Marriott International (MAR) AI Stock Analysis

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Marriott International

(NASDAQ:MAR)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:

$282.00

▲(6.60%Upside)

Marriott International's overall score reflects strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability. However, negative equity and high leverage pose significant risks. The technical analysis indicates mixed momentum with potential overbought conditions. While the company's strategic initiatives and global performance are promising, valuation concerns and region-specific challenges, especially in Greater China and the U.S., balance the growth prospects.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Strategy

The acquisition of citizenM is seen as a complementary brand to MAR's select-service portfolio, offering exposure to multiple markets and faster growth opportunities.

Financial Performance

Marriott reported 1Q25 EBITDA of $1,217M, ahead of expectations and above company outlook, driven by strong RevPAR and core fees.

International Market Performance

Marriott's international RevPAR materially outperformed expectations, mostly from strength in Asia, indicating robust international market performance.

Negative Factors

Domestic Demand Weakness

U.S./Canada demand softened, largely related to weakness in government and select-service bookings.

Guidance Concerns

The only slight disappointment is a soft Q2 guide, with EBITDA 2% behind the street.

Guidance Downgrade

FY RevPAR guidance was downgraded from 2-4% to 1.5-3.5%, indicating lower expected growth.

Marriott International (MAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$72.88B

Dividend Yield0.95%

Average Volume (3M)1.71M

Price to Earnings (P/E)30.3

Beta (1Y)1.09

Revenue Growth5.45%

EPS Growth-9.50%

CountryUS

Employees418,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength78

IndustryTravel Lodging

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.32

Shares Outstanding273,896,120

10 Day Avg. Volume1,470,629

30 Day Avg. Volume1,714,005

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio5.26

Price to Book (P/B)-22.66

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio38.38

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.93

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.29

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$279.67

Price Target Upside5.72% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering16

Marriott International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMarriott International, Inc. is a leading global lodging company with a wide array of properties and brands, ranging from luxury to mid-scale accommodations. It operates and franchises hotels and licenses vacation ownership resorts worldwide. With a diverse portfolio that includes iconic brands such as Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, and The Ritz-Carlton, Marriott International is a key player in the hospitality sector, offering premium services and amenities to a variety of travelers.

How the Company Makes MoneyMarriott International makes money primarily through its hotel operations, which include both managed and franchised properties. The company's revenue streams include room rentals, food and beverage sales, and other related services. Marriott earns fees from franchised hotels based on a percentage of room revenues and also receives fees from managed properties based on a percentage of gross revenues. Additionally, Marriott benefits from its loyalty program, Marriott Bonvoy, which encourages repeat business and customer retention. The company also generates income through its timeshare operations under the Marriott Vacation Club brand, where it sells vacation ownership interests and provides resort management services. Strategic partnerships and agreements with credit card companies and other travel-related businesses further contribute to its revenue.

Marriott International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room

Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room
Combines occupancy and average daily rate to show overall revenue efficiency per room, offering insight into the company’s operational effectiveness and market demand.

Chart InsightsMarriott International's RevPAR has shown a strong upward trend, particularly in 2024, with a notable peak in Q2. This aligns with the company's earnings call, highlighting robust international growth, especially in APAC, and strategic moves like the citizenM acquisition. However, challenges in Greater China and softer growth in the U.S. and Canada have led to a cautious outlook, with a slight adjustment in full-year guidance. Despite these challenges, Marriott's focus on digital transformation and expansion through acquisitions suggests a commitment to long-term growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Marriott International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 7.26%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call demonstrated strong global performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly with record signings and the acquisition of citizenM. However, there were challenges noted in select markets, particularly Greater China and the U.S., leading to a cautious outlook for RevPAR growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record First Quarter Global Signings

Development activity remained robust, with record first quarter global signings, and net rooms grew 4.6% over the trailing 12 months through March.

Global RevPAR Growth

First quarter global RevPAR rose 4.1%, with ADR increasing 3% and occupancy rising 1 percentage point. APAC's first quarter RevPAR rose 11%, driven by strong ADR growth and higher demand from international guests.

Strong Performance in Group Segment

Group RevPAR rose 8% both globally and in the U.S. in the first quarter, with growth driven by ADR increases.

Marriott Bonvoy Growth

Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program had nearly 237 million members at the end of March, with member penetration reaching a record of 68% of room nights globally.

CitizenM Acquisition

Marriott announced the acquisition of citizenM, adding over 8,500 open rooms and 600 pipeline rooms to its system.

Negative Updates

RevPAR Decline in Greater China

First quarter RevPAR in Greater China declined 2%, due to the weaker macro environment and tough year-over-year comparisons.

Softer U.S. and Canada Growth

U.S. and Canada regions saw softer growth in March, particularly in the select service segment, leading to a lowering of full-year RevPAR growth guidance by 50 basis points.

Impact of U.S. Government Segment

Demand in the U.S. softened in March primarily due to a 10% year-over-year decline in U.S. government RevPAR.

Challenges with Construction Costs

Despite strong global signings, uncertainty around construction costs and the challenging financing environment in the U.S. and Europe was noted.

