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Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQ:MAR

Marriott International (MAR) AI Stock Analysis

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MA

Marriott International

(NASDAQ:MAR)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$282.00
▲(6.60%Upside)
Marriott International's overall score reflects strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability. However, negative equity and high leverage pose significant risks. The technical analysis indicates mixed momentum with potential overbought conditions. While the company's strategic initiatives and global performance are promising, valuation concerns and region-specific challenges, especially in Greater China and the U.S., balance the growth prospects.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Strategy
The acquisition of citizenM is seen as a complementary brand to MAR's select-service portfolio, offering exposure to multiple markets and faster growth opportunities.
Financial Performance
Marriott reported 1Q25 EBITDA of $1,217M, ahead of expectations and above company outlook, driven by strong RevPAR and core fees.
International Market Performance
Marriott's international RevPAR materially outperformed expectations, mostly from strength in Asia, indicating robust international market performance.
Negative Factors
Domestic Demand Weakness
U.S./Canada demand softened, largely related to weakness in government and select-service bookings.
Guidance Concerns
The only slight disappointment is a soft Q2 guide, with EBITDA 2% behind the street.
Guidance Downgrade
FY RevPAR guidance was downgraded from 2-4% to 1.5-3.5%, indicating lower expected growth.

Marriott International (MAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Marriott International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMarriott International, Inc. is a leading global lodging company with a wide array of properties and brands, ranging from luxury to mid-scale accommodations. It operates and franchises hotels and licenses vacation ownership resorts worldwide. With a diverse portfolio that includes iconic brands such as Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, and The Ritz-Carlton, Marriott International is a key player in the hospitality sector, offering premium services and amenities to a variety of travelers.
How the Company Makes MoneyMarriott International makes money primarily through its hotel operations, which include both managed and franchised properties. The company's revenue streams include room rentals, food and beverage sales, and other related services. Marriott earns fees from franchised hotels based on a percentage of room revenues and also receives fees from managed properties based on a percentage of gross revenues. Additionally, Marriott benefits from its loyalty program, Marriott Bonvoy, which encourages repeat business and customer retention. The company also generates income through its timeshare operations under the Marriott Vacation Club brand, where it sells vacation ownership interests and provides resort management services. Strategic partnerships and agreements with credit card companies and other travel-related businesses further contribute to its revenue.

Marriott International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room
Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room
Combines occupancy and average daily rate to show overall revenue efficiency per room, offering insight into the company’s operational effectiveness and market demand.
Chart InsightsMarriott International's RevPAR has shown a strong upward trend, particularly in 2024, with a notable peak in Q2. This aligns with the company's earnings call, highlighting robust international growth, especially in APAC, and strategic moves like the citizenM acquisition. However, challenges in Greater China and softer growth in the U.S. and Canada have led to a cautious outlook, with a slight adjustment in full-year guidance. Despite these challenges, Marriott's focus on digital transformation and expansion through acquisitions suggests a commitment to long-term growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Marriott International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call demonstrated strong global performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly with record signings and the acquisition of citizenM. However, there were challenges noted in select markets, particularly Greater China and the U.S., leading to a cautious outlook for RevPAR growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Global Signings
Development activity remained robust, with record first quarter global signings, and net rooms grew 4.6% over the trailing 12 months through March.
Global RevPAR Growth
First quarter global RevPAR rose 4.1%, with ADR increasing 3% and occupancy rising 1 percentage point. APAC's first quarter RevPAR rose 11%, driven by strong ADR growth and higher demand from international guests.
Strong Performance in Group Segment
Group RevPAR rose 8% both globally and in the U.S. in the first quarter, with growth driven by ADR increases.
Marriott Bonvoy Growth
Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program had nearly 237 million members at the end of March, with member penetration reaching a record of 68% of room nights globally.
CitizenM Acquisition
Marriott announced the acquisition of citizenM, adding over 8,500 open rooms and 600 pipeline rooms to its system.
Negative Updates
RevPAR Decline in Greater China
First quarter RevPAR in Greater China declined 2%, due to the weaker macro environment and tough year-over-year comparisons.
Softer U.S. and Canada Growth
U.S. and Canada regions saw softer growth in March, particularly in the select service segment, leading to a lowering of full-year RevPAR growth guidance by 50 basis points.
Impact of U.S. Government Segment
Demand in the U.S. softened in March primarily due to a 10% year-over-year decline in U.S. government RevPAR.
Challenges with Construction Costs
Despite strong global signings, uncertainty around construction costs and the challenging financing environment in the U.S. and Europe was noted.
Company Guidance
During Marriott International's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong results, with global RevPAR increasing by 4.1%, surpassing the top end of their 3% to 4% guidance. In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR rose over 3%, driven by luxury and full-service hotels, while international RevPAR climbed nearly 6%, led by APAC's 11% growth. India and Japan saw significant RevPAR increases of 16% and 17%, respectively. CALA reported a 7% rise, and EMEA a 6% increase. Conversely, Greater China experienced a 2% decline due to a weaker macro environment. Group RevPAR was a standout, growing 8% globally. Despite some U.S. softness, particularly in select service segments, Marriott maintained steady growth, with a 4.6% net rooms increase over 12 months. The company adjusted full-year RevPAR growth guidance down by 50 basis points due to U.S. and Canada outlook but remains optimistic about the global pipeline, with Q1 signings up 35% year-over-year and 42% of pipeline rooms under construction. The acquisition of citizenM, comprising over 8,500 open rooms and 600 pipeline rooms, is expected to enhance Marriott's global portfolio. Marriott Bonvoy reached 237 million members, with record penetration of 68% of room nights globally. The company continues to invest in digital transformation, aiming to strengthen operations and unlock new revenue opportunities. Despite challenges, Marriott remains focused on long-term growth and efficiency improvements.

