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Jefferson Capital, Inc.
(NASDAQ:JCAP)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▼(-3.93% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality and elevated leverage risk despite strong reported profitability. Offsetting these concerns are constructive technical momentum and an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend), while the latest earnings call was broadly positive on collections, ERC growth, and leverage improvement but noted meaningful expense and deployment/execution pressures.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and profitability
JCAP has expanded revenue substantially while maintaining high profitability, indicating meaningful earnings power in its debt-purchasing and collections model. Strong margins can support portfolio investment, operating resilience, and continued growth if collection performance remains durable.
Negative Factors
Severe deterioration in cash-flow generation
The sharp collapse in operating and free cash flow creates uncertainty about earnings conversion and liquidity, even alongside strong reported profitability. If cash collection timing or portfolio economics do not normalize, reduced internally generated funding could constrain purchases and increase financing reliance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and profitability
JCAP has expanded revenue substantially while maintaining high profitability, indicating meaningful earnings power in its debt-purchasing and collections model. Strong margins can support portfolio investment, operating resilience, and continued growth if collection performance remains durable.
Read all positive factors
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.10B
Dividend Yield5.03%
Average Volume (3M)256.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth72.54%
EPS Growth35.16%
CountryUS
Employees1,120
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.66
Shares Outstanding57,425,537
10 Day Avg. Volume281,365
30 Day Avg. Volume256,760
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio2.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.67Price Target Upside35.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$708.74M
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jefferson Capital, Inc. is a company that specializes in financial recovery and debt resolution services, operating across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. Its primary business involves acquiring large bundles of c...
How the Company Makes Money
JCAP primarily makes money by purchasing portfolios of charged-off consumer debt at a discount to their stated (face) value and then collecting more than it paid for those receivables over time. Its key revenue and cash-generation driver is the di...
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements — double-digit growth in collections, deployments and revenue; record forward-flow commitments; improved leverage; best-in-class cash efficiency; product and geographic expansion; and shareholder returns (dividend and buyback). These positives are balanced by notable cost pressures driven by rising legal channel activity and IPO-related stock compensation, timing mismatches in certain recovery types (notably some auto deficiency and repossession cases), and the requirement to deploy material capital (~$565M) to replace runoff with only $312M currently contracted for the next 12 months. Overall, the favorable growth, efficiency, liquidity and momentum (including the July deployment milestone and auto expansion) outweigh the operating cost and timing challenges, yielding a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Collections Growth
Collections rose 18% year-over-year to $301 million, driven by strong deployments in 2024–2025 and sizable contributions from recent portfolio purchases (Bluestem: $41M; Conn's: $24M).
Negative Updates
Operating Expense Increase
Operating expenses rose to $95 million, up 46% year-over-year (or +35% when adjusting prior year for IPO-related items and excluding stock-based compensation), driven primarily by higher court costs from increased legal activity and noncash stock-based compensation from the IPO.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Collections Growth
Collections rose 18% year-over-year to $301 million, driven by strong deployments in 2024–2025 and sizable contributions from recent portfolio purchases (Bluestem: $41M; Conn's: $24M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company gave no formal forward-looking numerical guidance but outlined clear targets and expectations and reported key metrics: Q2 collections were $301M (+18% YoY) with deployments of $152M (+21% YoY) and estimated remaining collections (ERC) of $3.4B (+18% YoY), of which $1.1B is expected to be collected in the next 12 months and 46% of ERC through 2027 (ERC includes $218M Bluestem and $83M Conn’s distressed). Management said roughly $565M of deployments would be needed to replace 12‑month runoff, noted record forward flows of $480.7M (with $312M contracted for the next 12 months), and highlighted a July deployment month of $185M and an inaugural, initially modest entry into Mexico. Financial targets and outcomes cited include revenue $178M (+16% YoY), adjusted cash EBITDA $226M (+12% YoY), adjusted EPS $0.77, changes in recoveries $9M, operating expenses $95M (up 46% YoY; +35% ex‑IPO items), adjusted pretax income $59M (adjusted pretax ROE 51.6%), a cash efficiency ratio of 72.2% (67.8% excluding Bluestem/Conn’s; expect high‑60s ex‑those), net debt/adjusted cash EBITDA 1.71x (long‑term target 2.0–2.5x), RCF capacity $1.15B with $226M drawn (plus $300M drawn to repay notes), a $0.24 quarterly dividend (4.8% annualized) and a tactical $59M repurchase (3M shares, ~5%).Jefferson Capital, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2019 | Dec 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 659.62M | 613.29M | 433.30M | 323.07M | 45.09M | 31.21M |
| Gross Profit | 544.66M | 415.58M | 308.40M | 238.44M | 41.10M | 29.50M |
| EBITDA | 258.67M | 329.47M | 158.06M | 121.22M | 59.17M | 60.01M |
| Net Income | 155.02M | 187.97M | 105.30M | 111.52M | 44.41M | 54.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.08B | 2.09B | 1.65B | 1.12B | 812.78M | 590.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.41M | 47.55M | 35.51M | 14.37M | 3.28M | 8.71M |
| Total Debt | 1.41B | 1.71B | 1.19B | 770.93M | 202.79M | 24.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.61B | 1.27B | 811.78M | 223.90M | 42.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 476.19M | 476.13M | 382.53M | 274.79M | 588.87M | 547.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 220.06M | 267.73M | 162.00M | 118.99M | -180.21M | -281.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 221.14M | 268.81M | 168.21M | 120.22M | -13.63M | -6.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -340.98M | -401.94M | -542.37M | -403.41M | -321.31M | -241.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 98.02M | 149.70M | 388.82M | 289.86M | -4.17M | 34.97M |
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
21.86
Price Trends
20.82
Negative
19.21
Negative
19.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Positive
33.28
Neutral
14.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JCAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.47, above the 50-day MA of 20.82, and above the 200-day MA of 19.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JCAP.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Risk Analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $6.48B | 8.32 | 23.07% | 7.58% | 6.93% | 19.96% | |
67 Neutral | $739.60M | 2.62 | 4.56% | 10.10% | -1.89% | -26.81% | |
65 Neutral | $1.10B | 7.17 | 33.84% | 5.03% | 72.54% | 35.16% | |
56 Neutral | $731.88M | -2.90 | -26.80% | ― | 12.25% | -388.78% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
52 Neutral | $87.27M | -0.27 | -7.18% | 20.02% | -27.36% | -220.29% |
* General Sector Average
JCAP
Jefferson Capital, Inc.
19.08
2.30
13.73%
PRAA
Pra Group
19.49
4.28
28.14%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
55.39
3.43
6.60%
YRD
Yiren Digital
0.95
-5.38
-84.99%
FINV
FinVolution Group
3.03
-4.05
-57.21%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.