Jack In The Box (JACK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $497.48M
• Dividend Yield: 6.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: -6.02%
• EPS Growth: -136.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,606
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 18,858,295
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,027,319
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,030,709
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $35.67
• Price Target Upside: 34.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

Jack In The Box faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability, heavy leverage, and a negative equity position, which are major concerns. The technical indicators also suggest a bearish trend. Although the high dividend yield and strategic leadership change are positive, the overall outlook remains cautious due to economic pressures and operational challenges. The combination of these factors results in an overall stock score of 50.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Jack in the Box reported fiscal 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $97.2M, beating estimates and driven by better consolidated restaurant-level margins of 20%.

Leadership and Management

New CEO, Lance Tucker, has created a viable plan to strengthen the balance sheet and simplify the investment narrative.

Market Position

JIB can create significant shareholder value by establishing itself as a strong super-regional brand, dominating markets in California, Arizona, the Northwest, and parts of Texas.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

Store closures of 150-200 underperforming restaurants are a difficult but necessary move to improve system unit economics.

Revenue and Earnings Guidance

The company intends to reduce capex/share repurchases vs. prior plans, and will prioritize paying down debt.

Sales Performance

Preliminary 2Q same store sales reported a decline of -4.4%, missing the estimate due to lapping a previous campaign and technical issues.

Jack In The Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) is a prominent American fast-food restaurant chain headquartered in San Diego, California. Founded in 1951, the company operates and franchises Jack in the Box restaurants, which are primarily located on the West Coast of the United States. The chain is known for offering a diverse menu featuring burgers, chicken sandwiches, tacos, salads, and breakfast items, catering to a broad customer base with a focus on quick service and convenience.

How the Company Makes Money

Jack in the Box generates revenue primarily through the operation and franchising of its fast-food restaurants. The company earns money by selling food and beverages directly to customers in its company-owned locations. Additionally, a significant portion of its revenue comes from franchising, where the company collects royalties and fees from franchisees who operate Jack in the Box outlets. These franchise revenues include initial franchise fees, ongoing royalties based on a percentage of sales, and lease income from properties owned by Jack in the Box and leased to franchisees. The company's earnings are also influenced by strategic marketing initiatives, menu innovation, and operational efficiencies, which help drive customer traffic and sales.

Jack In The Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jack In The Box is experiencing financial challenges with declining revenue, decreasing profitability, and cash flow issues, alongside a heavily leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. These factors suggest the company faces significant financial pressure, requiring strategic measures to improve its financial stability and growth prospects.

Income Statement

The company has shown a declining revenue trend from $1.692 billion in 2023 to $1.571 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2024, indicating challenges in maintaining growth. Net profit margin has turned negative at -2.34% in TTM 2024, compared to 7.73% in 2023, showing a significant drop in profitability. The gross profit margin also decreased from 76.79% in 2023 to 27.70% in TTM 2024. While the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively stable, the overall income statement reflects concerns regarding decreasing revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The total liabilities exceed total assets, resulting in a negative equity position. The company's return on equity is not calculable due to negative equity, posing a risk to financial health. Despite steady total assets, the heavy leverage and negative equity position cast doubt on long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has significantly decreased from $215 million in 2023 to $68.8 million in TTM 2024, showing a concerning drop in operational efficiency. Free cash flow turned negative in TTM 2024 at -$46.7 million, compared to positive $140.1 million in 2023, indicating a decline in cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to negative net income, further highlighting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown
Sep 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.22B	1.69B	1.47B	1.14B	1.02B
	Gross Profit
911.20M	1.30B	433.31M	411.60M	354.47M
	EBIT
31.43M	278.75M	248.27M	289.95M	179.11M
	EBITDA
77.64M	334.07M	300.19M	327.98M	231.91M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-35.32M	130.83M	115.78M	165.75M	89.76M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
24.75M	157.65M	108.89M	55.35M	199.66M
	Total Assets
2.74B	3.00B	2.92B	1.75B	1.91B
	Total Debt
3.18B	3.16B	3.17B	2.23B	2.33B
	Net Debt
3.16B	3.01B	3.06B	2.18B	2.13B
	Total Liabilities
3.59B	3.72B	3.66B	2.57B	2.70B
	Stockholders Equity
-851.80M	-718.33M	-736.19M	-817.88M	-793.36M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	140.05M	116.41M	160.11M	124.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	215.01M	162.88M	201.12M	143.53M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	42.22M	-578.59M	-20.93M	29.12M
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-207.36M	478.18M	-343.55M	-87.29M

Jack In The Box Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 26.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JACK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.06, below the 50-day MA of 28.92, and below the 200-day MA of 40.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JACK.

Jack In The Box Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	73 Outperform	$2.45B	15.82	46.60%	2.18%	4.42%	48.23%
NATH	71 Outperform	$403.80M	17.04	-102.54%	2.02%	6.83%	24.77%
WEN	66 Neutral	$2.28B	13.36	90.40%	8.42%	2.18%	-5.15%
PBPB	61 Neutral	$254.65M	6.42	117.47%	―	-5.86%	672.77%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.58B	11.81	3.06%	3.99%	2.54%	-21.54%
LOCO	60 Neutral	$269.57M	10.55	9.68%	―	1.22%	6.59%
JACK	50 Neutral	$497.48M	―	4.15%	6.67%	-6.02%	-136.86%

Jack In The Box Corporate Events

Jack In The Box Approves Executive Stock Retention Awards

On April 26, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc.’s Compensation Committee approved stock retention awards for its executive leadership team, excluding the CEO, to be granted effective May 1, 2025. The awards, totaling $2.55 million, are split between restricted stock units and performance share units, with vesting conditions based on stock price performance over three years, aiming to incentivize and retain key executives.

Spark’s Take on JACK Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, JACK is a Neutral.

Jack In The Box faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability, heavy leverage, and a negative equity position, which are major concerns. The technical indicators also suggest a bearish trend. Although the high dividend yield and strategic leadership change are positive, the overall outlook remains cautious due to economic pressures and operational challenges. The combination of these factors results in an overall stock score of 50.

To see Spark’s full report on JACK stock, click here.

Jack In The Box Appoints Lance Tucker as CEO

On March 31, 2025, Jack in the Box Inc. announced the appointment of Lance Tucker as the new Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board, effective immediately. Tucker, who has extensive experience in corporate finance and previously held senior roles at companies like Davidson Hospitality Group and CKE Restaurants Holdings, will see his compensation package significantly increased as he takes on this leadership role. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen the company’s executive team and potentially enhance its market positioning.

Jack In The Box CEO Darin Harris Resigns

On February 20, 2025, Darin Harris announced his resignation as CEO and Director of Jack in the Box Inc. to pursue other opportunities, with Lance Tucker stepping in as interim principal executive officer effective February 24, 2025. Tucker, who has extensive experience in corporate finance and the restaurant industry, is expected to maintain the company’s competitive edge in the quick-service restaurant sector. Meanwhile, Dawn Hooper will serve as interim principal financial officer, continuing her long-standing tenure with the company. The Board has expressed confidence in Tucker’s ability to balance growth and financial goals during this leadership transition.