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Lincoln National
(NYSE:LNC)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(1.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile cash flow despite improved profitability and a healthier leverage profile. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and strong dividend yield), and the latest earnings call was broadly constructive with guidance and actions (including the Talcott reinsurance) aimed at improving free cash flow, but near-term technical momentum remains soft.
Positive Factors
Sustained earnings growth
Eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted operating earnings growth indicate improving execution across Lincoln’s businesses. Sustained profitability can support capital flexibility, reinforce distribution investment, and provide a stronger foundation for more predictable earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Negative operating and free cash flow despite reported profitability raises a fundamental concern about earnings conversion. If this pattern persists, Lincoln may have less internally generated capacity for capital actions, investment, and liability management, increasing reliance on balance-sheet resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained earnings growth
Eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted operating earnings growth indicate improving execution across Lincoln’s businesses. Sustained profitability can support capital flexibility, reinforce distribution investment, and provide a stronger foundation for more predictable earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln National Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLincoln National (LNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.73B
Dividend Yield4.46%
Average Volume (3M)1.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.4
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth12.32%
EPS Growth97.86%
CountryUS
Employees9,423
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.00
Shares Outstanding191,447,340
10 Day Avg. Volume1,830,896
30 Day Avg. Volume1,981,973
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-48.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.20Price Target Upside11.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)7.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.79B
Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a U.S.-based financial services company primarily involved in the insurance and retirement sectors. Operating through various subsidiaries, its operations are structured across four key divisions: Annuities, R...
How the Company Makes Money
Lincoln National primarily makes money through insurance and retirement product economics across life insurance, annuities, and group/employee benefits. Key revenue and earnings drivers include: (1) Premiums from insurance policies: The company co...
Lincoln National Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Lincoln reported its eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted operating earnings growth, improving results across all four businesses, a major legacy-life reinsurance agreement, stronger capital flexibility, and continued progress toward higher-quality earnings and free cash flow. The main challenges were below-target alternative investment returns, lower Group Protection earnings and margin, continued annuity and Retirement Plan Services outflows, higher expenses, and the absence of announced share-repurchase timing. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Eighth Consecutive Quarter of Operating Earnings Growth
Second-quarter adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $439 million, up 3% year-over-year, marking Lincoln's eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Negative Updates
Diluted EPS Declined Year-over-Year
Diluted EPS was $2.24, slightly lower than the second quarter of 2025 because of the incremental share count from last year's Bain transaction.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Eighth Consecutive Quarter of Operating Earnings Growth
Second-quarter adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $439 million, up 3% year-over-year, marking Lincoln's eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects Group Protection to deliver a full-year margin within its targeted range of 8%-9%; fixed annuity account values to rise this year and fixed annuity sales to meaningfully increase over the remainder of the year, with FIA sales expected to meaningfully increase in the back half of the year; third-quarter annuity earnings to receive support from higher starting account balances, an additional fee day, and continued spread income growth; third-quarter alternative investment returns to improve meaningfully and run at or above the 10% annualized target; third-quarter life earnings to be in line sequentially; the Talcott transaction to close in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval, and increase ongoing annual free cash flow by approximately $30 million-$40 million a year; subsidiary remittances to be approximately $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion a year; and Lincoln to remain meaningfully above its 420% RBC ratio buffer, with an estimated RBC ratio well above its 400% target and the 20-point buffer it holds on top of it.Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.36B | 18.21B | 17.99B | 11.71B | 18.93B | 17.61B |
| Gross Profit | 11.13B | 10.44B | 4.60B | 50.00M | 2.43B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 1.56B | 4.45B | -773.00M | 2.07B | 4.96B |
| Net Income | 2.36B | 1.18B | 3.27B | -752.00M | 1.36B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 429.80B | 417.20B | 390.83B | 372.41B | 334.33B | 391.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.32B | 46.40B | 26.72B | 100.94B | 110.17B | 2.61B |
| Total Debt | 6.87B | 6.43B | 6.36B | 6.12B | 6.63B | 6.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 418.45B | 406.30B | 382.56B | 365.52B | 329.23B | 371.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.35B | 10.91B | 8.27B | 6.89B | 5.10B | 20.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.33B | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.33B | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.58B | -4.01B | 821.00M | -3.33B | -11.65B | -3.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.92B | 7.88B | 3.62B | 5.43B | 8.77B | 4.71B |
Lincoln National Technical Analysis
Positive
43.32
Price Trends
41.79
Negative
40.49
Positive
38.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.40
Negative
52.99
Neutral
62.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.30, above the 50-day MA of 41.79, and above the 200-day MA of 38.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LNC.
Lincoln National Risk Analysis
Lincoln National disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln National reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln National Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $13.04B | 11.14 | 19.84% | 0.74% | 5.24% | 21.35% | |
71 Outperform | $2.67B | 6.79 | 8.86% | 4.91% | 13.68% | 16.86% | |
70 Outperform | $5.08B | 18.66 | 10.82% | 1.26% | 5.72% | 7.05% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $7.73B | 3.37 | 21.99% | 4.46% | 12.32% | 97.86% | |
60 Neutral | $8.82B | 162.71 | 1.04% | 2.69% | 15.09% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $2.70B | 3.69 | 13.17% | ― | 2.62% | 33.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
LNC
Lincoln National
41.11
2.97
7.78%
CNO
CNO Financial
55.50
15.99
40.48%
GL
Globe Life
168.41
35.87
27.07%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
46.35
-0.29
-0.62%
JXN
Jackson Financial Incorporation
133.32
37.10
38.56%
FG
F&G Annuities & Life Inc
21.45
-7.15
-25.00%
Lincoln National Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lincoln National Announces CFO Transition and Interim Appointment
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Lincoln Financial’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Chris Neczypor informed the company he will depart at the end of August to pursue an opportunity outside the industry, with the firm stressing his ex...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln National posts strong second-quarter earnings and growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Lincoln Financial reported strong second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with net income available to common stockholders rising to $1.3 billion, or $6.72 per diluted share, and adjusted operating income of $4...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.