HotLand Co., Ltd. (3196) AI Stock Analysis

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HotLand Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3196)

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Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,613.00▼(-2.54% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened 2025 fundamentals (sharp margin compression, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow). Technical indicators are broadly neutral and do not offset the fundamental softness, while valuation is demanding (high P/E with a low dividend yield), increasing risk if profitability does not recover.

Positive Factors

Steady Revenue GrowthSteady revenue expansion indicates continued demand recovery and business growth across recent years. Sustained top-line progress can support store development, brand investment, and operating scale, providing a durable foundation even though current profitability has weakened.

Negative Factors

Sharp Margin CompressionThe sharp decline in profitability materially reduces earnings resilience and leaves less room to absorb further cost pressure. Because gross margin stayed stable, the deterioration appears below gross profit, making expense control and operating efficiency central to the recovery outlook.

HotLand Co., Ltd. (3196) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 43.12B
Dividend Yield: 0.79%
Average Volume (3M): 98.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.8
Beta (1Y): 0.22
Revenue Growth: 8.98%
EPS Growth: 18.98%
Country: Japan
Employees: 1,099
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Restaurants

HotLand Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HOTLAND Co.,Ltd. operates a diverse portfolio of dining establishments across Japan and internationally. Its ventures also encompass the creation and management of Takoyaki outlets, various specialty retail concepts, and bar venues. Furthermore, the...

HotLand Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has grown steadily and gross margin is stable, but 2025 fundamentals weakened notably: net margin dropped to ~0.8%, leverage rose (debt-to-equity ~1.04), and free cash flow turned negative (~-¥1.3B). The margin compression and cash flow reversal are the main drags despite top-line resilience.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

52Neutral

Cash Flow

41Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	52.05B	51.04B	46.13B	38.71B	32.16B	29.68B
Gross Profit	29.04B	28.64B	25.87B	22.16B	18.56B	18.07B
EBITDA	3.53B	3.77B	4.28B	3.10B	3.29B	4.40B
Net Income	592.63M	405.40M	1.85B	1.02B	1.36B	2.08B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.59B	33.46B	29.03B	24.27B	22.06B	21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.69B	4.81B	3.73B	2.86B	3.34B	3.16B
Total Debt	12.83B	11.78B	7.61B	6.16B	4.87B	5.39B
Total Liabilities	23.31B	21.27B	16.49B	13.51B	11.38B	12.19B
Stockholders Equity	11.47B	11.34B	11.84B	10.28B	10.20B	8.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-1.31B	1.08B	709.68M	1.23B	3.63B
Operating Cash Flow	0	2.60B	3.95B	2.94B	2.90B	5.15B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-5.01B	-3.76B	-2.68B	-1.84B	-2.40B
Financing Cash Flow	0	3.50B	645.82M	-740.75M	-909.35M	-1.82B

HotLand Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price1655.00

Price Trends

50DMA1634.44Positive

100DMA1622.99Positive

200DMA1720.31Negative

Market Momentum

MACD4.62Negative

RSI55.17Neutral

STOCH73.77Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3196, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1655.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1626.75, above the 50-day MA of 1634.44, and below the 200-day MA of 1720.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3196.

HotLand Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3196 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:3547	76Outperform	JPY 20.99B	52.80	―	0.77%	62.78%	-57.81%
JP:2705	70Outperform	JPY 74.66B	62.44	―	0.19%	17.31%	8.06%
JP:3561	65Neutral	JPY 45.29B	32.13	11.67%	1.48%	6.56%	-29.50%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
JP:9828	51Neutral	JPY 54.90B	18.56	―	2.25%	28.58%	-34.37%
JP:3196	48Neutral	JPY 42.97B	50.81	―	0.79%	8.98%	18.98%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:3196 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:3196	HotLand Co., Ltd.	1655.00	-401.12	-19.51%
JP:3561	CHIKARANOMOTO HOLDINGS Co	1484.00	135.93	10.08%
JP:2705	OOTOYA Holdings Co., Ltd.	10480.00	4768.41	83.49%
JP:3547	Kushikatsu Tanaka Holdings Co.	1936.00	-232.78	-10.73%
JP:9828	Genki Sushi Co., Ltd.	3110.00	137.57	4.63%

HotLand Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

HotLand Holdings Delivers Higher Sales and Strong Profit Recovery in First Half 2026

Aug 14, 2026

HotLand Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥26.8 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, an 8.3 percent increase year on year. Despite higher sales, operating profit fell 15.3 percent to ¥890 million, while ordinary profit surged 68....

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

HotLand Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis