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Metalpha Technology Holding (MATH) AI Stock Analysis

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MATH

Metalpha Technology Holding

(NASDAQ:MATH)

Select Model
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:$1.00â–²(1.11% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/15/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: a conservative balance sheet and strong FY2026 cash flow are positives, but severe operating instability (including FY2026 revenue dropping to zero and large operating losses) materially elevates risk. Technicals are mildly supportive but not strong enough to offset fundamentals, and valuation (P/E 25.44 with no dividend yield provided) is not especially attractive given the volatility.

Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheetLow leverage and materially higher equity provide a durable financial cushion while the company navigates digital-asset market volatility. A conservative capital structure can reduce solvency pressure, preserve funding flexibility, and support continued investment even when operating results fluctuate.
Negative Factors
FY2026 operating deteriorationA period with zero reported revenue and deeply negative gross and operating profit raises serious questions about the continuity of the core business model. This weak operating base can undermine earnings visibility, reduce recurring client economics, and make future performance highly dependent on a sharp recovery.

Metalpha Technology Holding (MATH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%MATH-68.70%SPY+14.28%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$44.41M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
95.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
24.9
Beta (1Y)
0.93
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
-92.75%
Country
US
Employees
31
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets

Metalpha Technology Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong. It offers digital asset-based wealth management services; executes cryptocurrency-related transactions, including the issuance of d...

How the Company Makes Money

Metalpha primarily makes money by earning fees and trading-related income connected to digital-asset derivatives and structured products. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) structured product and derivatives facilitation: income from arrangin...

Metalpha Technology Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (low leverage and growing equity) and a sharp improvement in FY2026 operating/free cash flow support the score. However, operating performance is highly unstable: profitability has swung dramatically across years and FY2026 deteriorated with revenue dropping to zero and deep operating losses, raising sustainability and earnings-quality risk.

Income Statement

28Negative

Balance Sheet

73Positive

Cash Flow

60Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Sep 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue0044.57M16.76M5.69M122.71K
Gross Profit-21.99M-21.99M21.30M5.63M2.02M46.93K
EBITDA-35.53M-35.53M16.13M-3.59M-11.59M-9.13M
Net Income1.28M1.28M15.89M-3.68M-20.56M-14.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets485.57M485.57M246.77M174.72M56.08M24.34M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments465.14M465.14M20.70M48.08M9.47M5.29M
Total Debt536.56K536.56K212.69K5.04M133.28K368.75K
Total Liabilities432.58M432.58M210.21M157.87M47.48M10.14M
Stockholders Equity52.99M52.99M36.56M16.85M8.60M12.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow75.73M75.73M24.68K-11.60M-1.14M-5.15M
Operating Cash Flow75.73M75.73M71.99K-11.60M-1.14M-4.86M
Investing Cash Flow144.50K144.50K-23.31K32.68K-20.42K422.89K
Financing Cash Flow11.79M11.79M2.11M9.73M2.60M8.98M

Metalpha Technology Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.99

Price Trends

50DMA1.01Negative
100DMA0.95Negative
200DMA1.07Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.01Positive
RSI40.20Neutral
STOCH30.97Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.02, below the 50-day MA of 1.01, and below the 200-day MA of 1.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MATH.

Metalpha Technology Holding Risk Analysis

Metalpha Technology Holding disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metalpha Technology Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Metalpha Technology Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

MATH against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
MATHMATH55Neutral$44.01M24.932.91%――-92.75%
ASLEASLE51Neutral$247.22M-13.77-4.47%―-4.44%-400.46%
FLYXFLYX46Neutral$113.31M-1.367.78%―16.15%32.19%
SRFMSRFM42Neutral$100.07M-0.42211.95%―9.12%59.42%
SOARSOAR41Neutral$10.83M-0.17-270.63%―-67.20%―

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%MATHASLEFLYXSOARSRFMDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MATH and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MATHMetalpha Technology Holding Limited0.99-1.83-64.93%
ASLEAersale Corporation5.37-0.57-9.60%
FLYXFlyexclusive, Inc.1.09-2.12-66.04%
SOARSoar Ai, Inc. Class A0.20-1.05-84.07%
SRFMSurf Air Mobility, Inc.0.70-1.99-73.83%

Metalpha Technology Holding Corporate Events

Metalpha Nearly Doubles Total Assets in FY2026 as It Files Latest Annual Report

Aug 6, 2026

Metalpha Technology Holding reported audited financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, highlighting resilience amid volatile digital asset markets. The company generated $37.1 million in revenue, remained consistently profitable and...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 15, 2026