Komatsu (KMTUY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

The company guided for fiscal 2026 on exchange rates of JPY150/USD, JPY170/EUR and JPY106/AUD and forecast consolidated net sales of JPY 4,118.0 billion (‑0.4% y/y), operating income of JPY 508.0 billion (‑10.5% y/y) and net income of JPY 318.0 billion (‑15.5% y/y), with ROE projected at 9.1%; it plans to keep the dividend at JPY 190/sh (consolidated payout ratio 53.8%) and the Board approved a share repurchase up to JPY 100.0 billion (25 million shares) —bringing total payout including buyback to 85.4%. By segment, C&ME revenue is guided at JPY 3.79 trillion (‑0.4%) with segment profit JPY 440.0 billion (‑10.4%) and a margin of 11.6% (‑1.3 pp); mining equipment sales are set at JPY 1,858.5 billion (‑2.4%) while general construction equipment is JPY 1,919.7 billion (+1.5%). Retail Finance is expected at JPY 127.5 billion (+1.1%) with segment profit JPY 36.0 billion (‑1.6%) and ROA ~2.3%, and Industrial Machinery & Others at JPY 239.0 billion (+0.1%) with profit JPY 37.0 billion (‑2.5%, margin 15.5% ↓0.4 pp). The outlook factors in JPY 67.8 billion of added U.S. tariff costs and JPY 30.0 billion of refunds (net tariff cost ~JPY 37.8 billion), a JPY 90.1 billion assumed sales hit and JPY 18.8 billion cost increase from the Middle East situation, parts sales rising to JPY 1,078.5 billion (+2.2%) with an aftermarket share of ~53%, and higher capex/R&D and fixed costs (wage and R&D increases) to support product and power-source development.