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Nippon Paint Holdings Co
(4612)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
¥1,266.00
▲(7.47% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthening financial performance—material margin expansion and improving free cash flow quality—tempered by a higher leverage profile and only moderate debt coverage from operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation appears reasonable (P/E ~14.6) with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The return to meaningful revenue growth indicates renewed demand across the group’s diversified coatings markets after a slower period. Sustained expansion would improve operating leverage, support reinvestment in products and customer relationships, and strengthen the company’s earnings base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Higher leverage leaves the group less financially flexible if growth or margins weaken. Although equity has expanded, the increase in absolute debt and debt-to-equity versus earlier years could constrain acquisitions, investment, or shareholder distributions while increasing the importance of sustained operating performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
The return to meaningful revenue growth indicates renewed demand across the group’s diversified coatings markets after a slower period. Sustained expansion would improve operating leverage, support reinvestment in products and customer relationships, and strengthen the company’s earnings base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nippon Paint Holdings Co (4612) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥2.89T
Dividend Yield1.29%
Average Volume (3M)3.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth16.22%
EPS Growth34.06%
CountryJP
Employees38,481
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)84.73
Shares Outstanding2,370,512,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,087,970
30 Day Avg. Volume3,238,126
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio16.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,440.00Price Target Upside22.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)83.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.01T
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. specializes in the manufacture of paints and advanced chemical products. Its extensive paint portfolio encompasses coatings for vehicles, including bumpers and plastic components; architectural paints for homes, com...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paint Holdings primarily makes money by selling paint and coating products and related coating solutions to customers across several end markets and geographies. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Decorative/architectural coatings: ...
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2024
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance with record revenue but a decline in operating profit. While there were positive signs in some regions like the Pacific and Indonesia, challenges in China and Europe highlighted difficulties in certain markets. The company remains optimistic about future quarters with strategic cost management and market expansion.Positive Updates
Record Q3 Revenue
Achieved a record Q3 revenue of JPY 405.6 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment.
Negative Updates
Decline in Operating Profit
Operating profit decreased by 1.3% year-on-year on a Tanshin basis and by 13.1% on a non-GAAP basis.
Read all updates
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q3 Revenue
Achieved a record Q3 revenue of JPY 405.6 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Nippon Paint Holdings, Yuichiro Wakatsuki, the company's President, provided guidance on future performance expectations. For Q4, the company anticipates a 15% increase in revenue and operating profit on a Tanshin basis, driven by improvements in operational efficiency and personnel optimization in China. Despite a weakening yen and challenging conditions in some regions like China, Turkey, and Europe, the company expects to exceed its initial full-year forecast by approximately 2 percentage points in revenue and 0.5 to 1 percentage point in operating profit. The company also highlighted strategic moves such as cost reviews in China, with expected margin improvements, and the contribution of its Indian business to consolidated earnings from Q4. Additionally, they discussed the acquisition of AOC and its expected positive impact on EPS, while also acknowledging the challenges and potential in different regional markets.Nippon Paint Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95T | 1.77T | 1.64T | 1.44T | 1.31T | 998.28B |
| Gross Profit | 833.85B | 750.24B | 657.45B | 576.13B | 487.53B | 378.32B |
| EBITDA | 386.48B | 347.78B | 243.53B | 213.34B | 154.16B | 118.26B |
| Net Income | 197.50B | 179.80B | 127.34B | 118.48B | 79.42B | 67.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.29T | 4.02T | 3.07T | 2.71T | 2.44T | 1.96T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 477.27B | 424.34B | 288.30B | 289.65B | 242.60B | 138.81B |
| Total Debt | 1.42T | 1.42T | 861.79B | 822.85B | 798.25B | 575.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.27T | 2.19T | 1.46T | 1.35T | 1.29T | 986.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00T | 1.80T | 1.59T | 1.36T | 1.15T | 959.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 228.84B | 145.01B | 118.40B | 154.10B | 74.91B | 32.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 274.68B | 187.53B | 167.40B | 189.75B | 112.35B | 67.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -61.92B | -321.99B | -148.11B | -115.97B | -165.11B | -102.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -102.45B | 254.73B | -37.38B | -38.66B | 145.77B | -62.31B |
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Technical Analysis
Positive
1178.00
Price Trends
1188.81
Positive
1119.96
Positive
1074.13
Positive
Market Momentum
16.21
Negative
64.98
Neutral
93.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4612, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1178 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1165.47, below the 50-day MA of 1188.81, and above the 200-day MA of 1074.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4612.
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | ¥56.06B | 9.43 | ― | 5.04% | -3.74% | 19.78% | |
74 Outperform | ¥2.89T | 14.71 | 10.80% | 1.29% | 16.22% | 34.06% | |
74 Outperform | ¥153.57B | 9.30 | 8.48% | 0.38% | 8.62% | 68.78% | |
69 Neutral | ¥475.36B | 8.35 | 12.05% | 4.38% | 6.29% | 101.67% | |
67 Neutral | ¥485.42B | 17.13 | 10.26% | 3.93% | 2.53% | -14.17% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | ¥44.79B | 17.97 | ― | 3.67% | 25.27% | -70.96% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:4612
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Nippon Paint Holdings Co Corporate Events
Nippon Paint Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook But Trims Profit Forecasts
Aug 7, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, lifting expected revenue to ¥2 trillion from ¥1.92 trillion while keeping operating profit unchanged at ¥283 billion....
Nippon Paint Lifts First-Half Earnings and Confirms Growth Outlook for 2026
Aug 7, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings reported strong results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 20.1% year on year to ¥1.02 trillion and operating profit climbing 29.8% to ¥152.3 billion. Profit attributable to owners of the pa...
Nippon Paint Confirms EUR 7.5 Billion Bid for Akzo Nobel Decorative Paints Unit
Jul 13, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has confirmed that it submitted a proposal to acquire Akzo Nobel’s decorative paints business, based in the Netherlands, for EUR 7.5 billion. The move, if completed, would significantly expand Nippon Paint’s prese...
Nippon Paint Reveals Parent Nipsea’s Ownership and Capital Structure
Jun 30, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has disclosed the fiscal 2025 financial results and shareholding details of its parent company, Nipsea International Limited, based in Hong Kong. Nipsea’s capital stands at HK$60,000 million, and its ordinary shares tot...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.