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Howmet Aerospace
(NYSE:HWM)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$251.00
â–¼(-4.94% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and free cash flow) and a bullish earnings call featuring raised guidance and continued capital returns. These positives are materially offset by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a stretched valuation (high P/E with minimal dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Broad-based organic growth across aerospace, fastening systems, gas turbines and spares indicates strong demand for Howmet’s engineered components. Raised revenue guidance reinforces that current expansion is supported by operating performance and should remain relevant over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Forged Wheels Margin Pressure
The pass-through effect creates a continuing near-term drag on segment profitability, even though Forged Wheels revenue grew. Management expects the dilution to persist for multiple quarters, which can limit consolidated margin improvement and reduce the benefit of otherwise solid demand.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Broad-based organic growth across aerospace, fastening systems, gas turbines and spares indicates strong demand for Howmet’s engineered components. Raised revenue guidance reinforces that current expansion is supported by operating performance and should remain relevant over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Howmet Aerospace Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business segments, giving insight into which areas are driving earnings and how effectively each segment is managed.
Highlights profitability across different business segments, giving insight into which areas are driving earnings and how effectively each segment is managed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHowmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$103.40B
Dividend Yield0.22%
Average Volume (3M)2.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.6
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth18.08%
EPS Growth35.49%
CountryUS
Employees25,430
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.67
Shares Outstanding398,801,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,501,729
30 Day Avg. Volume2,636,970
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.73
Price to Book (P/B)15.47
Price to Sales (P/S)10.04
P/FCF Ratio57.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$340.08Price Target Upside28.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)5.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.09B
Howmet Aerospace Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sector...
How the Company Makes Money
Howmet Aerospace makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling proprietary, high-specification components and systems to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers in the aerospace and transportation ecosystems, and by supporting t...
Howmet Aerospace Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: robust organic revenue growth (21% organic in Q2), significant EBITDA and margin expansion (+340 bps), very strong free cash flow, active share repurchases and dividend increase, and raised full‑year guidance. Key growth engines (Engine Products, Fastening Systems, gas turbines and spares) outperformed. The primary negatives are manageable near‑term margin dilution from aluminum pass‑through in Forged Wheels, integration headwinds and multi‑year capital and equipment lead times needed to fully scale Industrial Gas Turbine production. Management provided a clear plan for CapEx and integration with expected synergies in 2027. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue up 24% year-over-year in Q2 2026 (21% organic). First-half organic growth ~20%. Q3 revenue guide raised to $2.575B and full-year revenue guide increased to $10.05B (+ raised guidance).
Negative Updates
Forged Wheels Margin Dilution from Aluminum Pass‑Through
Forged Wheels revenue +14% but volumes down 8% year-over-year (sequential volume +7%). Higher aluminum pass-through diluted margins by ~360 basis points year-over-year; sequential EBITDA margin declined ~270 basis points. Management expects this dilutive margin impact to continue for at least a couple of quarters.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue up 24% year-over-year in Q2 2026 (21% organic). First-half organic growth ~20%. Q3 revenue guide raised to $2.575B and full-year revenue guide increased to $10.05B (+ raised guidance).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 revenue of $2.575 billion (±$10M), EBITDA of $830 million (±$5M) and adjusted EPS of $1.35 (±$0.01); it raised full‑year 2026 targets to revenue $10.05 billion (±$50M), EBITDA $3.23 billion (±$20M), adjusted EPS $5.27 (±$0.04) and free cash flow $1.9 billion (±$50M). They reiterated a ~90% target conversion of net income to free cash flow, said year‑end net debt/EBITDA should return to ~1.0x (Q2 ended at 1.4x), expect CapEx to exceed $500 million in 2026 with further increases in 2027, and plan continued capital returns (YTD repurchases $800M at an average $248/share, Q2 repurchases $300M, July $200M at $277 average, remaining authorization ≈$700M) plus a 17% quarterly dividend increase to $0.14; quarter‑end cash was $564M and Q2 free cash flow was $479M (H1 ≈$840M).Howmet Aerospace Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.12B | 8.25B | 7.43B | 6.64B | 5.66B | 4.97B |
| Gross Profit | 3.14B | 2.54B | 2.05B | 1.61B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | 2.75B | 2.27B | 1.84B | 1.47B | 1.10B | 853.00M |
| Net Income | 1.87B | 1.51B | 1.16B | 765.00M | 469.00M | 258.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.25B | 11.18B | 10.52B | 10.43B | 10.26B | 10.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 563.00M | 742.00M | 564.00M | 610.00M | 791.00M | 720.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.51B | 3.05B | 3.47B | 3.83B | 4.28B | 4.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.52B | 5.83B | 5.96B | 6.39B | 6.65B | 6.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.73B | 5.35B | 4.55B | 4.04B | 3.60B | 3.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.43B | 977.00M | 682.00M | 540.00M | 250.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.22B | 1.88B | 1.30B | 901.00M | 733.00M | 449.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -438.00M | -316.00M | -215.00M | -135.00M | 107.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -78.00M | -1.27B | -1.03B | -868.00M | -526.00M | -1.44B |
Howmet Aerospace Technical Analysis
Negative
264.04
Price Trends
274.53
Negative
266.33
Negative
245.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.43
Positive
29.50
Positive
43.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HWM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 264.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 268.94, below the 50-day MA of 274.53, and above the 200-day MA of 245.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.50 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HWM.
Howmet Aerospace Risk Analysis
Howmet Aerospace disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Howmet Aerospace reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Howmet Aerospace Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $11.78B | 31.03 | 18.00% | 0.32% | 15.65% | 78.52% | |
74 Outperform | $38.28B | 51.99 | 18.30% | 0.04% | 20.69% | 31.56% | |
72 Outperform | $20.93B | 39.20 | 20.69% | 0.17% | 10.54% | 22.56% | |
67 Neutral | $103.40B | 49.58 | 34.41% | 0.22% | 18.08% | 35.49% | |
67 Neutral | $20.44B | 36.68 | 21.75% | 0.37% | 22.35% | 41.77% | |
66 Neutral | $64.23B | 34.74 | -21.02% | 12.64% | 16.64% | 9.48% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HWM
Howmet Aerospace
231.53
52.92
29.63%
CW
Curtiss-Wright
572.71
91.75
19.08%
HEI
HEICO
316.10
-0.08
-0.02%
MOG.A
Moog
369.61
178.68
93.58%
TDG
Transdigm Group
1,145.14
-166.95
-12.72%
WWD
Woodward
339.27
102.81
43.48%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.