Marriott International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Marriott International demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with robust margins. However, the negative equity and increased leverage are concerning and suggest potential financial distress. Cash flows are healthy but show a decline in growth, necessitating attention to bolster cash generation.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Marriott International has shown a robust revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase from $20.77 billion in 2022 to $25.39 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting a positive growth rate. The gross profit margin stands strong at 21.26% TTM, indicating efficient cost management, though slightly below the previous year's 21.59%. Net profit margins are healthy at 9.75% TTM, slightly improved from 9.46% in 2024, demonstrating stable profitability. The EBIT margin remains strong at 15.15%, with EBITDA margin at 16.37%, supporting steady operational performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity of -$3.17 billion TTM, indicating potential financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but the total debt has increased from $15.24 billion in 2024 to $15.85 billion TTM, highlighting increased leverage. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting significant liabilities over assets, requiring attention to financial restructuring.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Marriott International's cash flow performance is strong, with a positive free cash flow of $1.84 billion TTM, although showing a slight decline from $1.99 billion in the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating effective cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate turned negative, necessitating strategies to enhance cash generation.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
25.39B25.10B23.71B20.77B13.86B10.57B
Gross Profit
5.40B5.42B5.12B4.56B2.80B1.46B
EBIT
3.85B3.77B3.92B3.53B1.75B246.00M
EBITDA
4.16B4.23B4.22B3.72B1.90B457.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.48B2.38B3.08B2.36B1.10B-267.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
523.00M396.00M338.00M507.00M1.39B877.00M
Total Assets
26.65B26.18B25.67B24.82B25.55B24.70B
Total Debt
15.85B15.24B12.76B11.10B11.24B11.20B
Net Debt
15.33B14.85B12.42B10.59B9.84B10.32B
Total Liabilities
29.82B29.17B26.36B24.25B24.14B24.27B
Stockholders Equity
-3.17B-2.99B-682.00M568.00M1.41B430.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.84B2.00B2.72B2.03B994.00M1.50B
Operating Cash Flow
2.62B2.75B3.17B2.36B1.18B1.64B
Investing Cash Flow
-782.00M-734.00M-465.00M-297.00M-187.00M35.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.74B-1.96B-2.86B-2.96B-463.00M-1.03B

Marriott International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price264.53
Price Trends
50DMA
242.83
Positive
100DMA
259.64
Positive
200DMA
258.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.40
Positive
RSI
58.70
Neutral
STOCH
37.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 264.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 260.34, above the 50-day MA of 242.83, and above the 200-day MA of 258.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAR.

Marriott International Risk Analysis

Marriott International disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott International reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Third-party claims that we infringe the intellectual property rights of others or our failure to defend our own intellectual property rights could materially adversely affect our business. Q4, 2024
2.
Changes in tax law, interpretations of existing tax law, or agreements or disputes with tax authorities could increase our tax costs. Q4, 2024

Marriott International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HLHLT
73
Outperform
$60.16B39.92-41.19%0.24%7.43%38.52%
72
Outperform
$10.84B25.7528.90%4.35%5.20%-11.08%
MAMAR
69
Neutral
$72.88B30.31-144.82%0.95%5.45%-9.50%
HH
69
Neutral
$12.59B17.0922.31%0.46%-7.38%19.62%
WHWH
67
Neutral
$6.72B20.7453.31%1.78%4.79%48.48%
IHIHG
66
Neutral
$18.23B30.63-27.16%1.38%6.34%-11.99%
62
Neutral
$6.93B11.332.94%3.90%2.68%-25.08%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAR
Marriott International
264.53
38.32
16.94%
HTHT
H World Group
35.49
-0.09
-0.25%
H
Hyatt Hotels
131.05
-13.18
-9.14%
IHG
Intercontinental Hotels Group
117.18
20.77
21.54%
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings
250.78
54.78
27.95%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
85.50
18.98
28.53%

Marriott International Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Marriott International Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Marriott International held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where 13 director nominees were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the advisory resolution on the compensation of Marriott’s named executive officers, signaling continued support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAR) stock is a Buy with a $283.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott International stock, see the MAR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.