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The Hershey Company (HSY)
NYSE:HSY

The Hershey Company (HSY) AI Stock Analysis

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HS

The Hershey Company

(NYSE:HSY)

73Outperform
Hershey's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, but tempered by technical signals and negative earnings guidance. While the company faces challenges from tariffs and rising costs impacting short-term earnings, its solid financial foundation and international growth offer long-term potential.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The Hershey Company's first quarter exceeded expectations due to better sales in North America and improved margins.
Portfolio Diversification
HSY continues to diversify its snacking portfolio through agreement to acquire LesserEvil, a better-for-you snack manufacturer.
Sales Growth
Retail sales for the Easter season showed strong growth, with a reported increase of at least 16%.
Negative Factors
Cocoa Cost and Supply
Pricing actions are expected to be slower to take hold and may not fully offset higher cocoa costs.
Guidance and Earnings
Analyst sees risk of a guidance cut due to the 10% tariff on imports, which could weigh on 2025 EPS by approximately $0.45.
Tariff Impact
The impact of tariffs is expected to result in significant financial implications if not mitigated, potentially affecting earnings in the second half of the year.

The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

The Hershey Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. It offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, meat snacks, bars and snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and protein bars. The company provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Paqui, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. It markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. The company was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Hershey Company generates revenue primarily through the manufacture, marketing, and sale of a broad range of confectionery products. Its key revenue streams include the sale of chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products to mass merchandisers, grocery stores, drug stores, and convenience stores globally. In addition to direct sales, Hershey's engages in licensing agreements and partnerships to expand its brand reach and product offerings. The company leverages strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio and market presence. Seasonal and holiday-themed products also contribute significantly to Hershey's earnings, as they capitalize on increased consumer demand during these periods.

The Hershey Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
EBIT by Segment
EBIT by Segment
Analyzes earnings before interest and taxes for each business segment, highlighting which areas are most profitable and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Chart InsightsHershey's North America Confectionary segment shows fluctuating EBIT with a recent decline, reflecting tariff and Cocoa cost pressures. Despite challenges, the international segment is outperforming expectations, bolstered by strong sales in Brazil and India. The North America Salty Snacks segment remains resilient, gaining market share despite headwinds. Earnings call highlights suggest optimism for future growth, particularly in seasonal chocolates and international markets, but caution is warranted due to potential unmitigated tariff impacts and a projected EPS decline in 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

The Hershey Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The Hershey Company demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency with high margins and a stable financial structure. Despite a recent dip in revenue and free cash flow growth, the company's overall financial health is robust, with manageable leverage and efficient cash flow management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The Hershey Company demonstrates strong profitability with consistently high gross and net profit margins. Despite a slight dip in total revenue from the previous year, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting strong operational efficiency. Revenue growth has been robust over the years, although it showed a minor decline recently.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company exhibits a stable financial structure with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is commendable, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio indicates a well-capitalized balance sheet, though there is room for improvement in reducing debt levels.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Hershey's cash flow management is strong, with robust operating cash flows and healthy free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio signifies effective cash conversion. However, there has been a slight decline in free cash flow growth recently, which warrants attention.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
11.20B11.16B10.42B8.97B8.15B
Gross Profit
5.30B5.00B4.50B4.05B3.70B
EBIT
2.90B2.56B1.68B1.61B1.38B
EBITDA
3.10B2.75B2.38B2.20B1.90B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.22B1.86B1.64B1.48B1.28B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
730.75M401.90M463.89M329.27M1.14B
Total Assets
12.95B11.90B10.95B10.41B9.13B
Total Debt
5.45B5.13B5.08B5.34B4.78B
Net Debt
4.72B4.72B4.62B5.01B3.64B
Total Liabilities
8.23B7.80B7.65B7.66B6.89B
Stockholders Equity
4.71B4.10B3.30B2.76B2.24B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.93B1.55B1.81B1.59B1.26B
Operating Cash Flow
2.53B2.32B2.33B2.08B1.70B
Investing Cash Flow
-960.31M-1.20B-787.38M-2.22B-531.28M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.30B-1.15B-1.42B-681.14M-499.23M

The Hershey Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price166.66
Price Trends
50DMA
169.37
Negative
100DMA
165.40
Positive
200DMA
175.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.49
Negative
RSI
51.02
Neutral
STOCH
61.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 166.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.25, below the 50-day MA of 169.37, and below the 200-day MA of 175.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HSY.

