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Knife River Corporation
(NYSE:KNF)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$84.00
▲(7.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
KNF scores as moderately attractive: strong and confident operating outlook from the latest earnings call (reaffirmed guidance, record backlog, volume growth and margin initiatives) is tempered by mixed fundamentals—especially higher leverage and volatile/weak free cash flow—and by lukewarm technicals and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Strong backlog and near-term revenue visibility
A ~$1.2B record backlog with ~75% expected to be completed in 2026 materially increases revenue visibility and reduces near-term demand uncertainty. This allows better planning of capital, labor and materials, supports guidance credibility and smooths revenue through the peak construction season.
Negative Factors
Increased leverage versus prior years
Leverage roughly doubled versus 2024, reducing financial flexibility and increasing interest-rate and cyclical exposure. Higher net debt raises refinancing and covenant risk, constrains discretionary investment during downturns, and makes results more sensitive to margin swings in a cyclical construction market.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong backlog and near-term revenue visibility
A ~$1.2B record backlog with ~75% expected to be completed in 2026 materially increases revenue visibility and reduces near-term demand uncertainty. This allows better planning of capital, labor and materials, supports guidance credibility and smooths revenue through the peak construction season.
Read all positive factors
Knife River Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Category
Breaks sales into product and service buckets such as aggregates, asphalt, ready-mix concrete, and construction services to show what the company actually sells. The mix matters because some categories are commodity-like and sensitive to construction cycles and input prices, while others are service-driven with different margin profiles and backlog visibility, so shifts in the mix can signal changing risk and growth potential.
Breaks sales into product and service buckets such as aggregates, asphalt, ready-mix concrete, and construction services to show what the company actually sells. The mix matters because some categories are commodity-like and sensitive to construction cycles and input prices, while others are service-driven with different margin profiles and backlog visibility, so shifts in the mix can signal changing risk and growth potential.
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The Fly
The FlyKnife River Corporation (KNF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)532.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.2
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth12.13%
EPS Growth-8.86%
CountryUS
Employees5,298
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryConstruction Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.46
Shares Outstanding56,763,420
10 Day Avg. Volume374,141
30 Day Avg. Volume532,725
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.14
Price to Book (P/B)2.43
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio-57.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.20Price Target Upside10.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.45B
Knife River Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Knife River Corporation is a U.S.-based entity focused on supplying aggregate-derived building materials and offering related contracting services. Its business activities are structured across six distinct operational segments: Pacific, Northwest...
How the Company Makes Money
Knife River makes money primarily by producing, selling, and delivering construction materials and by performing related construction/contracting services. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Aggregates: extracting and processing crushed st...
Knife River Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive tone: strong top-line and adjusted EBITDA growth, record backlog, significant aggregate and ready-mix volume gains, margin expansion initiatives, and accretive acquisitions support confidence in the 2026 outlook. Near-term challenges include contracting services margin softness in Q1, geographic mix effects on reported aggregates pricing, and emerging energy cost pressure — all of which management says are being mitigated via pricing tools, diesel pre-purchases and integration of recent acquisitions. On balance, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased 16% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 16% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 290 basis points.
Negative Updates
Contracting Services Margin Weakness in Q1
Contracting services margins were down in the quarter; first quarter is seasonally small (~10% of revenue) and margins were impacted by project timing, geographic mix and two months of expected seasonal losses at Strata.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased 16% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 16% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 290 basis points.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Knife River reaffirmed its February 2026 guidance and said results are tracking toward the upper half of its revenue and adjusted‑EBITDA ranges, citing expectations for mid‑single‑digit aggregates pricing (as‑reported), at least 200 basis points of aggregate margin expansion, mid‑teens ready‑mix volume growth, and mid‑single‑digit asphalt volume growth; the company enters the season with record backlog of about $1.2 billion (≈75% expected to be completed in 2026), expects SG&A to be comparable to 2025 as a percent of revenue before trending lower in future years, plans to end 2026 with no borrowing on its $500 million revolver and net leverage near its 2.5x target (available liquidity ~ $190 million), and highlighted Q1 capex of $42 million (maintenance/improvement) plus $209 million of growth spend (≈$174 million on three acquisitions and $35 million on aggregate expansions), while noting diesel mitigation actions cover roughly 80% of its ~20–25 million gallon annual diesel use.Knife River Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.31B | 3.15B | 2.90B | 2.83B | 2.53B | 2.23B |
| Gross Profit | 591.46M | 577.30M | 569.83M | 538.93M | 360.89M | 346.95M |
| EBITDA | 437.32M | 488.80M | 463.11M | 427.21M | 306.74M | 293.41M |
| Net Income | 139.85M | 157.10M | 201.68M | 182.87M | 116.22M | 129.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 3.65B | 2.85B | 2.60B | 2.29B | 2.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.69M | 123.42M | 281.13M | 262.32M | 10.09M | 13.85M |
| Total Debt | 1.67B | 1.22B | 726.76M | 726.37M | 730.96M | 734.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.57B | 2.01B | 1.38B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.61B | 1.64B | 1.48B | 1.27B | 1.03B | 952.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.06M | -69.57M | 149.90M | 211.44M | 29.28M | 7.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 312.68M | 278.48M | 322.32M | 335.73M | 207.44M | 181.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -544.31M | -913.66M | -294.80M | -117.89M | -155.88M | -398.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 255.99M | 477.47M | -8.71M | 34.39M | -55.32M | 223.80M |
Knife River Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
78.06
Price Trends
79.20
Negative
81.26
Negative
78.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.60
Positive
34.70
Neutral
11.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.94, below the 50-day MA of 79.20, and below the 200-day MA of 78.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KNF.
Knife River Corporation Risk Analysis
Knife River Corporation disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Knife River Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Knife River Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.44B | 25.60 | 20.76% | 0.22% | 7.00% | 7.12% | |
70 Outperform | $3.02B | 29.16 | 5.12% | 1.13% | -1.52% | -56.95% | |
68 Neutral | $1.96B | 15.54 | 17.29% | 1.12% | 9.87% | -26.90% | |
67 Neutral | $2.95B | 16.68 | 16.96% | 0.93% | 5.46% | 7.16% | |
65 Neutral | $17.25B | 34.02 | 3.67% | 0.82% | 9.40% | -67.61% | |
63 Neutral | $3.79B | 27.15 | 8.72% | ― | 12.13% | -8.86% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
KNF
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-23.58%
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Knife River Corporation Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Knife River posts second-quarter 2026 earnings update
Neutral
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Knife River Corporation announced its second quarter 2026 earnings, releasing financial results for the period to the market and regulators. The disclosure, furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission, marked a key updat...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Knife River Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer, Realigns Finance
Positive
May 21, 2026
Knife River Corporation’s board on May 20, 2026 appointed Peggy S. Rebstock, previously vice president of financial planning and analysis, as vice president, chief accounting officer and controller effective May 21, 2026, making her the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Knife River Amends Credit Facility to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Knife River Corporation amended its existing credit agreement, increasing its term B loans by $400 million and reducing the interest rate margin by 0.25%, resulting in a total of $895 million outstanding in 2026 Tranche B Term Loa...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Knife River Releases First Quarter 2026 Earnings Update
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Knife River Corporation, a construction materials supplier focused on aggregates, concrete and asphalt for infrastructure and building markets, continues to serve regional construction demand through its integrated operations. The company plays a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.