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Kinsale Capital Group
(NYSE:KNSL)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$455.00
▲(17.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, strong ROE, excellent cash conversion, and low leverage). Technicals support the trend but are somewhat stretched on momentum indicators, and valuation looks reasonable on P/E though the dividend is very small. Earnings commentary was constructive with disciplined profitability and buybacks, partially offset by soft premium growth and competitive pricing pressure.
Positive Factors
Underwriting profitability
A 75.4% combined ratio and operating ROE above 25% demonstrate strong underwriting economics and disciplined risk selection. Sustaining these results would support internal capital generation, reinforce Kinsale’s specialty-market position, and provide resilience as pricing conditions normalize.
Negative Factors
Premium growth slowdown
Declining written premium indicates that recent underwriting strength is not yet translating into expanding volume. If the slowdown persists, slower premium growth could limit operating leverage, reduce future investment float growth, and make it harder to sustain earnings momentum despite strong margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting profitability
A 75.4% combined ratio and operating ROE above 25% demonstrate strong underwriting economics and disciplined risk selection. Sustaining these results would support internal capital generation, reinforce Kinsale’s specialty-market position, and provide resilience as pricing conditions normalize.
Read all positive factors
Kinsale Capital Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes different sources of income, highlighting which segments drive growth and how diversified the company's revenue streams are.
Analyzes different sources of income, highlighting which segments drive growth and how diversified the company's revenue streams are.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKinsale Capital Group (KNSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.07B
Dividend Yield0.26%
Average Volume (3M)245.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth8.35%
EPS Growth12.40%
CountryUS
Employees716
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)23.00
Shares Outstanding22,509,945
10 Day Avg. Volume262,050
30 Day Avg. Volume245,564
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.84
Price to Book (P/B)4.62
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio9.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$347.17Price Target Upside-10.51% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)21.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.63B
Kinsale Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company’s commercial lines offerings include commercial property, excess casualty, general casualty, small business casualty...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinsale Capital Group primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income generated from its insurance operations.
1) Underwriting (insurance) income
- Premiums collected: Kinsale charges policyholders insurance premiu...
Kinsale Capital Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: operating earnings, ROE, underwriting profitability, investment income, capital returns, technology, and submission activity were strong, while management emphasized disciplined growth and pricing. The principal challenges were declining written premium, a soft and highly competitive E&S market, pressure in Commercial Property and large accounts, a GAAP earnings decline caused by investment repositioning, and competition in personal lines. Management characterized the premium decline as a temporary mix shift and remained confident in the company's operating model.Positive Updates
Operating Earnings and Return on Equity Growth
Third-quarter 2026 diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% year over year. Annualized operating ROE was 25.6% through nine months, while annualized GAAP ROE was 26.6%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Written Premium
Gross written premium declined 4.8% year over year and net written premium declined 1.5%. Excluding the Commercial Property division, gross written premium was down 0.5%.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operating Earnings and Return on Equity Growth
Third-quarter 2026 diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% year over year. Annualized operating ROE was 25.6% through nine months, while annualized GAAP ROE was 26.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects the most recent CAT activity impact on results to be immaterial; the average premium per policy was $10.7 thousand through Q3 and will “probably remain pretty steady but it will trend maybe slightly downward as competition picks up,” while commercial property reductions are “hopefully” expected to moderate. At this time, $100 million is expected to be a good quarterly run rate for repurchases, with the company planning to be opportunistic otherwise and intending that run rate for the remainder of its repurchase authorization; fixed-income repositioning is expected to add $5.5 million to $6 million annually. The company continues to target a 20% return on equity or better, expects its expense ratio to “drift downward over time, not up,” plans to roll out an additional 5 or 6 new offerings, and expects the temporary drop off in written premium to “correct near term on its own” and return to “a modest growth hopefully in the near term.”Kinsale Capital Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95B | 1.87B | 1.59B | 1.22B | 838.80M | 653.47M |
| Gross Profit | 996.72M | 983.30M | 680.44M | 510.51M | 287.13M | 255.91M |
| EBITDA | 676.43M | 650.78M | 530.65M | 397.59M | 202.57M | 192.10M |
| Net Income | 525.18M | 503.61M | 414.84M | 308.09M | 159.11M | 152.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.43B | 6.04B | 4.89B | 3.77B | 2.75B | 2.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.44B | 2.68B | 3.65B | 2.84B | 1.96B | 1.51B |
| Total Debt | 224.60M | 224.40M | 184.12M | 183.85M | 195.75M | 85.39M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.51B | 4.08B | 3.40B | 2.69B | 2.00B | 1.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92B | 1.96B | 1.48B | 1.09B | 745.45M | 699.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 973.04M | 990.05M | 952.36M | 853.23M | 550.91M | 401.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 996.28M | 1.04B | 976.30M | 859.84M | 557.82M | 407.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -691.43M | -922.21M | -960.13M | -860.89M | -708.57M | -351.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -314.51M | -71.38M | -29.66M | -28.52M | 185.99M | -11.14M |
Kinsale Capital Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
387.95
Price Trends
359.15
Negative
350.12
Positive
351.19
Positive
Market Momentum
4.99
Negative
50.80
Neutral
29.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNSL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 387.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 352.59, above the 50-day MA of 359.15, and above the 200-day MA of 351.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KNSL.
Kinsale Capital Group Risk Analysis
Kinsale Capital Group disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kinsale Capital Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kinsale Capital Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $8.07B | 15.58 | 26.66% | 0.26% | 8.35% | 12.40% | |
81 Outperform | $3.59B | 17.79 | 21.61% | 0.32% | 60.27% | 30.93% | |
80 Outperform | $26.61B | 15.08 | 18.87% | 2.62% | 1.45% | -0.85% | |
76 Outperform | $22.86B | 13.05 | 10.54% | ― | 0.86% | 8.75% | |
72 Outperform | $5.85B | 14.86 | 22.50% | 7.34% | 6.25% | 11.83% | |
72 Outperform | $2.57B | 13.11 | 16.84% | ― | 37.99% | 34.78% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group
358.42
-44.13
-10.96%
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SKWD
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Kinsale Capital Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kinsale Capital announces CFO transition and board expansion
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Kinsale Capital Group’s longtime Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Bryan P. Petrucelli, informed the company of his intention to retire from his executive roles effective March 2, 2027. On ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.