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Lumentum Holdings
(NASDAQ:LITE)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$635.00
▼(-16.77% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by the improved financial performance and a strong earnings-call outlook with record results and upbeat guidance. Offsetting these positives are weak intermediate technicals, a very high P/E with no dividend support, and supply constraints that can limit near-term revenue realization and add execution risk.
Positive Factors
Profitability recovery
The company has restored durable profitability across margins and revenue, indicating improved product mix and pricing power in optical components and lasers. Higher sustained margins support cash generation, reinvestment and resilience through cycles, reducing risk of repeat large operating losses.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage remains
Despite improvement, meaningful leverage constrains financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to margin or demand weakness. If cyclical revenue or margins reverse, debt servicing and refinancing needs could force harder cost cuts or limit strategic investments over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability recovery
The company has restored durable profitability across margins and revenue, indicating improved product mix and pricing power in optical components and lasers. Higher sustained margins support cash generation, reinvestment and resilience through cycles, reducing risk of repeat large operating losses.
Read all positive factors
Lumentum Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
How sales split across Lumentum’s product lines and end markets, showing which businesses drive growth, profit margins, and sensitivity to demand cycles. Segment mix reveals whether the company depends more on telecom and data‑center optics, which can be cyclical, or on commercial lasers and sensing, which may offer different growth and margin profiles — changes in the mix can signal margin pressure or faster expansion opportunities.
How sales split across Lumentum’s product lines and end markets, showing which businesses drive growth, profit margins, and sensitivity to demand cycles. Segment mix reveals whether the company depends more on telecom and data‑center optics, which can be cyclical, or on commercial lasers and sensing, which may offer different growth and margin profiles — changes in the mix can signal margin pressure or faster expansion opportunities.
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The FlyLumentum Holdings (LITE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)105.0
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth68.98%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees10,562
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.21
Shares Outstanding77,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,110,863
30 Day Avg. Volume4,625,475
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.38
Price to Book (P/B)5.76
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio-62.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,072.37Price Target Upside40.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)18.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.67B
Lumentum Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing. The company's reach extends across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Af...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumentum makes money primarily by selling photonics products (components, modules, and subsystems) to other businesses, with revenue recognized from product shipments under customer purchase orders and supply agreements. A major revenue stream com...
Lumentum Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported very strong top-line growth, substantial margin expansion, robust product shipment momentum (notably lasers and EMLs), strategic manufacturing expansion, and a strengthened balance sheet driven by a large strategic investment. Offsetting these positives are material and multi-product supply constraints (EMLs, pump lasers, narrow-linewidth lasers, OCS components) that are capping near-term shipments and forcing allocation decisions, plus the fact that new Greensboro capacity is not available until 2028. On balance, management conveyed execution confidence, meaningful near-term guidance upside, and active mitigation plans (CapEx, LTAs, contract manufacturing), while acknowledging elevated supply risks that require resolution.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue reached a record $808.4M, up 90% year-over-year, above the midpoint of guidance and driven primarily by transceivers and laser chips.
Negative Updates
Widespread Supply Constraints
Significant supply-demand imbalances across multiple product lines: EML supply shortfall reportedly >30% and pump lasers/narrow-linewidth pumps experiencing even greater tightness; wafer fab capacity in Japan fully allocated.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue reached a record $808.4M, up 90% year-over-year, above the midpoint of guidance and driven primarily by transceivers and laser chips.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for Q4 (FY26) was provided on a non‑GAAP basis: Lumentum expects revenue of $960 million to $1.01 billion (midpoint $985 million, a new quarterly record), with the company noting that >50% of the sequential growth is expected to come from components and the remainder from systems (primarily high‑speed transceivers and additional OCS), and they expect to ramp 1.6T transceivers in the quarter; projected non‑GAAP operating margin is 35%–36%, non‑GAAP diluted net income per share is $2.85–$3.05 (based on an annual non‑GAAP effective tax rate of 16.5% and approximately 102 million diluted shares), and the guide assumes modest initial insourcing (~20% of modules using Lumentum CW lasers) while management reiterates the longer‑term $2 billion quarterly target.Lumentum Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.49B | 1.65B | 1.36B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 938.50M | 459.90M | 251.50M | 569.00M | 788.60M | 788.60M |
| EBITDA | 552.20M | 106.80M | -81.60M | 188.70M | 482.40M | 482.40M |
| Net Income | 439.90M | 25.90M | -546.50M | -131.60M | 198.90M | 198.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.03B | 4.22B | 3.93B | 4.63B | 4.16B | 3.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.17B | 877.10M | 887.00M | 2.01B | 2.55B | 1.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.31B | 2.61B | 2.56B | 2.87B | 1.94B | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.05B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 3.28B | 2.29B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.97B | 1.13B | 957.30M | 1.36B | 1.88B | 1.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 273.80M | -104.70M | -111.30M | 51.30M | 368.10M | 643.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 452.40M | 126.30M | 24.70M | 179.80M | 459.30M | 738.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -540.50M | -84.10M | -114.30M | -874.00M | -226.30M | 1.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.19B | 41.80M | -332.70M | 263.00M | 282.90M | -263.40M |
Lumentum Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
762.99
Price Trends
829.67
Negative
827.58
Negative
598.38
Positive
Market Momentum
-15.17
Negative
45.91
Neutral
68.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LITE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 762.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 745.81, below the 50-day MA of 829.67, and above the 200-day MA of 598.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -15.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LITE.
Lumentum Holdings Risk Analysis
Lumentum Holdings disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumentum Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lumentum Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $46.76B | 113.43 | 15.65% | ― | 30.59% | 323.23% | |
62 Neutral | $4.24B | -146.54 | -12.86% | ― | 3.51% | -5666.87% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $46.86B | 104.98 | 30.68% | ― | 68.98% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $3.80B | 246.02 | 21.07% | ― | 14.90% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.95B | -144.68 | -6.92% | ― | 30.59% | -1171.00% |
* Technology Sector Average
LITE
Lumentum Holdings
693.24
586.56
549.83%
CIEN
Ciena
372.07
283.44
319.80%
EXTR
Extreme Networks
29.84
12.57
72.79%
VIAV
Viavi Solutions
35.05
25.29
259.12%
PI
IMPINJ
147.49
-5.43
-3.55%
Lumentum Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumentum Reduces Convertible Debt Through Private Share Exchange
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. agreed in privately negotiated deals to exchange about $650.4 million of its 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 for roughly 5.0 million shares of common stock, representing the principal and related con...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.