FedEx (1FDX) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For CY 2026, FedEx expects consolidated revenue growth to be approximately 11%, including about 3 percentage points of assumed fuel price driven surcharge benefit, based on a CY 25 revenue baseline of approximately $82 billion; the June through December transition year is expected to deliver 10% revenue growth, an adjusted EPS range of $16.90 to $18.10 per diluted share with a midpoint of $17.50, $5.8 billion of adjusted operating income, 19% adjusted operating income growth, and an estimated $11.30 of adjusted EPS representing 20% year over year growth. The outlook assumes a low-single-digit volume decline within Ground Economy, a high-single-digit decline within international domestic services, CY 2026 CapEx of approximately $3.9 billion, a $475 million pension contribution with the plan 105% funded as of May 31, up to $1 billion of share repurchases during the remainder of CY 26, a $600 million FEC volume related revenue net of variable costs tailwind, a $3.7 billion FEC yield tailwind, a $2.6 billion base expense increase, an $800 million variable compensation headwind, a $200 million headwind from the new pilot agreement, and a $100 million benefit from removal of stranded cost; FedEx remains fully committed to realizing its targeted $6 billion adjusted free cash flow in CY 2029 and expects to remove about 30% of the remaining stranded costs this calendar year.