Key Coffee Inc. (2594) AI Stock Analysis

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Key Coffee Inc.

(TSE/TYO:2594)

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Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:JPY 2,042.00▼(-0.34% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/17/26

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (negative operating cash flow and consistently negative free cash flow in recent years) alongside sharply higher leverage, despite strong recent revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive momentum. Valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E and only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Accelerating revenue growthThe sharp acceleration in revenue indicates stronger demand, pricing, distribution, or product activity. Sustained top-line expansion can improve operating leverage and support investment, provided growth converts into healthier margins and cash flow.

Negative Factors

Persistent weak cash generationRepeated negative operating and free cash flow shows that reported earnings are not reliably converting into liquidity. Continued funding of investment or working capital through the balance sheet could constrain flexibility and increase financing dependence.

Key Coffee Inc. (2594) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 44.26B
Dividend Yield: 0.68%
Average Volume (3M): 96.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.3
Beta (1Y): 0.12
Revenue Growth: 17.58%
EPS Growth: 135.72%
Country: Japan
Employees: 1,019
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Packaged Foods

Key Coffee Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Founded in Tokyo, Japan, in 1920, Key Coffee Inc. cultivates coffee on plantations throughout Japan. The company is also responsible for manufacturing and distributing various coffee and related items.

How the Company Makes Money

Key Coffee’s primary monetization model is selling coffee-related products and services. The company generates revenue mainly from (1) product sales of coffee and related beverage/food offerings through relevant distribution channels (e.g., wholesale...

Key Coffee Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong, accelerating revenue growth (+17.2% in 2026 vs. +5.4% in 2025), but profitability is very thin (2025 net margin ~0.44%, EBIT margin <1%) and gross margin has compressed versus 2022. Balance sheet risk increased as debt rose sharply by 2026 (¥17.9B vs. ¥8.7B in 2025), while cash flow is the largest concern: operating cash flow is negative in multiple recent years and free cash flow is consistently negative (2023–2026), indicating weak cash conversion and higher funding pressure.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

55Neutral

Cash Flow

28Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	96.52B	93.07B	77.78B	73.80B	63.30B	55.68B
Gross Profit	17.32B	16.22B	14.31B	14.93B	13.93B	13.96B
EBITDA	2.29B	2.25B	1.66B	1.75B	1.22B	1.38B
Net Income	1.29B	989.00M	343.00M	181.00M	173.00M	743.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	79.38B	78.52B	58.36B	54.83B	51.77B	43.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.47B	5.28B	5.08B	4.67B	4.12B	5.44B
Total Debt	19.37B	17.90B	8.73B	5.52B	3.44B	399.00M
Total Liabilities	46.67B	46.26B	27.27B	23.86B	21.23B	12.94B
Stockholders Equity	32.19B	31.77B	30.77B	30.67B	30.25B	30.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-5.04B	-2.19B	-489.00M	-3.87B	401.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0	-3.38B	-1.34B	481.00M	-3.10B	861.00M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-5.26B	-1.08B	-1.69B	-973.00M	-727.00M
Financing Cash Flow	0	8.83B	2.83B	1.74B	2.76B	-466.00M

Key Coffee Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price2049.00

Price Trends

50DMA2001.83Positive

100DMA1992.39Positive

200DMA1980.38Positive

Market Momentum

MACD18.29Negative

RSI58.19Neutral

STOCH84.42Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2594, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2049.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2012.90, above the 50-day MA of 2001.83, and above the 200-day MA of 1980.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2594.

Key Coffee Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

JP:2594 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:2201	76Outperform	JPY 204.31B	11.95	12.47%	2.76%	3.34%	-0.81%
JP:2208	75Outperform	JPY 73.27B	11.44	―	1.46%	7.47%	27.86%
JP:2209	66Neutral	JPY 28.84B	11.52	―	1.74%	1.80%	-27.32%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
JP:2207	58Neutral	JPY 55.44B	19.32	―	2.21%	2.95%	9.39%
JP:2594	52Neutral	JPY 44.24B	41.27	―	0.68%	17.58%	135.72%
JP:2211	47Neutral	JPY 62.38B	52.34	―	1.26%	5.76%	-38.25%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:2594 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:2594	Key Coffee Inc.	2049.00	78.90	4.00%
JP:2201	Morinaga & Co	2441.50	-57.17	-2.29%
JP:2207	Meito Sangyo Co., Ltd.	3395.00	1229.91	56.81%
JP:2208	Bourbon Corporation	3005.00	613.23	25.64%
JP:2209	Imuraya Group Co., Ltd.	2188.00	-303.73	-12.19%
JP:2211	Fujiya Co., Ltd.	2383.00	-203.47	-7.87%

Key Coffee Inc. Corporate Events

Key Coffee Issues Technical Corrections to FY2026 Consolidated Results

Jun 25, 2026

Key Coffee Inc. has announced a partial correction to its previously released consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, prepared under Japanese GAAP. The revisions relate to the aggregation method used in the Consolidat...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Key Coffee Inc. AI Stock Analysis