Komatsu Ltd. (6301) AI Stock Analysis

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Komatsu Ltd.

(6301)

Select Model

Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

¥6,560.00

▲(18.20% Upside)

Komatsu Ltd. demonstrates strong technical momentum and a solid financial foundation, though it faces challenges in revenue growth and market conditions. The valuation is fair, with an attractive dividend yield. Earnings call insights reveal significant market challenges, impacting the overall score.

Komatsu Ltd. (6301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap

¥5.00T

Dividend Yield3.28%

Average Volume (3M)2.54M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7

Beta (1Y)1.26

Revenue Growth3.12%

EPS Growth8.28%

CountryJP

Employees65,738

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryAgricultural - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)92.69

Shares Outstanding950,953,100

10 Day Avg. Volume2,633,020

30 Day Avg. Volume2,544,656

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.66

Price to Book (P/B)1.26

Price to Sales (P/S)0.97

P/FCF Ratio12.83

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

¥5,200.00

Price Target Upside-6.31% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Komatsu Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKomatsu Ltd. (6301) is a leading global manufacturer of construction, mining, and utility equipment, as well as industrial machinery. Founded in 1921 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, the company operates in multiple sectors including construction and mining, forestry, and industrial machinery. Its core products include hydraulic excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders, dump trucks, and various attachments and components, which are designed to enhance productivity and efficiency in various industrial applications.

How the Company Makes MoneyKomatsu generates revenue primarily through the sale of heavy equipment and machinery used in construction, mining, and other industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is driven by several key streams: first, the direct sale of new machinery, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings; second, the sale of used equipment and parts; and third, after-sales services including maintenance and repair, which provide ongoing revenue. Additionally, Komatsu benefits from strategic partnerships with other companies in the construction and mining sectors, enhancing its market reach and product offerings. The company also invests in technology and innovation, such as automation and smart construction solutions, which are increasingly popular in the industry and contribute to its revenue growth.

Komatsu Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025

(Q3-2025)

Next Earnings Date:Jan 30, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of positive achievements, such as record highs in net sales and income, and challenges, particularly in specific regional markets and segments. While the company reported strong performance in retail finance and launched new products, it also faced decreased demand in key regions and rising production costs.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Highs in Net Sales and Income

Net sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year to ¥989.2 billion and operating income by 4% to ¥162.6 billion in Q3. Net income rose by 9.7% to ¥108.3 billion, marking third quarter record highs for net sales and income.

Strong Performance in Retail Finance and Industrial Machinery

Retail Finance sales increased by 11.1% year-on-year to ¥30.2 billion, with segment profits up by 22.3%. Industrial Machinery & Others sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year to ¥49.9 billion, with segment profit increasing by approximately 5.7 times.

Improved Market Conditions in Asia

In Q3, net sales in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment segment increased in Oceania and Asia, with a notable recovery in demand in Indonesia.

Successful Launch of New Excavator Model

Komatsu launched the PC200i-12 excavator with 3D machine guidance as standard in Japan on December 1, 2024, expected to be available in other markets in FY 2025.

Negative Updates

Decline in Construction and Mining Equipment Segment Profits

Segment profits for Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment decreased by 1.4% to ¥147 billion, with the profit ratio declining by 0.2 points to 16%.

Decreased Demand in Key Markets

Q3 saw a 12% year-on-year decrease in demand in Japan and a 20% decrease in Europe. The full-year demand forecasts for these regions were revised downwards.

Challenges with Foreign Competition in Asia

Concerns about the threat from Chinese manufacturers in Asia persist, affecting strategic decisions and market share considerations.

Increased Production Costs

Higher production costs were driven by increased steel prices, rubber costs, and partner company labor costs.

Company Guidance

In the call, Komatsu provided detailed financial guidance for fiscal 2024 Q3. Key metrics highlighted include a 1.8% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥989.2 billion, with operating income rising by 4% to ¥162.6 billion, resulting in an operating income ratio of 16.4%. Net income saw a significant increase of 9.7% to ¥108.3 billion, marking a record high for the third quarter. Segment performance varied, with Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment's sales remaining flat at ¥918.2 billion, while Retail Finance and Industrial Machinery & Others segments saw sales increases of 11.1% and 7.5%, respectively. Exchange rates played a crucial role, with the yen at ¥148.8 to the dollar and ¥161.4 to the euro, impacting sales and profitability. Looking ahead, the company projects a decline in demand for fiscal 2024, with specific regional insights provided, such as a 12% decrease in Japanese market demand and a 3% increase in North America. Despite challenges, Komatsu remains optimistic about future growth, particularly in the construction and mining equipment sectors, with ongoing investments in technology and market expansion.

Komatsu Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Komatsu Ltd. demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, robust profitability, and efficient cash flow generation. The company maintains a stable financial structure with moderate leverage and a solid equity base, though careful monitoring of increasing debt levels is advised.

