Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA (BMPS) AI Stock Analysis

112 Followers

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA

(Milan:BMPS)

Select Model

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:EUR 12.00▲(4.49% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/15/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong 2023–2025 profitability and better leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak-to-neutral technical momentum and a history of revenue and cash-flow volatility.

Positive Factors

Strong Recent ProfitabilityThe sharp improvement in profitability through 2023–2025 indicates that BMPS has restored meaningful earnings power after weaker earlier periods. High recent margins can strengthen internal capital generation, support investment in its domestic franchise, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Revenue and Earnings CyclicalityThe decline in revenue during 2025 and prior loss-making periods show that BMPS’s earnings remain sensitive to the banking cycle and operating conditions. This inconsistency makes recent high profitability less predictable and complicates planning for sustained earnings and capital generation.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA (BMPS) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Market Cap: EUR 33.21B
Dividend Yield: 7.49%
Average Volume (3M): 10.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
Beta (1Y): 1.57
Revenue Growth: 55.45%
EPS Growth: -10.50%
Country: Italy
Employees: 21,817
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Banks - Regional

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Co...

How the Company Makes Money

BMPS generates revenue mainly through traditional banking and related financial services. A primary source is net interest income: the bank earns interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as mortgages, consumer credit, and business le...

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has rebounded strongly in 2023–2025 with very high 2025 margins and improved leverage (debt-to-equity below 1.0). Offsetting this, results show meaningful cyclicality and inconsistency: revenue declined from 2024 to 2025, prior loss-making years (2020, 2022) remain in the record, and cash flows have been volatile despite solid 2025 operating/free cash flow.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

67Positive

Cash Flow

56Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.94B	4.74B	6.56B	6.01B	3.91B	3.86B
Gross Profit	8.53B	4.34B	4.20B	3.94B	3.29B	3.18B
EBITDA	4.28B	2.29B	1.66B	1.93B	-386.55M	503.95M
Net Income	3.97B	3.04B	1.95B	2.05B	-178.36M	309.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	245.90B	129.34B	122.60B	122.61B	120.24B	137.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.02B	15.02B	14.40B	15.58B	13.60B	23.05B
Total Debt	72.98B	11.47B	12.53B	12.94B	10.30B	12.74B
Total Liabilities	217.24B	116.11B	110.95B	112.63B	112.37B	131.69B
Stockholders Equity	26.40B	13.22B	11.65B	9.98B	7.86B	6.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.23B	1.62B	-860.42M	1.66B	8.32B	-662.86M
Operating Cash Flow	3.36B	1.74B	-792.00M	1.77B	8.38B	-551.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.27B	824.66M	39.15M	7.08M	44.09M	-69.07M
Financing Cash Flow	6.14B	-1.18B	-315.03M	-2.73M	2.37B	42.93M

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price11.48

Price Trends

50DMA11.39Positive

100DMA11.41Positive

200DMA9.71Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.10Negative

RSI58.47Neutral

STOCH85.07Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.98, above the 50-day MA of 11.39, and above the 200-day MA of 9.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMPS.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

IT:BMPS against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IT:CE	79Outperform	EUR 6.68B	12.32	12.18%	3.67%	-1.80%	-15.66%
IT:BAMI	76Outperform	EUR 20.31B	7.37	14.34%	7.18%	-4.14%	-19.23%
IT:BPE	76Outperform	EUR 27.60B	12.52	13.80%	4.85%	15.23%	1.44%
IT:BMPS	68Neutral	EUR 33.21B	8.38	16.75%	7.49%	55.45%	-10.50%
IT:UCG	66Neutral	EUR 111.98B	11.13	16.15%	4.02%	2.06%	8.72%
IT:ISP	62Neutral	EUR 103.61B	11.22	15.91%	5.99%	-5.74%	8.03%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IT:BMPS and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
IT:BMPS	Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA	11.48	4.74	70.31%
IT:UCG	UniCredit S.p.A	78.32	17.75	29.31%
IT:BAMI	Banco BPM S.p.A.	13.92	2.23	19.12%
IT:BPE	BPER Banca S.p.A.	13.65	3.90	40.03%
IT:CE	Credito Emiliano SPA Credem	20.46	7.48	57.60%
IT:ISP	Intesa Sanpaolo SpA	6.28	1.07	20.53%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 15, 2026

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA AI Stock Analysis