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Paycloud Holdings Inc. (4015) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4015

Paycloud Holdings Inc.

(TSE/TYO:4015)

Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:JPY 366.00▲(3.39% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/11/26

The score is held back mainly by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages and negative momentum) and mixed financial quality due to margin compression and a sharp deterioration in 2026 cash flow. These are partially offset by improved balance sheet leverage and a moderate valuation (P/E ~13.17) following the return to profitability.

Positive Factors
Revenue ScalingThe substantial expansion in revenue demonstrates that Paycloud has built a materially larger business over several years, while the return to consistent profitability indicates improving commercial execution. Continued scale can broaden the earnings base and support reinvestment over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow DeteriorationThe sharp decline in operating and free cash flow weakens the quality of reported earnings and reduces internally generated funding for growth. If cash conversion remains below accounting profit, the company may have less flexibility to invest, repay obligations, or absorb future operating volatility.

Paycloud Holdings Inc. (4015) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:4015-30.04%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 5.40B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
40.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
13.2
Beta (1Y)
1.05
Revenue Growth
8.88%
EPS Growth
191.06%
Country
Japan
Employees
301
Sector
Technology
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Specialty Business Services

Paycloud Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Paycloud Holdings Inc. provides technology solutions in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Cashless Service Business, Digital Signage Related Business, Solution Business, and Other Businesses segments. The company provides end-user se...

Paycloud Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and a clear turnaround to consistent profitability, alongside improved leverage and equity growth. However, profitability remains thin (net margin ~3.8% in 2026), gross margin has compressed materially, and cash flow quality is a key concern given the sharp 2026 drop in operating/free cash flow.

Income Statement

64Positive

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

45Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMAug 2026Aug 2025Aug 2024Aug 2023Aug 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.14B11.14B10.23B6.85B4.48B1.17B
Gross Profit4.06B4.06B3.75B3.01B2.30B747.52M
EBITDA1.31B1.31B1.19B696.26M497.63M-123.23M
Net Income418.90M418.90M143.75M74.15M114.13M-1.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.33B9.33B9.54B8.26B4.40B4.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.83B3.83B4.37B3.23B1.49B1.09B
Total Debt1.71B1.71B1.77B1.84B1.26B1.93B
Total Liabilities4.59B4.59B5.01B4.05B2.24B2.61B
Stockholders Equity4.74B4.74B4.53B4.22B2.16B1.43B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0195.31M1.39B1.16B542.00M-226.96M
Operating Cash Flow0227.87M1.41B1.16B561.86M-218.22M
Investing Cash Flow0-452.02M-272.80M-19.77M-87.64M-194.09M
Financing Cash Flow0-312.68M10.99M121.07M-80.73M-96.72M

Paycloud Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price354.00

Price Trends

50DMA502.12Negative
100DMA516.62Negative
200DMA493.19Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-47.21Positive
RSI28.97Positive
STOCH19.89Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4015, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 354.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 475.15, below the 50-day MA of 502.12, and below the 200-day MA of 493.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -47.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.97 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4015.

Paycloud Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:4015 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:9629JP:962981OutperformJPY 29.75B15.21―6.04%8.61%30.21%
JP:4477JP:447773OutperformJPY 36.32B15.49―1.61%36.14%304.76%
JP:3835JP:383567NeutralJPY 15.52B15.55―4.38%1.86%-12.57%
JP:5588JP:558865NeutralJPY 6.72B27.78―0.62%25.25%-49.30%
Sector *61Neutral$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
JP:5027JP:502759NeutralJPY 45.30B34.83―0.27%28.94%-29.21%
JP:4015JP:401553NeutralJPY 5.79B13.17――8.88%191.06%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%JP:4015JP:3835JP:4477JP:5027JP:5588JP:9629Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:4015 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4015Paycloud Holdings Inc.354.00-153.00-30.18%
JP:3835eBASE Co., Ltd.341.00-103.95-23.36%
JP:4477BASE, Inc.310.00-32.79-9.57%
JP:5027AnyMind Group Inc.730.00-20.61-2.75%
JP:5588Fast Accounting Co.,Ltd.600.00-673.23-52.88%
JP:9629PCA Corporation1570.00-146.91-8.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026