Jefferson Capital, Inc. AI Stock Analysis
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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) AI Stock Analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc.
(NASDAQ:JCAP)
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and cash conversion but tempered by high leverage and some recent margin/cash flow softening. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and ~4.9% yield), while technical signals are weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Earnings-call commentary was supportive overall, citing strong collections/deployments and liquidity, but noted reinvestment needs and auto credit headwinds.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.20B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.60%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 256.01K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 7.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.83
- Revenue Growth
- 64.32%
- EPS Growth
- 38.68%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,120
- Sector
- General
- Sector Strength
- 55
- Industry
- Financial - Credit Services
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jefferson Capital, Inc. is a company that specializes in financial recovery and debt resolution services, operating across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. Its primary business involves acquiring large bundles of cons...
How the Company Makes Money
JCAP primarily makes money by purchasing portfolios of charged-off consumer debt at a discount to their stated (face) value and then collecting more than it paid for those receivables over time. Its key revenue and cash-generation driver is the diffe...
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by record deployments, 35% collections growth, 23% ERC growth, 34% adjusted cash EBITDA growth, sector-leading cash efficiency, strong liquidity, and expanding opportunities in auto finance, Mexico, and bankruptcy services. The main challenges were auto finance credit and payment headwinds, deployment volatility, the short duration of ERC, and the limited near-term contribution expected from Mexico.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said 40% of the $3.6 billion September 30th ERC is expected to be collected through 2027, with $1.1 billion expected during the next 12 months; based on third-quarter average purchase price multiples, approximately $642 million would need to be deployed globally over the same time frame to replace this runoff and maintain current ERC levels, versus $267.5 million already contracted via forward flows. The target leverage ratio is in the range of 2x to 2.5x on a sustained basis, the going forward tax rate is a mid-20s number, and Bluestem’s majority financial impact is expected to take place over 2026, with 2027 being a thin tail. Management said Mexico will not be a significant contributor to the company's growth in the very near-term but has the potential to be a significant contributor over time, and auto is expected to continue to comprise a growing deployment set.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and cash generation are solid (TTM net margin ~23.5%, EBIT margin ~38.6%, and free cash flow ~1.0x net income), but the balance sheet is a key constraint with high leverage (TTM debt ~$1.54B vs equity ~$518M, ~3.0x). Margins and cash flow momentum have softened versus 2025 (lower net margin and weaker operating cash flow coverage), increasing sensitivity to any credit/earnings downturn.
Income Statement
76PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2019 | Dec 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 694.29M | 613.29M | 433.30M | 323.07M | 45.09M | 31.21M |
| Gross Profit | 581.76M | 415.58M | 308.40M | 238.44M | 41.10M | 29.50M |
| EBITDA | 303.56M | 329.47M | 158.06M | 121.22M | 59.17M | 60.01M |
| Net Income | 163.52M | 187.97M | 105.30M | 111.52M | 44.41M | 54.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.26B | 2.09B | 1.65B | 1.12B | 812.78M | 590.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.43M | 47.55M | 35.51M | 14.37M | 3.28M | 8.71M |
| Total Debt | 1.54B | 1.71B | 1.19B | 770.93M | 202.79M | 24.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.75B | 1.61B | 1.27B | 811.78M | 223.90M | 42.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.15M | 476.13M | 382.53M | 303.59M | 588.87M | 547.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 210.36M | 267.73M | 162.00M | 118.99M | -180.21M | -281.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.40M | 268.81M | 168.21M | 120.22M | -13.63M | -6.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -451.29M | -401.94M | -542.37M | -403.41M | -321.31M | -241.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 230.23M | 149.70M | 388.82M | 289.86M | -4.17M | 34.97M |
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JCAP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.20, above the 50-day MA of 20.22, and above the 200-day MA of 19.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JCAP.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Risk Analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksJefferson Capital, Inc. Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ECPG74Outperform
ENVA74Outperform- JCAP69Neutral
PRAA62Neutral
CACC58Neutral
CPSS58Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECPG | 74Outperform | $2.29B | 6.77 | 33.67% | ― | 29.59% | ― |
| ENVA | 74Outperform | $4.09B | 11.04 | 26.36% | ― | 20.08% | 33.74% |
| JCAP | 69Neutral | $1.12B | 7.40 | 34.18% | 4.60% | 64.32% | 38.68% |
| PRAA | 62Neutral | $447.43M | 2.87 | 15.39% | ― | 7.73% | ― |
| CACC | 58Neutral | $5.10B | 16.09 | 22.41% | ― | 1.68% | -18.24% |
| CPSS | 58Neutral | $213.48M | 8.74 | 7.48% | ― | 13.41% | 21.23% |
| Sector * | 55Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCAP | Jefferson Capital, Inc. | 20.88 | -0.13 | -0.60% | |
| CPSS | Consumer Portfolio Services | 9.53 | 1.49 | 18.53% | |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | 504.63 | 83.53 | 19.84% | |
| ECPG | Encore Capital Group | 109.49 | 61.42 | 127.77% | |
| PRAA | Pra Group Inc. | 11.84 | -4.17 | -26.05% | |
| ENVA | Enova International Inc. | 169.85 | 49.14 | 40.71% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2026