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Howmet Aerospace
(NYSE:HWM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$213.00
â–¼(-19.33% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/29/26
Strong financial performance (expanded margins and growing free cash flow) and a very upbeat earnings call with raised guidance and solid multi-year demand visibility are the main positives. These are offset by weak technical momentum (downtrend across key moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (high P/E and low yield), which together cap the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong growth and margin expansion
Revenue and profitability have expanded substantially since 2021, with net margin reaching approximately 21% TTM. This indicates stronger earnings power and operating execution, providing a durable base for reinvestment, debt management, and continued participation in aerospace demand.
Negative Factors
Capacity constraints may limit growth
Howmet’s growth opportunity is constrained by the operational complexity of adding engineers, production workers, and multiple plants. If capacity expansion cannot keep pace with customer demand, the company may defer revenue, dilute execution quality, or require elevated capital spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong growth and margin expansion
Revenue and profitability have expanded substantially since 2021, with net margin reaching approximately 21% TTM. This indicates stronger earnings power and operating execution, providing a durable base for reinvestment, debt management, and continued participation in aerospace demand.
Read all positive factors
Howmet Aerospace Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business segments, giving insight into which areas are driving earnings and how effectively each segment is managed.
Highlights profitability across different business segments, giving insight into which areas are driving earnings and how effectively each segment is managed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHowmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$82.13B
Dividend Yield0.24%
Average Volume (3M)3.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.1
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth22.02%
EPS Growth43.31%
CountryUS
Employees25,430
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.13
Shares Outstanding398,801,400
10 Day Avg. Volume4,629,126
30 Day Avg. Volume3,262,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.73
Price to Book (P/B)15.47
Price to Sales (P/S)10.04
P/FCF Ratio57.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda31.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$316.06Price Target Upside19.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.12B
Howmet Aerospace Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sector...
How the Company Makes Money
Howmet Aerospace makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling proprietary, high-specification components and systems to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers in the aerospace and transportation ecosystems, and by supporting t...
Howmet Aerospace Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with record organic growth, broad-based end-market expansion, higher margins and EPS, strong free cash flow, reduced leverage, increased capital returns, and raised 2026 guidance. Management also described substantial long-term demand visibility in aerospace, defense, gas turbines, and data centers. The principal challenges were lower Middle East travel, high fuel prices, uncertainty around defense budgets and contract timing, margin declines in Fastening Systems and Forged Wheels, the Engineered Structures revenue decline related to a divestiture, and the operational difficulty of expanding capacity quickly enough to meet demand.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Q3 revenue was $2.7 billion, up 29% year-over-year and up 25% organically. EBITDA was $879 million, up 43%, with a 32.5% margin. Margins increased 40 basis points sequentially, and year-over-year incrementals were 43% after the dampening effect of the CAM acquisition.
Negative Updates
Commercial Aerospace Travel and Middle East Headwinds
Management said Middle East travel was lower due to the Iran conflict and its fallout. Oil prices, including jet fuel and diesel, were described as especially high, and higher ticket prices could affect some travel schedules during the winter and into 2027.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Q3 revenue was $2.7 billion, up 29% year-over-year and up 25% organically. EBITDA was $879 million, up 43%, with a 32.5% margin. Margins increased 40 basis points sequentially, and year-over-year incrementals were 43% after the dampening effect of the CAM acquisition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4, Howmet envisages revenues to be approximately $2.75 billion plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA at $900 million plus or minus $5 million, and earnings per share at $1.50 plus or minus a penny; for the full year, guidance is revenues of $10.3 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA at $3.33 billion plus or minus $5 million, earnings per share at $5.50, plus or minus a penny, and free cash flow of $2 billion, plus or minus $50 million. The initial growth outlook for 2027 is 12% plus or minus half a percent, resulting in revenues of approximately $11.5 billion. Full-year sales growth is 25%, including a 22% organic growth so far this year, earnings per share growth is over 45%, and free cash flow of around $2 billion represents a cash margin of over 19%. Industrial gas turbine sales are expected to reach about $2.5 billion by the end of the decade, with growth from 2025 expected to reach two times in three years and maybe 2.5 times inside five years.Howmet Aerospace Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.73B | 8.25B | 7.43B | 6.64B | 5.66B | 4.97B |
| Gross Profit | 3.56B | 2.82B | 2.05B | 1.61B | 1.35B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | 3.01B | 2.39B | 1.84B | 1.47B | 1.10B | 853.00M |
| Net Income | 2.05B | 1.51B | 1.16B | 765.00M | 469.00M | 258.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.28B | 11.18B | 10.52B | 10.43B | 10.26B | 10.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 507.00M | 742.00M | 564.00M | 610.00M | 791.00M | 720.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.44B | 3.05B | 3.47B | 3.83B | 4.28B | 4.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.52B | 5.83B | 5.96B | 6.39B | 6.65B | 6.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.76B | 5.35B | 4.55B | 4.04B | 3.60B | 3.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.93B | 1.43B | 977.00M | 682.00M | 540.00M | 250.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.40B | 1.88B | 1.30B | 901.00M | 733.00M | 449.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.17B | -438.00M | -316.00M | -215.00M | -135.00M | 107.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -384.00M | -1.27B | -1.03B | -868.00M | -526.00M | -1.44B |
Howmet Aerospace Technical Analysis
Negative
264.04
Price Trends
230.52
Negative
253.91
Negative
248.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.35
Positive
42.74
Neutral
35.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HWM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 264.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 213.27, above the 50-day MA of 230.52, and above the 200-day MA of 248.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HWM.
Howmet Aerospace Risk Analysis
Howmet Aerospace disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Howmet Aerospace reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Howmet Aerospace Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $11.45B | 30.46 | 18.00% | 0.33% | 15.65% | 78.52% | |
74 Outperform | $38.73B | 53.68 | 18.30% | 0.04% | 20.69% | 31.56% | |
70 Outperform | $18.59B | 34.05 | 21.75% | 0.39% | 22.35% | 41.77% | |
68 Neutral | $82.13B | 40.12 | 36.71% | 0.24% | 22.02% | 43.31% | |
67 Neutral | $18.35B | 34.00 | 20.69% | 0.20% | 10.54% | 22.56% | |
66 Neutral | $65.00B | 35.68 | -22.31% | 12.64% | 16.64% | 9.48% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HWM
Howmet Aerospace
199.22
-6.30
-3.07%
CW
Curtiss-Wright
476.01
-118.77
-19.97%
HEI
HEICO
321.36
3.82
1.20%
MOG.A
Moog
350.67
146.60
71.84%
TDG
Transdigm Group
1,146.81
-161.70
-12.36%
WWD
Woodward
304.65
43.50
16.66%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.