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Matson
(NYSE:MATX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$231.00
▲(9.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (healthy profitability, conservative leverage, and strong operating/free cash flow) and a notably constructive earnings call with raised full-year guidance and strong Q3 expectations led by China. Offsetting factors are the business’s cyclical volatility and only mixed near-term technical signals, while valuation is reasonable but supported by a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & capital returns
Matson’s substantial operating cash flow and history of returning capital (dividends + buybacks) reflect durable cash generation that funds maintenance capex, shareholder returns and some growth spending. Consistent OCF coverage supports resilience through cycles and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Cyclical revenue and FCF variability
Matson operates in a cyclical shipping industry where revenue, rates and free cash flow swing materially. That variability makes multi-quarter forecasting and sustainable capital return pacing challenging, increasing the risk that buybacks/dividends or growth investments will need to be curtailed in downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & capital returns
Matson’s substantial operating cash flow and history of returning capital (dividends + buybacks) reflect durable cash generation that funds maintenance capex, shareholder returns and some growth spending. Consistent OCF coverage supports resilience through cycles and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Matson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
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The Fly
The FlyMatson (MATX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.39B
Dividend Yield0.67%
Average Volume (3M)326.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-0.16%
EPS Growth0.55%
CountryUS
Employees4,170
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryMarine Shipping
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)15.05
Shares Outstanding29,903,458
10 Day Avg. Volume322,196
30 Day Avg. Volume326,407
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.14
P/FCF Ratio24.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$261.67Price Target Upside24.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)14.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.47B
Matson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Matson, Inc. specializes in providing integrated ocean transportation and logistics solutions. Its Ocean Transportation segment offers crucial ocean freight services connecting the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, alo...
How the Company Makes Money
Matson makes money primarily through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. In Ocean Transportation, it earns revenue by transporting containerized freight (and other cargo where applicable) on scheduled ocean services, charging custome...
Matson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially more positives than negatives: strong China-driven revenue and margins, sizeable YoY gains in net income and EPS, a raised outlook (notably Q3 Ocean EBIT guidance of ~+45% YoY), robust cash generation, meaningful share repurchases, and a well-funded newbuild program. Headwinds are manageable and largely temporary—SSAT weakness, modest volume declines in Hawaii and Alaska, undercollected fuel costs (low-teens millions) and a tougher Q4 comp—none of which offset the quarter's strong operational and financial performance.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Consolidated operating income increased by $45.9 million year-over-year to $158.9 million in Q2 2026; net income rose 36.6% year-over-year to $129.4 million and diluted EPS increased 46.2% year-over-year to $4.27.
Negative Updates
SSAT JV Performance Weakness
SSAT joint venture contributed $4.8 million in Q2, a year-over-year decrease of $2.5 million due to lower lift volume and higher operating expenses; management expects full-year SSAT contribution to be lower than the $32.5 million recorded in 2025.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Consolidated operating income increased by $45.9 million year-over-year to $158.9 million in Q2 2026; net income rose 36.6% year-over-year to $129.4 million and diluted EPS increased 46.2% year-over-year to $4.27.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Matson guided to a strong second half led by China: Q3 Ocean Transportation operating income is expected to be ~45% above last year’s Q3 of $147.4M (consolidated Q3 also ~45% higher), while Q4 Ocean Transportation is expected to be modestly below last year’s $136.0M (Logistics modestly above last year’s $7.7M). For full‑year 2026 the company now expects Ocean Transportation op. income > $455.6M, Logistics > $44.2M and consolidated operating income > $499.8M; it also forecasts D&A ≈ $205M (including ≈ $35M dry‑docking amortization), interest income ≈ $18M, interest expense ≈ $6M, other income ≈ $7M, an effective tax rate ≈ 21%, and dry‑docking payments ≈ $45M. CapEx guidance is maintenance/other $150–170M and vessel construction milestones/related costs ≈ $400M (Q2 milestone payments ≈ $180M; expected ≈ $50M in Q3 and ≈ $127M in Q4); cash ≈ $119M and the capital construction fund ≈ $346M (covering ~90% of remaining milestones). Management also noted under‑collected fuel costs in the low‑teens of millions to be recovered by year‑end and reiterated recent quarterly metrics: Q2 consolidated operating income $158.9M (up $45.9M YoY), net income $129.4M, diluted EPS $4.27 (up 46.2% YoY), Q2 China volume +15.2% YoY, Guam +4.4%, Hawaii -1.1%, Alaska -2.3%, SSAT Q2 contribution $4.8M, trailing‑12‑month CFO $584.1M, dividends+repurchases $307.3M, and total debt $341.3M.Matson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.46B | 3.34B | 3.42B | 3.09B | 4.34B | 3.93B |
| Gross Profit | 796.40M | 761.40M | 855.90M | 623.90M | 1.53B | 1.37B |
| EBITDA | 828.50M | 879.70M | 916.00M | 690.50M | 1.68B | 1.45B |
| Net Income | 463.80M | 444.80M | 476.40M | 297.10M | 1.06B | 927.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.71B | 4.76B | 4.60B | 4.29B | 4.33B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.30M | 141.90M | 266.80M | 134.00M | 253.70M | 287.70M |
| Total Debt | 716.40M | 727.10M | 749.00M | 725.00M | 910.70M | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.94B | 2.00B | 1.94B | 1.89B | 2.03B | 2.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.77B | 2.76B | 2.65B | 2.40B | 2.30B | 1.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 123.70M | 153.70M | 457.70M | 262.10M | 1.06B | 658.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 582.00M | 547.10M | 767.80M | 510.50M | 1.27B | 984.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.50M | -265.60M | -336.10M | -338.20M | -729.30M | -323.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -372.30M | -404.30M | -301.20M | -289.70M | -576.60M | -392.70M |
Matson Technical Analysis
Positive
210.57
Price Trends
203.40
Positive
189.15
Positive
162.14
Positive
Market Momentum
2.39
Negative
60.65
Neutral
52.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 210.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 209.36, above the 50-day MA of 203.40, and above the 200-day MA of 162.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MATX.
Matson Risk Analysis
Matson disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Matson reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Matson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $2.56B | 4.79 | 13.97% | 2.57% | 2.45% | 21.62% | |
73 Outperform | $6.39B | 14.44 | 16.94% | 0.68% | -0.16% | 0.55% | |
71 Outperform | $3.27B | 11.35 | 11.71% | 3.66% | 6.34% | 141.62% | |
67 Neutral | $7.26B | 21.20 | 10.45% | ― | 6.56% | 23.19% | |
65 Neutral | $1.74B | 5.57 | 15.97% | 2.99% | -52.60% | 11.51% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $3.23B | 34.32 | 2.48% | 7.99% | -29.06% | -95.84% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MATX
Matson
217.30
113.10
108.53%
CMRE
Costamare
14.64
3.72
34.09%
DAC
Danaos
141.92
51.56
57.06%
KEX
Kirby
138.62
42.12
43.65%
SBLK
Star Bulk Carriers
29.05
10.89
59.94%
ZIM
ZIM
28.14
12.80
83.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.