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KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. (7809) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:7809

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD.

(TSE/TYO:7809)

Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:JPY 1,457.00â–²(9.80% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:08/17/26

The score is primarily held back by weaker financial performance trends (revenue softness and significant margin/ROE compression) despite a healthier balance sheet and improved 2026 cash flow. Valuation provides meaningful support (moderate P/E and ~3.35% yield). Technically, the stock is above key moving averages, but overbought signals (RSI ~70, Stoch ~97) temper the near-term setup.

Positive Factors
Improved Balance SheetSustained deleveraging and rising equity improve financial flexibility, reduce balance-sheet risk, and give Kotobukiya more capacity to fund product development, inventory, and channel expansion.
Negative Factors
Revenue ContractionRecent revenue softness suggests weaker product demand, launch execution, or channel conditions. If the decline persists, lower sales volume could limit operating leverage and make it harder to absorb product development and licensing costs.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. (7809) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:7809-15.20%EWJ+18.01%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 10.71B
Dividend Yield
3.39%
Average Volume (3M)
4,198
Price to Earnings (P/E)
21.5
Beta (1Y)
0.27
Revenue Growth
1.66%
EPS Growth
-54.75%
Country
Japan
Employees
192
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Leisure

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kotobukiya Co., Ltd. operates globally, managing the entire lifecycle of hobby-related merchandise, from conceptualization and design through production, inventory management, and distribution. Their diverse product offerings include collectible plas...

How the Company Makes Money

KOTOBUKIYA makes money primarily by commercializing character and hobby intellectual property into physical products and monetizing those products through a mix of direct-to-consumer and business-to-business sales. (1) Product sales (core): The compa...

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial stability is supported by a stronger balance sheet (debt-to-equity improved to ~0.29) and improved 2026 operating/free cash flow, but operating performance has weakened: revenue is slightly down (~-4.8% in 2026) and margins/returns compressed sharply (net margin ~3.0% in 2026; ROE ~6.0%), indicating reduced earnings power versus prior years.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue17.63B16.78B16.50B16.38B18.10B14.29B
Gross Profit5.59B5.06B5.24B5.07B6.12B5.48B
EBITDA2.73B2.25B2.78B2.80B3.57B3.10B
Net Income953.61M497.85M1.09B1.10B1.76B1.62B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.83B12.88B13.46B12.04B11.52B10.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.32B4.12B3.32B2.96B3.24B1.96B
Total Debt2.86B2.44B3.23B3.07B2.89B3.47B
Total Liabilities4.71B4.58B5.42B4.83B5.16B5.85B
Stockholders Equity8.12B8.30B8.04B7.22B6.36B4.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow01.30B842.94M-55.46M2.11B425.98M
Operating Cash Flow02.96B1.98B1.06B3.15B1.16B
Investing Cash Flow0-1.93B-1.67B-1.38B-1.21B-913.05M
Financing Cash Flow0-1.12B-105.77M-65.84M-765.88M-197.20M

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:7809 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:7832JP:783279OutperformJPY 3.99T28.4417.83%1.20%9.12%16.20%
JP:7867JP:786772OutperformJPY 432.92B36.59―1.40%7.38%-27.18%
JP:6238JP:623871OutperformJPY 38.99B17.37―2.83%5.23%37.68%
JP:9166JP:916671OutperformJPY 114.61B39.79―0.64%47.16%21.05%
JP:7809JP:780967NeutralJPY 11.10B21.49―3.39%1.66%-54.75%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:4343JP:434345NeutralJPY 54.28B18.34―0.91%10.11%―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%JP:7809JP:7832JP:4343JP:6238JP:7867JP:9166Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:7809 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:7809KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD.1327.00-246.56-15.67%
JP:7832BANDAI NAMCO Holdings 6238.001841.4741.88%
JP:4343AEON Fantasy Co., Ltd.2754.00-44.79-1.60%
JP:6238FURYU CORP.1415.00413.2841.26%
JP:7867Tomy Company, Ltd.4796.001606.1050.35%
JP:9166GENDA Inc.622.00-37.48-5.68%

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Corporate Events

Kotobukiya Posts Solid FY2026 Results and Keeps High Dividend Payout

Aug 14, 2026

Kotobukiya reported its first set of consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, recording net sales of ¥16,777 million and profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥497 million. Operating profit reached...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026