UniCredit SpA (UCG) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

UniCredit upgraded guidance, now targeting 2026 net profit of circa EUR 11.5bn excluding integration costs (well above EUR 11bn including them) and a year‑end CET1 of circa 15% (reported 14.3%; 14.5% excl. a 19bp Commerzbank mark; ~15% pro‑forma for Danish compromise; ~13% day‑one if consolidated early), and expects NII to accelerate in H2 with a structural hedge contribution of ~EUR 400m in 2026 (EUR 1.3bn cum. to 2028; EUR 2.4bn to 2030) on Euribor assumptions of ~2.3% for 2026 and ~2.6% for 2027–28; group cost‑of‑risk guidance remains 15–20bps (current 17bps, overlay stock EUR 1.6bn with ~EUR 70m used), adjusted revenues rose 13% q/q (10% H1) with core revenue +5% and underlying revenue +10%, adjusted net profit was EUR 3.1bn in Q2 / EUR 6.3bn H1 (adj. GOP/NOP >20% q/q; >15% H1), adj. EPS +28%, DPS and TBV per share +16%, RoTE 23% (Q2) / 24% (H1), quarterly organic capital generation ~85bps, costs improving (costs -2% excl. perimeter, non‑business costs -5%), top‑tier adjusted net revenues on RWA 8.7%, net NPE 1.4% (coverage 45.9%, default 0.8%); and on Commerzbank the group holds ~47.6% of shares (49.65% voting), has upgraded pre‑merger value creation to EUR 1.2bn by 2030 (EUR 350m revenue initiatives, EUR 1.4bn efficiencies confirmed, merger synergies ~EUR 800m) with an estimated initial capital impact of ~200bps if consolidated quickly.