71B | 85.35 | 3.29% | ― | 17.67% | ― |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| ABM | 63Neutral | $3.21B | 19.52 | 9.44% | 2.14% | 6.00% | 50.32% |
| DLHC | 34Underperform | $52.75M | -2.33 | -20.12% | ― | -29.52% | -564.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MMS | Maximus | 65.38 | -13.57 | -17.19% | |
| ABM | Abm Industries Incorporated | 54.28 | 12.88 | 31.11% | |
| III | Information Services Group | 6.27 | 1.22 | 24.16% | |
| DLHC | DLH Holdings Corp. | 3.51 | -2.34 | -40.00% | |
| FA | First Advantage Corporation | 21.55 | 8.42 | 64.13% |
Maximus Corporate Events
Maximus to Acquire Agile Defense in Strategic Deal
PositiveOn October 19, 2026, Maximus announced it had entered a definitive agreement to acquire Agile Defense, LLC, a privately held provider of cybersecurity, digital transformation, data analytics, and AI services to U.S. defense and national security agen...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 20, 2026