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Cummins
(NYSE:CMI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$619.00
▲(8.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
CMI’s score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins/returns and improved recent free cash flow) and a constructive earnings update with raised 2026 guidance and strong Power Systems/China momentum. These positives are tempered by a less supportive near-term technical setup (below key short-term moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation headwind (P/E ~32.8 with a modest ~1.26% yield).
Positive Factors
Raised guidance and broad-based growth
Higher guidance and record sales indicate strengthening demand across engines, components, distribution and power systems. Broad-based growth can improve operating leverage and supports a more durable earnings base than performance tied to one end market.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings and cash-flow volatility
Uneven cash conversion and historically volatile profitability make results sensitive to truck, construction, mining and industrial cycles. Even with recent improvement, weaker demand could reduce funding available for investment, returns and balance-sheet improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised guidance and broad-based growth
Higher guidance and record sales indicate strengthening demand across engines, components, distribution and power systems. Broad-based growth can improve operating leverage and supports a more durable earnings base than performance tied to one end market.
Read all positive factors
Cummins Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across regions (North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America) to show where Cummins earns sales and which markets drive growth. Reveals dependence on heavy-truck and industrial demand in certain areas, exposure to currency and economic swings, and where aftermarket or growth opportunities (like Asia or emerging markets) may offset weakness elsewhere.
Breaks down revenue across regions (North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America) to show where Cummins earns sales and which markets drive growth. Reveals dependence on heavy-truck and industrial demand in certain areas, exposure to currency and economic swings, and where aftermarket or growth opportunities (like Asia or emerging markets) may offset weakness elsewhere.
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The Fly
The FlyCummins (CMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$75.87B
Dividend Yield1.49%
Average Volume (3M)951.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.0
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth2.93%
EPS Growth-8.06%
CountryUS
Employees67,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)19.65
Shares Outstanding137,664,490
10 Day Avg. Volume924,669
30 Day Avg. Volume951,271
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.89
Price to Book (P/B)5.70
Price to Sales (P/S)2.09
P/FCF Ratio29.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$775.45Price Target Upside35.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)29.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.61B
Cummins Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cummins Inc. is a global innovator in power solutions, responsible for the design, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of a broad array of diesel and natural gas engines, alongside cutting-edge electric and hybrid powertrains, and associa...
How the Company Makes Money
Cummins makes money primarily by selling powertrain and power generation products and by earning recurring revenue from parts and services over the operating life of those products. (1) Original equipment sales: Cummins generates revenue from manu...
Cummins Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: record revenue and EBITDA dollars, raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, robust cash flow, meaningful data center and China demand, and expanded capacity/product plans. Offsetting pressures include margin percent compression driven by incentive compensation, higher R&D/product coverage and freight costs, ongoing Accelera losses, and power generation capacity constraints that temper upside. Management communicated clear plans to invest in capacity, execute a phased EPA-driven engine rollout to smooth transition risk, and return capital to shareholders.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Sales
Second quarter sales of $9.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year, representing a record second quarter for the company.
Negative Updates
EBITDA Margin Compression (Percent)
Although EBITDA dollars increased, company-wide EBITDA margin fell to 17.5% from 18.4% a year ago; gross margin percent modestly declined to 26.1% from 26.4% YOY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Sales
Second quarter sales of $9.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year, representing a record second quarter for the company.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Cummins raised its 2026 guidance and provided detailed segment targets: total company revenue growth now 10%–13% with consolidated EBITDA 18%–18.5% and an effective full‑year tax rate of ~23% (ex‑discrete items); capital spending $1.35B–$1.45B. Key market and volume guidance: North America heavy‑duty 240k–250k units, medium‑duty 130k–140k, pickup engine shipments 125k–140k; China revenues up ~15% (China heavy/medium truck demand now -5% to +5%); India revenues +2%; global construction flat to +10%; mining engine sales -5% to +5%; aftermarket +3% to +8%; global power generation revenues +15% to +25% (Power Systems revenue guidance +14% to +19% with EBITDA margins 25%–25.75%). Segment outlooks: Engine revenues +9%–14% (EBITDA 12.5%–13.25%), Components +8%–13% (EBITDA 13.5%–14.25%), Distribution revenues +9%–14% (EBITDA 13.5%–14.25%). Accelera now $350M–$400M revenue with net losses of $260M–$290M.Cummins Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.71B | 33.67B | 34.10B | 34.06B | 28.07B | 24.02B |
| Gross Profit | 8.79B | 8.52B | 8.44B | 8.25B | 6.72B | 5.70B |
| EBITDA | 4.97B | 5.40B | 6.34B | 3.02B | 3.80B | 3.52B |
| Net Income | 2.71B | 2.84B | 3.95B | 735.00M | 2.15B | 2.13B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.63B | 33.99B | 31.54B | 32.01B | 30.30B | 23.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.92B | 3.61B | 2.26B | 2.74B | 2.57B | 3.19B |
| Total Debt | 8.29B | 8.11B | 7.60B | 7.21B | 8.36B | 4.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.72B | 20.58B | 20.23B | 22.10B | 20.07B | 14.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.85B | 12.35B | 10.27B | 8.85B | 8.97B | 8.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.37B | 2.39B | 279.00M | 2.75B | 1.05B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.65B | 3.62B | 1.49B | 3.97B | 1.96B | 2.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.66B | -1.84B | -1.78B | -1.64B | -4.17B | -873.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -662.00M | -173.00M | -2.18B | 1.67B | -2.23B |
Cummins Technical Analysis
Negative
572.67
Price Trends
637.08
Negative
649.76
Negative
595.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-23.99
Positive
26.33
Positive
8.38
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 572.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 600.50, below the 50-day MA of 637.08, and below the 200-day MA of 595.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -23.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.33 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMI.
Cummins Risk Analysis
Cummins disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cummins reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cummins Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $120.01B | 32.85 | 25.11% | 0.75% | 8.31% | 4.96% | |
77 Outperform | $64.45B | 25.66 | 12.73% | 2.05% | -10.49% | -18.64% | |
76 Outperform | $82.35B | 32.47 | 12.69% | 1.48% | 4.82% | -1.66% | |
76 Outperform | $28.96B | 30.61 | 9.46% | 0.09% | 7.85% | 88.74% | |
69 Neutral | $75.87B | 28.04 | 21.89% | 1.20% | 2.93% | -8.06% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $10.70B | 40.99 | 9.54% | ― | 0.61% | -27.77% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CMI
Cummins
550.90
164.42
42.54%
EMR
Emerson Electric Company
148.98
21.48
16.85%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
180.76
5.62
3.21%
PCAR
Paccar
122.13
28.23
30.06%
PH
Parker Hannifin
949.38
207.03
27.89%
IR
Ingersoll Rand
75.00
-2.30
-2.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.