MediaAlpha (MAX) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive. Management reported record third-quarter results, broadening carrier demand, rapid growth in home and renters and agent revenue, strong operating leverage, substantial share repurchases, and maintained free cash flow and double-digit growth expectations. The main negative items were the expected Under-65 Health contribution decline, normal fourth-quarter seasonality, lower shopping activity versus its earlier peak, and the fact that AI-agent shopping has not yet produced marketplace impact.

For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $355 million to $375 million, up approximately 25% year over year at the midpoint; contribution of $54 million to $57 million, up approximately 18% year over year at the midpoint; and adjusted EBITDA of $36 million to $39 million, up approximately 22% year over year at the midpoint. The Health vertical is expected to be approximately 4% of total revenue, and adjusted EBITDA guidance includes a decline in contribution from 65 Health of approximately $900 thousand year-over-year; excluding under-65 health, contribution is expected to increase 21% and adjusted EBITDA to increase by 26% year over year at the midpoint. For the full year 2026, the company continues to expect $90 million to $100 million in free cash flow, while for 2027 and beyond it expects double digit growth across all of the metrics; cash taxes are expected to be approximately 1% in 2026, in the mid single digits in 2027, and in the mid teens thereafter.