Income Statement

Positive

Komatsu Ltd. demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability. The Gross Profit Margin for 2025 is 32.21%, with an impressive Net Profit Margin of 10.71%. The Revenue Growth Rate from 2024 to 2025 is 6.19%, showcasing a consistent upward trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 16.16% and 20.11%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency and robust earnings performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a stable financial structure with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.38, reflecting moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 13.84%, suggesting efficient use of equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 54.98%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets, though the increase in total debt warrants careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

Positive

Komatsu's cash flow generation is robust, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 34.23% from 2024 to 2025, reflecting improved capital efficiency. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.18, indicating strong cash generation relative to net profits. A Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.71 supports the company's capability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.05T	4.10T	3.87T	3.54T	2.80T	2.19T
Gross Profit	1.30T	1.32T	1.21T	1.04T	779.58B	581.05B
EBITDA	807.16B	825.44B	787.01B	658.49B	473.14B	309.67B
Net Income	420.71B	439.26B	393.43B	326.40B	224.93B	106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.85T	5.77T	5.64T	4.88T	4.35T	3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	448.89B	385.57B	403.18B	289.98B	316.67B	243.13B
Total Debt	1.43T	1.22T	1.27T	1.12T	1.01T	965.85B
Total Liabilities	2.58T	2.43T	2.44T	2.20T	1.99T	1.77T
Stockholders Equity	3.10T	3.17T	3.03T	2.54T	2.23T	1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	268.17B	311.31B	231.83B	22.94B	138.01B	172.58B
Operating Cash Flow	463.02B	517.17B	434.78B	206.47B	300.97B	354.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-216.93B	-210.67B	-204.42B	-169.52B	-143.57B	-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-247.76B	-321.42B	-122.04B	-66.61B	-93.87B	-199.67B

Komatsu Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price5550.00

Price Trends

50DMA

5186.75

Positive

100DMA

4930.93

Positive

200DMA

4579.16

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

146.13

Negative

RSI

56.38

Neutral

STOCH

76.23

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6301, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5550 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5418.40, above the 50-day MA of 5186.75, and above the 200-day MA of 4579.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 146.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6301.

Komatsu Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6432	―	¥288.02B	10.49	―	3.13%	0.31%	-11.04%
6301	―	¥5.00T	11.72	―	3.28%	3.12%	8.28%
6395	―	€134.06B	23.33	3.22%	2.76%	9.20%	-40.76%
6305	―	$998.61B	14.66	10.54%	3.74%	-2.72%	29.43%
6326	―	$2.38T	13.64	7.15%	2.43%	-6.12%	-32.56%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
7105	―	¥165.44B	62.44	―	1.55%	-6.01%	-90.78%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:6301

Komatsu Ltd.

5,550.00

1,702.34

44.24%

JP:6305

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co

5,168.00

1,952.18

60.71%

JP:6326

Kubota

2,058.50

143.99

7.52%

JP:6395

TADANO

1,090.50

138.25

14.52%

JP:6432

Takeuchi Mfg.Co., Ltd.

6,430.00

1,782.39

38.35%

JP:7105

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd.

1,545.00

398.87

34.80%

Komatsu Ltd. Corporate Events

Komatsu Ltd. Announces Progress in Share Buyback Program

Oct 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, revealing that it repurchased 2,165,800 shares for approximately 11.16 billion yen between September 1 and September 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 40 million shares, representing 4.3% of outstanding shares, by November 28, 2025, with a total budget of 100 billion yen. The buyback is conducted through the Tokyo Stock Exchange and reflects the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Sep 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, repurchasing 2,925,100 shares for approximately 14.5 billion yen from August 1 to August 31, 2025. This initiative is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 40 million shares, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen5300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Corrects Business Performance Presentation

Aug 6, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced corrections to its business performance presentation for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, specifically regarding projected tax rates for Japan. These corrections do not affect the overall sales and profit gains report, ensuring stakeholders that the company’s financial outlook remains stable.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Announces Progress in Share Buyback Initiative

Aug 1, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the status of its share buyback program, revealing that it repurchased 2,877,300 shares for approximately 14.1 billion yen between July 1 and July 31, 2025. This buyback is part of a broader initiative approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 40 million shares, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Continues Performance-Linked Remuneration System

Jul 29, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. announced the continuation of its performance-linked stock-based remuneration system for its directors and senior managerial employees. This system, which aligns with the company’s Strategic Growth Plan for 2025-2027, aims to enhance corporate value by incentivizing eligible persons based on performance indicators such as ROE, ROA, and sales growth. The plan includes structures like the Board Incentive Plan Trust and Employee Stock Ownership Plan Trust, designed to deliver shares or equivalent cash payments depending on the achievement of performance targets, thereby reinforcing Komatsu’s commitment to long-term growth and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Updates on Share Buyback Progress

Jul 29, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. has announced the status of its ongoing share buyback program, revealing that it has repurchased 2,725,500 shares for a total of 13,375,606,218 yen between July 1 and July 28, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 40 million shares, representing 4.3% of outstanding shares, with a total budget of 100 billion yen, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Komatsu Ltd. Reports Decline in Q1 2025 Financial Results

Jul 29, 2025

Komatsu Ltd. reported a decline in financial performance for the three months ended June 30, 2025, with net sales and net income attributable to the company decreasing by 5.2% and 16.9%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2024. The company also noted a significant drop in comprehensive income by 77.7% from the previous year, which may impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6301) stock is a Hold with a Yen4600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Komatsu Ltd. stock, see the JP:6301 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025