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True Data Inc. (4416) AI Stock Analysis

1 Followers
JP:4416

True Data Inc.

(TSE/TYO:4416)

Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:JPY 378.00â–²(10.53% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:08/20/26

The company's excellent financial health—marked by strong growth, zero debt, and high cash conversion—is the primary driver of the score. However, persistent technical weakness with the stock trading below all major moving averages and negative MACD significantly weighs on the outlook. The moderate valuation provides some support but lacks a dividend cushion.

Positive Factors
Revenue GrowthStrong multi-year revenue expansion indicates that True Data has been enlarging its business base, while the 2026 re-acceleration suggests renewed demand after a weaker prior year. Continued top-line growth can support operating leverage, product investment, and broader competitive relevance over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Modest Net MarginsAlthough profitability has recovered from the earlier loss, a net margin of roughly 4.3% leaves limited room to absorb cost increases or execution setbacks. The sharp variation across years also suggests earnings quality is not yet consistently strong, which may constrain durable profit compounding until efficiency improves.

True Data Inc. (4416) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%JP:4416-56.38%EWJ+16.06%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 1.66B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
14.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
21.1
Beta (1Y)
0.32
Revenue Growth
23.07%
EPS Growth
2166.40%
Country
Japan
Employees
93
Sector
Technology
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Software - Services

True Data Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

True Data Inc. operates an outsourcing contracting to a marketing platform for consumer purchasing data analysis solutions in Japan. The company offers POS/ID-POS and purchasing behavior analysis solutions for consumer goods manufacturers, and retail...

True Data Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+18% YoY) and expanding margins (gross profit margin at 56%) are offset slightly by historical net income volatility. A debt-free balance sheet and robust cash flow conversion (91% of net income) support a high score.

Income Statement

85Very Positive

Balance Sheet

90Very Positive

Cash Flow

80Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.95B1.87B1.55B1.59B1.44B1.31B
Gross Profit1.05B1.05B879.64M901.35M755.07M644.11M
EBITDA169.12M167.43M95.07M122.05M198.36M161.69M
Net Income78.60M80.51M13.23M60.00M34.00M15.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.52B1.53B1.36B1.36B1.28B1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments852.07M971.08M859.56M937.53M879.05M847.38M
Total Debt005.48M35.28M63.11M93.47M
Total Liabilities353.30M370.16M281.99M314.95M307.86M372.35M
Stockholders Equity1.17B1.16B1.08B1.05B970.39M925.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0172.77M21.84M115.63M126.25M132.21M
Operating Cash Flow0189.05M37.15M127.53M138.66M137.01M
Investing Cash Flow0-74.20M-104.91M-58.81M-87.66M-56.53M
Financing Cash Flow0-2.87M-10.22M-10.23M-19.34M332.87M

True Data Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price342.00

Price Trends

50DMA395.48Negative
100DMA408.18Negative
200DMA452.05Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-15.80Positive
RSI25.96Positive
STOCH20.93Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4416, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 342.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 376.70, below the 50-day MA of 395.48, and below the 200-day MA of 452.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.96 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4416.

True Data Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:4416 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3984JP:398476OutperformJPY 21.19B13.68―1.74%15.59%6.88%
JP:5574JP:557472OutperformJPY 20.59B18.39――27.68%126.99%
JP:4418JP:441869NeutralJPY 15.27B17.58――4.63%97.91%
JP:4416JP:441669NeutralJPY 1.67B21.06――23.07%2166.40%
Sector *61Neutral$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
JP:4819JP:481943NeutralJPY 99.48B-32.36-4.20%2.14%2.19%-196.12%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-60%-40%-20%0%20%JP:4416JP:4819JP:3984JP:4418JP:5574Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:4416 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4416True Data Inc.342.00-464.00-57.57%
JP:4819Digital Garage 2196.00-827.59-27.37%
JP:3984User Local, Inc.1380.00-534.86-27.93%
JP:4418Japan Data Science Consortium Co Ltd.936.00-580.00-38.26%
JP:5574ABEJA,Inc.1970.00-688.00-25.88%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2026