The Hershey Company Risk Analysis

The Hershey Company disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Hershey Company reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

The Hershey Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$87.72B25.1813.27%2.71%0.90%-14.60%
TRTR
76
Outperform
$2.29B28.4610.25%1.04%-6.00%-4.90%
HSHSY
73
Outperform
$33.09B20.1537.48%3.35%-5.91%-19.78%
CACAG
68
Neutral
$11.39B34.913.67%5.87%-3.15%-65.38%
64
Neutral
$8.89B14.715.02%174.26%3.57%3.84%
SJSJM
61
Neutral
$12.21B22.22-3.55%3.75%7.07%-181.54%
41
Neutral
$9.96M-43.58%-3.12%6.60%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HSY
The Hershey Company
166.66
-25.59
-13.31%
CAG
Conagra Brands
23.51
-5.66
-19.40%
SJM
JM Smucker
113.91
5.24
4.82%
RMCF
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
1.32
-2.22
-62.71%
TR
Tootsie Roll
34.00
5.71
20.18%
MDLZ
Mondelez International
67.80
-1.16
-1.68%

The Hershey Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -0.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced outlook with significant challenges posed by tariffs and rising Cocoa costs, which are being actively mitigated. However, strong performance in international markets and the sweets and salty snacks categories provide a counterbalance to these challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Seasonal Chocolate Performance
The company experienced strong growth in seasonal chocolates in the first half, driven by Easter and robust innovation plans for the second half, indicating potential for growth in non-seasonal chocolate as well.
Positive International Growth
The international segment performed ahead of expectations with strong organic sales growth in Brazil and share gains in India and other markets, driven by Reese’s brand activation and innovation.
Resilience in Sweets and Salty Snacks Categories
Sweets and salty snacks categories are performing well, with sweets up 10% and gaining 100 basis points in market share, and salty snacks showing growth despite private label reductions.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Cocoa Cost Concerns
Potential unmitigated impact of tariffs could reach $100 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4, with significant exposure to Cocoa and Canadian tariffs. Mitigation strategies are being explored, but the situation remains uncertain.
Decline in Q1 and Q2 EPS
The company expects a 30% decline in EPS for the first half of the year, with Q2 EPS decline driven by gross margin reduction of about 700 basis points and increased SG&A expenses.
Retail Environment and Consumer Sentiment
The company reported a challenging retail environment with softening consumer sentiment and increased value-seeking behaviors, particularly impacting the snacking segment.
Company Guidance
During The Hershey Company's Q1 2025 earnings call, significant guidance metrics were provided, including the expectation of a 15 to 20 base point impact on Q2 due to tariffs, with potential unmitigated impacts of up to $100 million per quarter for Q3 and Q4. EPS for the first half of the year is anticipated to decline by about 30%, with Q2 gross margin expected to be down approximately 700 basis points. SG&A dollars are projected to increase significantly, with high teens year-over-year growth in Q2. The company expects EPS for the full year to be down in the mid-30s, anticipating a 40% decline in the back half of the year. Despite challenges, Hershey remains optimistic about actions to mitigate tariff impacts and sees a path to earnings growth in 2026, even with current Cocoa levels.

The Hershey Company Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Hershey Approves Retention Awards for Key Executives
Neutral
Feb 25, 2025

On February 19, 2025, The Hershey Company’s Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved retention awards for key executives, including the CFO, Chief Supply Chain Officer, and Chief Technology Officer. These awards, in the form of time-based restricted stock units, are contingent on continued employment until March 19, 2027, and are designed to retain top talent within the company.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.