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MGP Ingredients
(NASDAQ:MGPI)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-13.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance: a sharp swing to deep losses and a major drop in operating and free cash flow, alongside worsening leverage trends. Technicals remain mixed with the stock still below key longer-term moving averages and a negative MACD despite short-term strength. Offsetting factors include a supportive dividend yield, reaffirmed 2026 guidance and cost actions from the earnings call, plus incremental balance-sheet flexibility from recent credit agreement updates and the rebrand/ticker change.
Positive Factors
Branded Spirits Growth
Branded Spirits is showing product-level growth despite a softer broader market, with Premium Plus outperforming reported Nielsen and NABCA trends. Gains across Penelope, Yellowstone and Everclear, alongside distribution expansion, support stronger brand reach and a more durable platform for future sales.
Negative Factors
Profitability and Cash Flow Deterioration
The shift from positive historical margins to a deep TTM loss, combined with sharply weaker operating and free cash flow, reduces the resources available for debt service, reinvestment and shareholder returns. Sustained underperformance could also weaken financial flexibility despite positive reported cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Branded Spirits Growth
Branded Spirits is showing product-level growth despite a softer broader market, with Premium Plus outperforming reported Nielsen and NABCA trends. Gains across Penelope, Yellowstone and Everclear, alongside distribution expansion, support stronger brand reach and a more durable platform for future sales.
Read all positive factors
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$336.84M
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)294.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth-17.95%
EPS Growth-3524.49%
CountryUS
Employees617
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.26
Shares Outstanding21,414,076
10 Day Avg. Volume266,905
30 Day Avg. Volume294,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio6.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.33Price Target Upside32.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$484.04M
MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGP Ingredients, Inc., founded in 1941 and headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, operates as a prominent manufacturer and supplier across three main business areas: distilled spirits, branded alcoholic beverages, and specialized food ingredients. The...
How the Company Makes Money
MGP Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling (1) beverage alcohol products and (2) specialty ingredient products.
1) Beverage alcohol / distilling-related revenue: The company generates revenue by distilling and selling alc...
MGP Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed mixed results: meaningful wins in Branded Spirits (notably Premium Plus growth, distribution expansion, portfolio rationalization, margin improvement and cost reductions) and operational progress in Distilling and Ingredient Solutions, but these were offset by sizeable YoY declines in consolidated revenue, profit and adjusted earnings, margin pressure in Ingredient Solutions from elevated waste disposal costs, higher leverage after the Penelope earn-out, and ongoing industry oversupply in distilling. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized execution, cost control and strategic initiatives, but near-term headwinds persist.Positive Updates
Branded Spirits Premium Plus Growth
Branded Spirits sales (ex-other products) increased ~3% YoY; Premium Plus portfolio grew 5% in the quarter, outperforming Nielsen (-3%) and NABCA (-5%); Penelope sales up 13%, Yellowstone up 54%, Everclear up 13%.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Profit Declines
Consolidated Q2 sales $124.4M, down ~15% YoY; consolidated gross profit $46.5M, down ~20% YoY; consolidated gross margin 37.4%, down ~270 basis points YoY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Branded Spirits Premium Plus Growth
Branded Spirits sales (ex-other products) increased ~3% YoY; Premium Plus portfolio grew 5% in the quarter, outperforming Nielsen (-3%) and NABCA (-5%); Penelope sales up 13%, Yellowstone up 54%, Everclear up 13%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance with net sales of $480–500M, adjusted EBITDA of $90–98M and adjusted basic EPS of $1.50–1.80 (weighted average shares ~21.4M); full‑year CapEx is expected to be ~ $20M (YTD CapEx down 66% to $6.4M), operating cash flow $50–55M and free cash flow $30–35M (both excluding the ~ $111M Penelope earn‑out paid in Q2), and an expected effective tax rate of ~23%. They expect net whiskey put‑away of $13–18M for 2026; balance sheet leverage was ~3.5x net debt at 6/30 (up from 2.1x at 3/31) and is anticipated to peak in Q3. Segment outlooks were reiterated: Branded Spirits sales down mid‑single digits with slight gross margin improvement; Distilling Solutions sales down ~35% and gross profit down ~40%; Ingredient Solutions sales of $140–150M with full‑year gross margins in the high single‑ to low double‑digit range.MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 500.01M | 536.38M | 703.63M | 836.52M | 782.36M | 626.72M |
| Gross Profit | 177.75M | 199.41M | 286.32M | 304.71M | 253.31M | 198.97M |
| EBITDA | -243.61M | -69.22M | 98.87M | 170.51M | 167.08M | 144.22M |
| Net Income | -242.01M | -107.81M | 34.66M | 107.47M | 109.46M | 91.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.06B | 1.24B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.16B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.79M | 18.46M | 25.27M | 18.39M | 47.89M | 21.57M |
| Total Debt | 377.77M | 266.61M | 339.64M | 301.86M | 245.76M | 243.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 466.95M | 519.07M | 573.24M | 543.28M | 412.57M | 397.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 590.81M | 718.44M | 834.17M | 850.49M | 746.72M | 644.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 888.00K | 76.04M | 31.10M | 28.52M | 43.61M | 40.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.44M | 121.53M | 102.28M | 83.78M | 88.94M | 88.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.75M | -45.52M | -71.56M | -159.24M | -47.81M | -182.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.80M | -83.52M | -23.80M | 45.92M | -14.76M | 94.29M |
MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.85
Price Trends
15.15
Positive
16.10
Negative
18.29
Negative
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
61.21
Neutral
80.89
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.13, above the 50-day MA of 15.15, and below the 200-day MA of 18.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MGPI.
MGP Ingredients Risk Analysis
MGP Ingredients disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGP Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $13.62B | 19.10 | 17.80% | 3.07% | -0.18% | -13.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $2.08B | -29.62 | -9.81% | ― | -3.71% | -180.44% | |
60 Neutral | $1.94B | 18.47 | 6.96% | 2.74% | 0.56% | -28.00% | |
58 Neutral | $964.07M | -14.96 | -24.25% | ― | 38.57% | 29.71% | |
47 Neutral | $336.84M | -1.40 | -35.26% | 3.05% | -17.95% | -3524.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MGPI
MGP Ingredients
15.73
-7.26
-31.58%
SAM
Boston Beer
202.28
-25.24
-11.09%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
30.13
2.91
10.71%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
10.43
-2.39
-18.61%
WEST
Westrock Coffee
9.88
4.82
95.16%
AGCC
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd. Class A
15.10
10.80
251.16%
MGP Ingredients Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
MGP Ingredients Announces Corporate Rebrand to Sempreon, Inc.
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On October 14 and 15, 2026, MGP Ingredients detailed plans to rebrand the company as Sempreon, Inc., a new identity that unifies its Branded Spirits, Distilling Solutions and Ingredient Solutions businesses under a single banner. The name change, ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MGP Ingredients Updates Credit Agreements Amid Acquisition Leverage
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
MGP Ingredients, Inc., a producer of branded and distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starches, operates in the alcoholic beverages and ingredients industry. The company has expanded its portfolio through acquisitions, including Pene...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.