Company Guidance

During Marriott International's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong results, with global RevPAR increasing by 4.1%, surpassing the top end of their 3% to 4% guidance. In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR rose over 3%, driven by luxury and full-service hotels, while international RevPAR climbed nearly 6%, led by APAC's 11% growth. India and Japan saw significant RevPAR increases of 16% and 17%, respectively. CALA reported a 7% rise, and EMEA a 6% increase. Conversely, Greater China experienced a 2% decline due to a weaker macro environment. Group RevPAR was a standout, growing 8% globally. Despite some U.S. softness, particularly in select service segments, Marriott maintained steady growth, with a 4.6% net rooms increase over 12 months. The company adjusted full-year RevPAR growth guidance down by 50 basis points due to U.S. and Canada outlook but remains optimistic about the global pipeline, with Q1 signings up 35% year-over-year and 42% of pipeline rooms under construction. The acquisition of citizenM, comprising over 8,500 open rooms and 600 pipeline rooms, is expected to enhance Marriott's global portfolio. Marriott Bonvoy reached 237 million members, with record penetration of 68% of room nights globally. The company continues to invest in digital transformation, aiming to strengthen operations and unlock new revenue opportunities. Despite challenges, Marriott remains focused on long-term growth and efficiency improvements.

Marriott International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marriott International demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with robust margins. However, the negative equity and increased leverage are concerning and suggest potential financial distress. Cash flows are healthy but show a decline in growth, necessitating attention to bolster cash generation.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Marriott International has shown a robust revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase from $20.77 billion in 2022 to $25.39 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting a positive growth rate. The gross profit margin stands strong at 21.26% TTM, indicating efficient cost management, though slightly below the previous year's 21.59%. Net profit margins are healthy at 9.75% TTM, slightly improved from 9.46% in 2024, demonstrating stable profitability. The EBIT margin remains strong at 15.15%, with EBITDA margin at 16.37%, supporting steady operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity of -$3.17 billion TTM, indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but the total debt has increased from $15.24 billion in 2024 to $15.85 billion TTM, highlighting increased leverage. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting significant liabilities over assets, requiring attention to financial restructuring.

Cash Flow

Positive

Marriott International's cash flow performance is strong, with a positive free cash flow of $1.84 billion TTM, although showing a slight decline from $1.99 billion in the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating effective cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate turned negative, necessitating strategies to enhance cash generation.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
25.39B	25.10B	23.71B	20.77B	13.86B	10.57B
	Gross Profit
5.40B	5.42B	5.12B	4.56B	2.80B	1.46B
	EBIT
3.85B	3.77B	3.92B	3.53B	1.75B	246.00M
	EBITDA
4.16B	4.23B	4.22B	3.72B	1.90B	457.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.48B	2.38B	3.08B	2.36B	1.10B	-267.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
523.00M	396.00M	338.00M	507.00M	1.39B	877.00M
	Total Assets
26.65B	26.18B	25.67B	24.82B	25.55B	24.70B
	Total Debt
15.85B	15.24B	12.76B	11.10B	11.24B	11.20B
	Net Debt
15.33B	14.85B	12.42B	10.59B	9.84B	10.32B
	Total Liabilities
29.82B	29.17B	26.36B	24.25B	24.14B	24.27B
	Stockholders Equity
-3.17B	-2.99B	-682.00M	568.00M	1.41B	430.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.84B	2.00B	2.72B	2.03B	994.00M	1.50B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.62B	2.75B	3.17B	2.36B	1.18B	1.64B
	Investing Cash Flow
-782.00M	-734.00M	-465.00M	-297.00M	-187.00M	35.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.74B	-1.96B	-2.86B	-2.96B	-463.00M	-1.03B

Marriott International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price264.53

Price Trends

50DMA

242.83

Positive

100DMA

259.64

Positive

200DMA

258.44

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

6.40

Positive

RSI

58.70

Neutral

STOCH

37.54

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 264.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 260.34, above the 50-day MA of 242.83, and above the 200-day MA of 258.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAR.

Marriott International Risk Analysis

Marriott International disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott International reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

Third-party claims that we infringe the intellectual property rights of others or our failure to defend our own intellectual property rights could materially adversely affect our business. Q4, 2024

Changes in tax law, interpretations of existing tax law, or agreements or disputes with tax authorities could increase our tax costs. Q4, 2024

Marriott International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HLT	73 Outperform	$60.16B	39.92	-41.19%	0.24%	7.43%	38.52%
HTHT	72 Outperform	$10.84B	25.75	28.90%	4.35%	5.20%	-11.08%
MAR	69 Neutral	$72.88B	30.31	-144.82%	0.95%	5.45%	-9.50%
H	69 Neutral	$12.59B	17.09	22.31%	0.46%	-7.38%	19.62%
WH	67 Neutral	$6.72B	20.74	53.31%	1.78%	4.79%	48.48%
IHG	66 Neutral	$18.23B	30.63	-27.16%	1.38%	6.34%	-11.99%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.93B	11.33	2.94%	3.90%	2.68%	-25.08%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MAR

Marriott International

264.53

38.32

16.94%

HTHT

H World Group

35.49

-0.09

-0.25%

Hyatt Hotels

131.05

-13.18

-9.14%

IHG

Intercontinental Hotels Group

117.18

20.77

21.54%

HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings

250.78

54.78

27.95%

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts

85.50

18.98

28.53%

Marriott International Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Marriott International Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 13, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Marriott International held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where 13 director nominees were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the advisory resolution on the compensation of Marriott’s named executive officers, signaling continued support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAR) stock is a Buy with a $283.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott International stock, see the MAR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.