Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. (9887) AI Stock Analysis

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:9887)

Select Model

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:JPY 6,048.00▲(6.67% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/19/26

The score is driven primarily by improving but still modest fundamentals: revenue and margin recovery, healthier ROE, and solid operating cash flows are offset by thin net margins, rising leverage, and recently negative free cash flow from heavy investment. Technical indicators are soft, with the price below all key moving averages and momentum readings only mildly supportive, limiting near-term upside visibility. Valuation around a mid-20s P/E with a low dividend yield appears neutral to slightly rich for the current risk-reward, resulting in a mid-range overall score.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue GrowthSustained high revenue growth indicates expanding demand across the restaurant network and provides a durable base for operating leverage. Continued sales expansion can support reinvestment in stores, brands, and operations while strengthening the company’s position in Japan’s quick-service dining market.

Negative Factors

Rising LeverageThe sharp increase in debt relative to equity raises the company’s sensitivity to interest costs and weaker operating conditions. Higher leverage also reduces financial flexibility, leaving fewer internal resources available for store investment, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. (9887) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 116.77B
Dividend Yield: 0.44%
Average Volume (3M): 69.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.1
Beta (1Y): 0.22
Revenue Growth: 17.68%
EPS Growth: 41.66%
Country: Japan
Employees: 2,617
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Restaurants

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. is a prominent restaurant group operating across Japan, China, and Taiwan. Its diverse portfolio includes popular beef-on-rice and set meal chains, alongside specialized restaurants offering pork cutlets, sushi, and C...

How the Company Makes Money

The company makes money mainly by operating restaurant stores under its various brands and collecting revenue from food and beverage sales to customers. Revenue is generated at the point of sale in company-operated locations (in-store dining, takeout...

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has grown in the low-to-mid teens for four consecutive years, margins and ROE have recovered from 2021 lows, and operating cash flow is solid, but net margins remain thin, leverage has trended higher, and free cash flow has turned negative due to heavy investment, leaving the financial profile sound yet exposed if growth returns disappoint.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

65Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	191.97B	184.47B	154.22B	127.61B	106.60B	94.47B
Gross Profit	121.12B	116.50B	98.59B	84.00B	70.74B	61.51B
EBITDA	14.73B	14.46B	10.16B	9.32B	6.58B	7.23B
Net Income	3.92B	3.77B	2.19B	2.92B	1.26B	1.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	135.89B	140.79B	104.16B	91.12B	79.70B	76.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.58B	30.68B	16.87B	19.12B	14.88B	13.39B
Total Debt	52.64B	54.98B	35.37B	26.59B	21.12B	20.37B
Total Liabilities	77.93B	83.12B	58.54B	47.25B	38.29B	36.36B
Stockholders Equity	57.95B	57.67B	45.62B	43.87B	41.40B	40.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-1.35B	-6.20B	4.08B	2.75B	3.55B
Operating Cash Flow	0	14.94B	8.32B	13.24B	8.65B	8.84B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-26.54B	-17.76B	-11.89B	-6.57B	-5.70B
Financing Cash Flow	0	26.06B	7.14B	2.74B	-595.65M	-3.46B

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price5670.00

Price Trends

50DMA5291.77Positive

100DMA5059.62Positive

200DMA5404.37Positive

Market Momentum

MACD104.91Negative

RSI61.65Neutral

STOCH50.28Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9887, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5670.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5426.00, above the 50-day MA of 5291.77, and above the 200-day MA of 5404.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 104.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9887.

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:9887 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:2702	73Outperform	JPY 1.16T	31.49	13.01%	0.64%	2.34%	8.58%
JP:9887	66Neutral	JPY 115.29B	28.09	―	0.44%	17.68%	41.66%
JP:3197	63Neutral	JPY 826.29B	43.41	10.08%	0.66%	11.29%	22.50%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:2695	53Neutral	JPY 137.27B	63.18	―	0.87%	4.28%	-3.16%
JP:9861	51Neutral	JPY 291.39B	50.33	―	0.51%	9.53%	37.85%
JP:3397	49Neutral	JPY 423.76B	483.02	―	0.23%	3.28%	-79.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:9887 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:9887	Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd.	5670.00	-152.72	-2.62%
JP:2702	Mcdonalds Holdings Company Japan	8710.00	2721.80	45.45%
JP:3197	Skylark Holdings Co	3636.00	806.08	28.48%
JP:2695	Kura Sushi, Inc.	1729.00	121.14	7.53%
JP:3397	TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation	4835.00	391.23	8.80%
JP:9861	Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd.	4540.00	1553.22	52.00%

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Matsuya Foods Reveals Major Data Breach in Official App System

Oct 30, 2026

Matsuya Foods Holdings has disclosed that a third party gained unauthorized access to the management system for its official app, compromising the personal data of members using Matsuben Net, Mobile Order, and Matsuben Delivery. The breach affected i...

Matsuya Foods Boosts Sales and Dividend Outlook as Profit Margins Tighten

Aug 14, 2026

Matsuya Foods Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥50.7 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, up 17.4% year on year, while operating and ordinary profit declined 28.0% and 25.7% respectively, indicating higher costs or invest...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis